- Thread starter AlterEgo
- Start date
2023 Hurricane Season
- Status
Finally we "really" got rid of Hurricane Tammy, which was not that sure for a while, as it's way out was blocked on all sides but the SW(a unusual direction but possible and it would have brought DR into the danger zone).
It had a short time window to strengthen for the last time, running over 100mphr now on elevated forward speed to the NE.
It will face a dry mid atmosphere and high wind shear very soon, so that growth of powers will come to an end.
The Frontal and 2 high pressure ridges will turn it tonight and tomorrow morning NNW, late tomorrow even WNW and by late Friday/Early Saturday NW-NNW.
At least that is what the shifting pattern of those steering factors would leave as the only way to go. It should not be a Hurricane anymore by then, just a TS as the max powers to be awaited, passing somewhere in the area of Bermuda.
Sure nothing of such tracking is written in stone, as it is 3 different strong steering factors, shifting each independently of the other 2, the Tracking of the Storm is decided on the combination of the location and shifting of all 3 together.
But to me it looks like it will def stay out of our area/not come back down towards us and then very likely weaken quickly under dry air and wind shear wandering in NWern directions.
For the next days we should not see anything dangerous near our East.
Also our Tropical Highway contains a fairly dry mid atmosphere and for wide parts good wind shear, a lil safe guard now towards the final weeks of the season.
If just that Frontal would push some rain down towards my area. We have clouds nearby, as we already have since yesterday late afternoon, but so far aside of a few short sprinklings without getting the grounds wet, nothing of real rain.
Hope is the last to die, so i don't give up and may soon get some nice welcomed wash outs right here, lol.
It had a short time window to strengthen for the last time, running over 100mphr now on elevated forward speed to the NE.
It will face a dry mid atmosphere and high wind shear very soon, so that growth of powers will come to an end.
The Frontal and 2 high pressure ridges will turn it tonight and tomorrow morning NNW, late tomorrow even WNW and by late Friday/Early Saturday NW-NNW.
At least that is what the shifting pattern of those steering factors would leave as the only way to go. It should not be a Hurricane anymore by then, just a TS as the max powers to be awaited, passing somewhere in the area of Bermuda.
Sure nothing of such tracking is written in stone, as it is 3 different strong steering factors, shifting each independently of the other 2, the Tracking of the Storm is decided on the combination of the location and shifting of all 3 together.
But to me it looks like it will def stay out of our area/not come back down towards us and then very likely weaken quickly under dry air and wind shear wandering in NWern directions.
For the next days we should not see anything dangerous near our East.
Also our Tropical Highway contains a fairly dry mid atmosphere and for wide parts good wind shear, a lil safe guard now towards the final weeks of the season.
If just that Frontal would push some rain down towards my area. We have clouds nearby, as we already have since yesterday late afternoon, but so far aside of a few short sprinklings without getting the grounds wet, nothing of real rain.
Hope is the last to die, so i don't give up and may soon get some nice welcomed wash outs right here, lol.
I love this Vaguada, nice showers last night, a strong one 5:40AM today and since 45 minutes rain on/off. when it is On, then it is hard.
As I brought my daughter home from school, between La Otra Banda and Vallegina I was a few times at the point where I wanted to stop my car for missing visibility due too strong rain.
How does it look at the different locations around the Island with rain falls now?
As I brought my daughter home from school, between La Otra Banda and Vallegina I was a few times at the point where I wanted to stop my car for missing visibility due too strong rain.
How does it look at the different locations around the Island with rain falls now?
These are the folks you want to follow, Mike. Daily updates
Log into Facebook
Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.
web.facebook.com
Na, I prefer to get the real deal direct from people experiencing it.
To look those charts would be like me watching a weather station at the Punta Cana airport or at any hotel beach in PC for rai amounts and then projecting this to my place 10 miles back from the beach location, mostly 2 very different things.
To look those charts would be like me watching a weather station at the Punta Cana airport or at any hotel beach in PC for rai amounts and then projecting this to my place 10 miles back from the beach location, mostly 2 very different things.
