2024 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

Full constantly torrentially rainy night for me here, it stopped shortly before I woke the Kids for school at 5:45AM.
The heavy thick cloud cover broke of quickly and my solar panels are producing power for the batteries almost since the sun rose over the horizon.
Since some lighter clouds and the sun change places, looks good so far for more improvement towards sunnier times.
The Trough rained down a lot, emptied it's southern portions over us, on the Radar it looks like the S of it went dry and has not much left to bother us.
We have to enjoy every dry hour, at many places sure urgently needed to dry flooded areas/intersections and other bad engineered cemented areas,
before we may get more in a week from now, but that is nothing written in stone, zero developed to date.
It is a disturbed weather area coming together very slowly from the Central to the SWern Caribbean Sea.
Development, if any, will be slow, there is highest wind shear present, steering patterns do not bring it in any direction towards the DR, as would have been the case some days/a week ago, the open path now points from there Northwards in NNWern directions.
This area will spread out rainy skies over a wide area, depending where exactly it forms will decide if we get nothing/little/heavy portions sent over to DR.
Which parts of DR, If any, will/could be affected, can not be told until the disturbed area gets organized and moving.
Who is vulnerable for flood dangers def should monitor the local forecasts.
As far as Tropical Storms or Hurricaes go, we have nothing of such on the Maps/Radar for this week/weekend
and for next week, IF the system in the Central/SWerm Caribbean Sea gets organized, it will not come in any direction towards DR, no matter what could form out of that disturbance.
Yesterday we had just 24C daytime temps here at my place, a very very strange thing of a FREEZING COLD Alaska Simulation for this time of the year.
Is Ice Age coming very soon? lol
Have a great weekend everyone, don't drown your cars and keep the BBQ dry.

 

[cavok]

For a tropical depression, we sure are getting a lot of rain in Cabarete today. I had to go to SD on Wednesday. It rained very hard without any break all the way from Sabaneta on Hwy 21 to Villa Altagracia on the autotpista. At times it was a torrential downpour. Solid rain all the way. Never got over 50mph. Longest trip ever to SD.

 

[MikeFisher]

For a tropical depression, we sure are getting a lot of rain in Cabarete today. I had to go to SD on Wednesday. It rained very hard without any break all the way from Sabaneta on Hwy 21 to Villa Altagracia on the autotpista. At times it was a torrential downpour. Solid rain all the way. Never got over 50mph. Longest trip ever to SD.

There is not even a Tripal Depression, it is a simple Trough taht moves slow and pours down over a very wide covered area.
No matter what its named, we received at many parts heaviest rainfalls.

 

[cavok]

There is not even a Tripal Depression, it is a simple Trough taht moves slow and pours down over a very wide covered area.
No matter what its named, we received at many parts heaviest rainfalls.

That trip to SD, I have never seen it rain so hard for so long over such a long distance. It was unreal.

 

[MikeFisher]

Yeah, I had the same here yesterday and last night it rained at my place non-stop all night long until around 5:30AM.

 

[DrNoob]

Any chance the conditions improve week after next ? I am seeing doom and gloom for 10 more days on social media channels. Thanks !

 

[MikeFisher]

What social media channels would be able to look on the weater for 10 days in advance?
Useless waste of time to discuss such.
The Windshear over the SWern and Wern Caribbean Sea is since last night on retreat, so conditions will start to get in favor of a brewing storm.
I would estimate Tuesday to find a TD on the Map in the SWern Caribbean Sea, no later than Wednesday afternoon.
It will take in/absorb the Trough which is actualy on the N of the Grater Antilles, so the clouds and thunder of the Trough may be pulled over Hispaniola on their way to become part of the upcoming TD/TS.
That Trough contains thunder and heavy rains over very wide extended 250 Miles N and NE out.
So yes, we may get a bunch of more rainy days here at some areas of DR.
At my place it stayed dry yesterday all day long and it is a sunny day so far today, but thick white clouds are also seen around, so it will be like yesterday, a mix of sun and a bit of cloud cover, some isolated areas around me in PC and Higuey may get some short showers, other areas in the same region will stay completely dry like yesterday.
At the moment the "dry" S of the Trough is over DR, the heavy rain and thunder are located on it's N and NE Quadrants, as it already rained down its southern waters over us 2 and 3 days ago.
Don't get fooled by that, the S of it stil has smaller portions with heavy rain, so at these exact locations where those rains down, there will be heavy water running through the streets.
We should stay under the influence of the interaction of those 2 weather areas for quiet some more days, but such long range look into the future is in case of the weater impossible. I see it possible to stay under that influence until friday or next saturday, but such can not be forecasted over such time span, a lot could happen with the weather in that time unexpectadely.
So for now we just have to enjoy a fantastic weekend.

