2024 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

Naa,
it is just a Surface Low not associated with any disturbed weather, carried by a Tropical Wave Westward, as all TWs do.
for the next several days the conditions on its way would not allow that anything could form up out of it.
Once close to the Next Weekend, approaching the Leeward Islands, it "could" get better conditions, but such could not be forecasted for a week or even more ahead of time.
Even If it would start to form something later next week, it's directions would not be something heading towards DR, sch would be a Norther Runner missing us well out off our NE.
But again, conditions can not be forecasted with any certainty for a week in advance.
At this moment ad for several days to come we have absolutely Nothing on the Radar that could become of interest for DR.

 

[jose949]

https://weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL94_2024101312_GEFS_large.png?1728840960

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[MikeFisher]

Such Direction is not unlikely if the Ridge blocking Northern Directions stays up and strong.
Close to the weekend AL94 could become a Tropical Depression/maybe even a Tropical Storm. It can not be def told or powers estimated until the actually harmless Low Pressure Area running under dry atmosphere, hindering any development for several more days, will have reached more favorable conditions.
The steering patterns shown for late this week/next weekend will move it, no matter if it will become a TD or not, towards WNW-NWern directions, what means it may brush over the Northernmost Leeward Islands or (more likely) miss the Islands nearby on their NE.
From there on the steering "could" move it West towards the E of DR, but those steering patterns are not written in stone this far out, they constantly shift.
It is so far in no way headed towards anywhere near DR.
Sure such could always change, but it will not be known/could not be accurately forecasted before it reaches favorable conditions late this week to start developing into something or not.
So by Today and before Wednesday/Thursday as the earliest, there will not be any accurate forecast, as it will not exist as a threat before then.

Red Circle is AL94.
Blue Circle is the Center of the High.
Blue Line is the basic steering pattern for AL94 defined by the boundary of the High.
Red Line is the BLOCK of way
Green Line is the direction the Low or TD or TS should follow.At the way-devision of that green line the by then really present cnditions decide if it breaks through a Low influence Ridge following the give steering patterns by the High
Or if it will avoid the Ridge and wander parallel to the Ridge S of it, which would bring it close to or right on DR,
which could be from E-W or NE-SW, where ever exactly the Low/TD/TS will be positioned at that moment of time and what the real and exact conditions in that area will be at that time.

The Red Circle is the Area of Low Pressure, by the NHC named AL94.
The big blueish circle is the heavy dry air in its way,
which is actually hindering any development and should stay up bothering for at least 2 more days, maybe more.

 

[chico bill]

Only a few more weeks to see if we dodged a hurricane for this season. Seems the days are shorter and that may help cool the ocean, but I'm not sure cooler moister air is necessarily a good thing to stifle storm development ?

 

[MikeFisher]

The later into Fall the cooler the Ocean gets, yes, specially it´s ¨Heat Content¨, means how deep warm temperatures rech. The Deeper the ehat reaches the more powerful those waters are as fuel for a Storm.
The Gulf is already well cooler than at its peak times, but still we just saw recently 2 big ones growing on top speed over there.
Here our Caribbean Sea is still on very hot Sea Surface Temperatures, it can take an other 6'7 weeks to get them down below the treashhold point,
but there are other factors involved, like a dense dry mid atmosphere and high windshear, once those are up steadily we can end the Season even that the Caribbean Sea may still have a hot enough Ocean Surface capable to fuel a TS.
Right now we are just towards the end of our DR Peak Time for Stormy bothers.
For now let´s see what AL94 looks like in a couple days/Thursday morning.

 

[MikeFisher]

And to me, the way the steering influences shift will open a Path for a Break Through up on the Map.
Before hitting the Leeward Islands this System or by then maybe Storm will have a Heading to WNW-NW,
so it should never get any heading towards DR, just lingering around nearby on a pass to the NE as the closest.

 

[MikeFisher]

The weekend outlook looks good for the coming one.
AL94 did not organize, the window for development is almost over, so there will not be any storm coming out of this disturbance.
It will pass on WNWern Heading off our NE and N and may bring some welcome rain, nothing mayor and nothing of a threat at all.
So far no more disturbances on the radar of the NHC for the next days as far as DR is concerned.

 

[JD Jones]

Dum, dum, dum, another one bites the dust. And another one down, and another one down, and another one bites the dust...

 

[Brooklin]

The weekend outlook looks good for the coming one.
AL94 did not organize, the window for development is almost over, so there will not be any storm coming out of this disturbance.
It will pass on WNWern Heading off our NE and N and may bring some welcome rain, nothing mayor and nothing of a threat at all.
So far no more disturbances on the radar of the NHC for the next days as far as DR is concerned.

Thank you so much Mike - great news !! John - Brooklin (Bubba King)

 

[MikeFisher]

Not to worry about AL94, which will get a number or even a name this Noon/early Afternoon.
It already passed most of our North nice Off over Sea and it will not turn S or such to meet DR Soil.
Warnings will come out for the SE of the Bahamas, Turks, NW Haiti and SE Cuba.
No Warnings nor Dangers for anywhere in DR.
The Low moves as awaited since a week already, the only difference is that the short time window for development added a few more hours, so it will reach TD or even TS Status instead of staying just a strong Low with some Disturbed weather spread out.
At this point there is not forecast about "powers" further into the future, as Upper Level Winds are quiet harsh and forecasted to stay up that way, so that it should become a short lived storm.
Steering patterns keep it trapped down here in the Tropics, no way out towards the N, it could easily even get a SWern Heading for a piiece of it's way.
None of those ways will bring it towards DR,
so as it is near we will watch it, as you never know when such thing does something unexpected,
but of course all BBQ plans for today and tomorrow stay up and running.