This is the Area in the Caribbean Sea we will watch starting late weekend,
as awaited steering currents most likely bring it Northward, which could never exclude a NEward heading.
as awaited steering currents most likely bring it Northward, which could never exclude a NEward heading.
In Cabarete, we've been getting early morning rains almost every day. A couple pretty good downpours today. It's cooled off a little bit.
Showers off and on nearly all day both yesterday and today in Sosewer.
Heavy downpour around 3:45pm that lasted the better part of half an hour.
Overcast with cooler temperatures. I’m not complaining after the heat we’ve had. I had to dig out my rain jacket and a sweater because tomorrow looks like a good chance of the same, and through the weekend as well.
So now, that we all had a fresh cooler air good night's sleep after a period of over the top heat and humidity,
time to take a look on the unusual and almost crazy constellation of weather related factors out there.
First shot:
Tammy is back, a invincible Bit.ch it seems.
After Hurricane Tammy been absorbed by a Frontal, it's area is squeezed between 2 cold air parts, means it's warm temps rise up and keep it's cyclonic characteristics alife, and those are still quiet some strong powers.
Tammy is already swinging again, so I guess NOAA will show it as a self sustained Storm again on the 2PM forecast update.
In case of directions to go, it is Trapped, there is no way to go aside of weaker counter resistance for drifting very slowly W today and then maybe a SWern course. Again, at the moment it's surroundings do not show any real way out of there, hanging out E of Bermuda, so we may need to watch it again for the next several days, in case it would start moving, to see which direction it can go, as conditions to it's SWern path are going better from now, the wind shear is retreating there and this Low did pass strong windshear and heavy dry air before in fairly good shape.
2nd shot:
Disturbed Weather Conditions with strong Thunderstorms over the SWern Caribbean Sea.
This stuff is moving slowly NNEwards and NOAA is forecasting a Surface Low to show up somewhere there in that wide SWern Caribbean Sea Area for later this weekend. As conditions there are without dry air, free of wind shear and over hot Sea Surface, such upcoming Surface Low in the middle of these weather conditions could quickly lead to the presence of a TD somewhere far SSW of Jamaica, moving N or even NNE, a rare but actually very likely direction, as this will be the same trapped (by actual frontal and high pressure boundaries) as Tammy.
So we will follow up on this for the next days, even that it is a unusual area to get danger from for our Island, but it would not be a first.
As for our wish for rain and less humidity, I had perfect rain last night all night long on/off up here until almost 8AM this morning, surrounding clouds, moving very slow without any wind to feel, promise more for later today or tonight.
It looks like this weekend will not be great for our beach lovers, sorry for that,
but it looks like it will be perfect for us Vaqueros up here to get the cattle's grass regrowing quick and strong and juicy.
In half an hour I will be on my way to Higuey to get a load of Fertilizer to push it to the max under the actual perfect wet ground conditions.
So far no stormy dangers up to threaten us, but we will watch those above mentioned two areas for any development/tracking that could become a threat.
time to take a look on the unusual and almost crazy constellation of weather related factors out there.
First shot:
Tammy is back, a invincible Bit.ch it seems.
After Hurricane Tammy been absorbed by a Frontal, it's area is squeezed between 2 cold air parts, means it's warm temps rise up and keep it's cyclonic characteristics alife, and those are still quiet some strong powers.
Tammy is already swinging again, so I guess NOAA will show it as a self sustained Storm again on the 2PM forecast update.
In case of directions to go, it is Trapped, there is no way to go aside of weaker counter resistance for drifting very slowly W today and then maybe a SWern course. Again, at the moment it's surroundings do not show any real way out of there, hanging out E of Bermuda, so we may need to watch it again for the next several days, in case it would start moving, to see which direction it can go, as conditions to it's SWern path are going better from now, the wind shear is retreating there and this Low did pass strong windshear and heavy dry air before in fairly good shape.
2nd shot:
Disturbed Weather Conditions with strong Thunderstorms over the SWern Caribbean Sea.