 

[DrNoob]

Thank you, what you say makes sense. I will have to monitor flights for this week to make a decision on my travel then.

 

[MikeFisher]

So we made it fine through the weekend, but the weather stays weird stil for this new week.
In the SWern Caribbean Sea the 18th storm of the season is up, TD18.
It is moving N towards jamaica and should turn more towards NW heading for Western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.
As for development, that should not be too fast during tomorrow/monday but then a ca 24hrs window is open with favorable conditions from Tuesday Night til Wednesday Night, while it moves around Western Cuba. The NHC gives it enough development to become a Hurricane over the Cayman Islands.
The States along the Nortern Gulf of Mexico sure will monitor this one closely.
If or how much of clouds will reach DR I can not estimate at this moment, we would only be near the outer bands spreading out on it's E/NE.
The influence of the Trough, which bothers us since quiet a while, will go down,
but at the same time the NHC gives a Trough N of the Leeward Islands good chances to interact with the present moisture N of the Greater Antilles.
It is a Wward mover and will/would follow the same path as the actual Trough wandered along the N of the Greater Antilles during the last so many days.
We will guaranteed not catch any drought period this month, lol.
The good news for DR:
We are not in any storm danger, nothing of a storm is heading near ourself nor expected to form en route to us.

 

[MariaRubia]

So we made it fine through the weekend, but the weather stays weird stil for this new week.
In the SWern Caribbean Sea the 18th storm of the season is up, TD18.
It is moving N towards jamaica and should turn more towards NW heading for Western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.
As for development, that should not be too fast during tomorrow/monday but then a ca 24hrs window is open with favorable conditions from Tuesday Night til Wednesday Night, while it moves around Western Cuba. The NHC gives it enough development to become a Hurricane over the Cayman Islands.
The States along the Nortern Gulf of Mexico sure will monitor this one closely.
If or how much of clouds will reach DR I can not estimate at this moment, we would only be near the outer bands spreading out on it's E/NE.
The influence of the Trough, which bothers us since quiet a while, will go down,
but at the same time the NHC gives a Trough N of the Leeward Islands good chances to interact with the present moisture N of the Greater Antilles.
It is a Wward mover and will/would follow the same path as the actual Trough wandered along the N of the Greater Antilles during the last so many days.
We will guaranteed not catch any drought period this month, lol.
The good news for DR:
We are not in any storm danger, nothing of a storm is heading near ourself nor expected to form en route to us.

As if the slow season hasn't been hard enough on the north coast this year, now November's going to be a wash-out.

 

[MikeFisher]

As if the slow season hasn't been hard enough on the north coast this year, now November's going to be a wash-out.

exactly the same for Punta Cana, but not just November, we are under rain since the last week of october already, and to be continued.

 

[MikeFisher]

So while it pours down cats and dogs on me since 25 minutes, time to have a look on the storm front for the week/days to come.
TD18 is on it's development status to become the next Hurricane.
It's Tracking is toward NW, so it will pass very close to Jamaica and then over the Westernn Tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
It will never come close to DR.
The rain & thunder area (marked as BLUE Circle) moves N/NW/some NE onwards Hispaniola, water for most of the Island/if not all, to be expected.
The Red Circles are the large Moisture areas close/right at a Trough which is acting high up. Development of this interaction will not happen, the windshear up North is too high to allow a Tropical or Subtropical storm formation to develop during the next 2-3 days.
At the moment it looks as if this one will move a tad bit more off our North than the Trough that just bothered us for a week,
so tere is a chance to not get too much water from this one, on top of the water we will anyways get during this week.
It wil move from E to W/WNW towards the SEern Bahamas along our North Shores.
The most appropriate song to play these days is the good ole Balad "November Rain".
A seldom/unusual constellation we are in since a week, different weather occurances acting in a way where our Island is trapped in the middle between them.
Considering that we got nothing of those 18 storms of the season on our soil I would say this wet finish of the 2024 Hurricane Season is acceptable as our share, for not being hit by any sh.it all summer long.
Water reservoirs, which get filled up during our winters, will this year have a good level from the start, this water is life and necessary for everthing.
As a Farmer with cattle ad wild pork breeds on my lil Ranch in Punta Cana, I must say this summer/fall/Hurricane Season has been perfect to me and all Ranch neighbours around. No danger/storm damage of any kind and nothing of our usual summer drought periods, every time when it started to look dry we got some good water in, the short periods in between could be covered by solar water pumps.
For the next days, report here where and what amount(nothing/drizzle/wet/wash out) of water you receive and in which area of DR you are.