Have a great weekend everyone.

 

[NanSanPedro]

Not to worry about AL94, which will get a number or even a name this Noon/early Afternoon.
It already passed most of our North nice Off over Sea and it will not turn S or such to meet DR Soil.
Warnings will come out for the SE of the Bahamas, Turks, NW Haiti and SE Cuba.
No Warnings nor Dangers for anywhere in DR.
The Low moves as awaited since a week already, the only difference is that the short time window for development added a few more hours, so it will reach TD or even TS Status instead of staying just a strong Low with some Disturbed weather spread out.
At this point there is not forecast about "powers" further into the future, as Upper Level Winds are quiet harsh and forecasted to stay up that way, so that it should become a short lived storm.
Steering patterns keep it trapped down here in the Tropics, no way out towards the N, it could easily even get a SWern Heading for a piiece of it's way.
None of those ways will bring it towards DR,
so as it is near we will watch it, as you never know when such thing does something unexpected,
but of course all BBQ plans for today and tomorrow stay up and running.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Well, I guess the good news for Cuba is that since they've already lost power island wide, they don't have to worry about losing it again.

 

[MikeFisher]

So just to stay complete on our info here,
TS Oscar is up and as expected will run WSWwards during this weekend.
Somewhere during Monday it will find a break through to turn sharp N and then leave the Caribbean towards a NEern Heading, going down, it will just be a short lived "Storm" and join the List of the so many No Shows for DR, or as someone mentioned above: an otha one bites the Dust.
Keep the beers cold and refill the Grills.
Here at my place I leave the BBQ to my Son, as it is without being near the BBQ sufficient hot and humid, zero wind to feel today up here on my little Hill in the Orange Valley over Punta Cana.
If anybody is in the area, chime in, here always everybody is welcome,
we will be eating fresh killed meats and drinking cold beers and liqueurs all afternoon long,
a typical Saturday at my Turf, lol.

 

[MariaRubia]

I was looking at the NHC Discussion on now Hurricane Oscar, they are saying that it has intensified so rapidly into a hurricane that it has caught everyone a bit off guard. Still no issues predicted for DR but could be damaging to Cuba, Turks and Caicos even though it is small.

 

[MikeFisher]

Yes, Oscar did on intensification catch everybody off guards including the NHC,
I would not have seen it as a Hurricane neither.
It is it's southward move WSW that keeps it longer off the harsh windshear than expected, so it got more time for intensification.
The tracking forecast was just a very small tad bit off towrads the S, but thats the few miles it stays away from what will bring it down.
It still will not survive the weekend as a Hurricane but touch SE Cuba harder than expected in case of wind powers.
But as it is no threat for DR I am not following on it other than to watch the every 6hrs NHC updates.
Our DR Saturday here at my turf with visiting friends been a torching hot one without a drop of rain and no wind of any kind in PC today.

 

[MikeFisher]

Harsh conditions over our Tropical Highway look good, we may be able to call season a day early this season.
Over the Caribbean Sea conditions are the opposite, quiet favorable for anything coming up to develop quickly,
but I am a positive thinking person and do not await anything until next year's season.
Sure I keep watching, ya never know.
For This weekend we are al around fine.

Cheers.

 

[bob saunders]

flooding in Santiago this afternoon.

 

[MikeFisher]

Nothing on the radar to be concerned about, but NHC forecasts a disturbed weather area for the SWern Caribben Sea later this week.
At the moment that area is under high wind shear, but this is forecasted to move out in the next days.
The Steering Patterns do not allow the typical W or NWern heading,
so what ever may come out of this disturbed dweather, could become a "Wrong Way Lenny", the ole guys and gals on DR1 will remember what that was, lol.
Starting by mid week we will keep an close eye on this system, if it becomes one.

Cheers on a great Sunday for everyone, it is darn hot and humid up here on my lil hill.

 

[Brooklin]

Hi Mike - any indication of the effect that the disturbance shown on the NHC site may have on the DR in the next few days ?

John - Brooklin (Bubba King)

 

[MikeFisher]

2nd rainy day here over PPC today and we will get a few more of this very very likely.
It is not a storm nor brewing hurricane or such,
but a Trough of a low surface pressure area over PR moving WNW along the Greater Antilles for the next several days,
so we have to expect more rain which in some areas could be torrential/produce flooding etc.
We will enjoy the coming weekend nonetheless.

EDT: Sorry that this shows up so late this evening, I wrote it by Noon but forgot to "Post" it, lol.

 

[MikeFisher]

Hi Mike - any indication of the effect that the disturbance shown on the NHC site may have on the DR in the next few days ?

John - Brooklin (Bubba King)

John,
thanks to your question i got a email notification and saw that I forgot to "post" my last Post.
La edad no perdona, jjj.
As I wrote above is the answer.
In around 30 minutes the NHC will update their outlook, maybe we get some news on it.
Sometimes, when such yhing moves as slow as this one does, it runs dry on one place and continues without significant furtehr rainfalls.
But so far it looks wet.