This stuff is moving slowly NNEwards and NOAA is forecasting a Surface Low to show up somewhere there in that wide SWern Caribbean Sea Area for later this weekend. As conditions there are without dry air, free of wind shear and over hot Sea Surface, such upcoming Surface Low in the middle of these weather conditions could quickly lead to the presence of a TD somewhere far SSW of Jamaica, moving N or even NNE, a rare but actually very likely direction, as this will be the same trapped (by actual frontal and high pressure boundaries) as Tammy.
So we will follow up on this for the next days, even that it is a unusual area to get danger from for our Island, but it would not be a first.
As for our wish for rain and less humidity, I had perfect rain last night all night long on/off up here until almost 8AM this morning, surrounding clouds, moving very slow without any wind to feel, promise more for later today or tonight.
It looks like this weekend will not be great for our beach lovers, sorry for that,
but it looks like it will be perfect for us Vaqueros up here to get the cattle's grass regrowing quick and strong and juicy.
In half an hour I will be on my way to Higuey to get a load of Fertilizer to push it to the max under the actual perfect wet ground conditions.
So far no stormy dangers up to threaten us, but we will watch those above mentioned two areas for any development/tracking that could become a threat.
Tammy is shown as a TS again, on the edge to be almost a Hurricane.
At the moment it is almost stationary, NOAA shows it to finally move out Eastward, but there is actually not much space to move,
going to the E will mean it soon has to dive down S/SE.
It is uncertain how long it can stay alife, because towards the E it will face strong wind shear again.
At least, so far no danger for us Islanders.
The awaited Surface Low in the SWern Caribbean Sea, far SSW of Jamaica, is up and during the next days we will see what it can gather together to build something. It is too young to guess on final powers, so far it does not look very strong, but just in case we will watch.
At the moment it is almost stationary, NOAA shows it to finally move out Eastward, but there is actually not much space to move,
going to the E will mean it soon has to dive down S/SE.
It is uncertain how long it can stay alife, because towards the E it will face strong wind shear again.
At least, so far no danger for us Islanders.
The awaited Surface Low in the SWern Caribbean Sea, far SSW of Jamaica, is up and during the next days we will see what it can gather together to build something. It is too young to guess on final powers, so far it does not look very strong, but just in case we will watch.
What a beautiful start into the weekend.
After a nice morning shower I have here blue skies, no wind, so beach lovers and Vaqueros alike should be happy.
The Ocean is coming down but still has to be used with precaution, currents are strong, so drinking in the shade on a beach would be the better idea for today.
TS Tammy is trapped by the steering currents in the area E of Bermuda and will not have the powers to break through there anywhere.
It will circle around there until it's death, so even when a SWern Heading shows up, it is nothing to worry about.
The area where Tammy is trapped in is what I marked with the Green Box.
The Chart is the ole one from 2AM last night.
The Disturbance in the SWern Caribbean Sea does not show high powers, it is highly possible that no storm will form out of it.
We look so far great for the next days.
Have a fantastic weekend everybody.
After a nice morning shower I have here blue skies, no wind, so beach lovers and Vaqueros alike should be happy.
The Ocean is coming down but still has to be used with precaution, currents are strong, so drinking in the shade on a beach would be the better idea for today.
TS Tammy is trapped by the steering currents in the area E of Bermuda and will not have the powers to break through there anywhere.
It will circle around there until it's death, so even when a SWern Heading shows up, it is nothing to worry about.
The area where Tammy is trapped in is what I marked with the Green Box.
The Chart is the ole one from 2AM last night.
The Disturbance in the SWern Caribbean Sea does not show high powers, it is highly possible that no storm will form out of it.
We look so far great for the next days.
Have a fantastic weekend everybody.
And here we see how our weather can always be full of surprises.
We have now a Low Pressure Area up right NE of DR, unexpected and not been forecasted by any long range model.
It is too young to be detailed about it, so far NOAA sees it weak and moving NWwards.
So we will watch this one, to see if there could be something bothering coming out of it, what at this moment seems not to be the case.
We have now a Low Pressure Area up right NE of DR, unexpected and not been forecasted by any long range model.
It is too young to be detailed about it, so far NOAA sees it weak and moving NWwards.
So we will watch this one, to see if there could be something bothering coming out of it, what at this moment seems not to be the case.
Late Saturday night update.
No matter what AL96 develops in to, it very likely will bring more wet stuff over parts of the DR SE.
I know people hate me for that, but I welcome each drop of it, lol.
So far no danger for our Island anywhere out there, just some clouds/rain.
No matter what AL96 develops in to, it very likely will bring more wet stuff over parts of the DR SE.
I know people hate me for that, but I welcome each drop of it, lol.
So far no danger for our Island anywhere out there, just some clouds/rain.
The SWern Caribbean Sea cleared without the disturbance developing into a storm.
The Disturbance N of DR looks like a TS Force but under heavy wind shear, so it will die the next days on it's NW Tracking.
Tammy stays trapped and is loosing powers, it is an other one that is about to die.
Meanwhile the Central Caribbean Sea is clear of dry air and wind shear, so what comes up there would actually have favorable conditions.
NOAA shows high chances for the forming of a Low there during the next days.
So far no dangers in vicinity for us,
so let's enjoy a great Sunday for all.
The Disturbance N of DR looks like a TS Force but under heavy wind shear, so it will die the next days on it's NW Tracking.
Tammy stays trapped and is loosing powers, it is an other one that is about to die.
Meanwhile the Central Caribbean Sea is clear of dry air and wind shear, so what comes up there would actually have favorable conditions.
NOAA shows high chances for the forming of a Low there during the next days.
So far no dangers in vicinity for us,
so let's enjoy a great Sunday for all.
So DR1/AL97 is wandering E-W through the Central Caribbean Sea and conditions towards the West are favorable to form a TD/TS this week, even that I do not see it as a powerful disturbance at this point, but such could change, of course.
It's bypass on our S should keep our grounds nicely light wet, so far no dangerous powers in sight anywhere.
It's bypass on our S should keep our grounds nicely light wet, so far no dangerous powers in sight anywhere.
Here around my soil I have since days every once in a while a few minutes of a good sprinkle, sometimes even a few minutes strong, day and night, perfect for the grounds, but during the days plenty of sun hours to have the batteries fully charged before 10:30AM and enough sun hours to keep the Tinacos filled by solar water pump.
I am lately always in a bad situation personally with da weather, as for my excursions i need sunshine and for the Ranch i give a fu.ck on the sun and love some good rain, lol.
As I am a positive person, i always see it from the correct side and win, no matter we have rain or shine, haha.
As far as our AL97 disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is concerned, it already brought today a few clouds over my Eastern soil today and may bring some more rain drops over some on it's westward track tonight, but other than that no affects to be awaited for us from this one.
It anyways looks week and will very likely not even make it to be a TD/TS, at least not as long as near our S.
Looks all storm free for us for these days and in addition we will keep receiving welcomed rain falls over many areas.
I am lately always in a bad situation personally with da weather, as for my excursions i need sunshine and for the Ranch i give a fu.ck on the sun and love some good rain, lol.
As I am a positive person, i always see it from the correct side and win, no matter we have rain or shine, haha.
As far as our AL97 disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is concerned, it already brought today a few clouds over my Eastern soil today and may bring some more rain drops over some on it's westward track tonight, but other than that no affects to be awaited for us from this one.
It anyways looks week and will very likely not even make it to be a TD/TS, at least not as long as near our S.
Looks all storm free for us for these days and in addition we will keep receiving welcomed rain falls over many areas.
While there is still barely any bothering dry air on the mid level over our highway,
it is actually covered by high level wind shear,
so for the next days/this weekend we should be safe from out of the far east from our soil.
It is still a bit too early to call the season a day,
but actual trends put us on the safe side and it "may be done already", but that's not something i would bet on, lol.
Have a perfect enjoyable weekend everybody.
it is actually covered by high level wind shear,
so for the next days/this weekend we should be safe from out of the far east from our soil.
It is still a bit too early to call the season a day,
but actual trends put us on the safe side and it "may be done already", but that's not something i would bet on, lol.
Have a perfect enjoyable weekend everybody.
- Status