Here is the actual windshear chart.
Conditions for TD18 are good, so I don't doubt that a Hurricane will be on the Map around tomorrow night.

 

[MikeFisher]

No big news for our weather for the next days/this coming weekend.
It is raining with good wind gusts here at my place as we speak, going this way for a few times since this morning, which started only for the first couple hours after sun rise with the sun out.
The Blue Area is what is on us as we speak, it contains good amounts of rain to go down isolated by areas, but where it goes down it comes with wind and thunder. My Labrador Tobi is sleeping under my desk at this moment, so you know where the Thunder rolls at this moment, lol.
The Red Area is what NHC showed as a Upper Level Trough since many days, since it was lingering several hundred miles NE of the Nortehrn Leeward Islands.
It is slowly producing a Surface Low Pressure Area. I dont see it to develop to become a storm, but it def is a very wide elongated area of rain with some thunder and medium wind cells This is moving mainly Westward, so it will pass most likely Offshore of the DR North Shores.
How far/close, I could not tell, it moves slowly in Western Directions and could bring us over the weekend some more rain on top of what we already get now.
As a Farmer with fresh seeds out, I will not complain, actually the rains of the last couple weeks been perefct for my lil Ranch, no solar water pumps running to bring water up from 400ft of depth from my well, no over night running of the diesel pump to keep the grounds wet.
But it is not what we wish/need for our Tourism Industry around nor for our Sunday Afternoon BBQs.
I personally prefer to burn some gallons of diesel over night and refill the water tanks then with solar power during a sunny day while the meat is smoking on the BBQ.
But it is what it is, we could not change a thing of it, so we have to live with it.
This Fall is def not a usual pattern of our tropical weather, but it is something that always could happen at any time of the year, the same as at any time a drought period of some weeksmonths could pop up.
The Good Thing:
As the Hurricane Season is almost officially over, we still have No Danger in sight, no storms expected to develop, nothing of such anywhere near DR nor on a ways towards us.
Hurricane Rafael is the only active storm at the moment and it was never a threat for DR.
We make the best out of any situation.
Cheers and have a great weekend ahead everyone.

 

[MikeFisher]

Today it is a nice sunny day on my soil, but of course some clouds will continue to move through later on.
For now my Housedragon is washing clothes and solar panels charge the batteries, which did not reach a 100% charge since a couple weeks and they will not reach that today, neither.
The Trough is moving/connecting a super wie area of moisture/cloudsreaching from over 300 miles N of the Leeward Islands South to the North Shores of the Southamerican Continent and to the Eastern Tip of Cuba.
It moves W to WNW, so as you can see on the map, the harshest part already went over us.
What is left to pass over us today, tonight and until tomorrow/Saturday afternoon is hit&miss, there will be certain areas that get a good watering even maybe with some nasty wind gusts, while other parts stay dry or do not get anything worth to report about.
It def should be the "rests" of a very unusually wet Fall-period, so we then can switch to our normal patterns this time of the year, 2-3 good rainbfalls per week preferablly over night, lol, and sunny warm 28-31C winter days to enjoy our caribbean tropical climate to the fullest.
Be carefull with the soon to come Cold Nights(coldest point to be reached, of course, in the morning shortly before sun rise, when our temps drop from 28-31C daytime to freezing 20-23C Night Lows, which def feel "fresh" for rea Islanders and duribg extreme cold nights can drop down to 16-18C. Those Temps are for my home in Punta Cana only,, the rest of DR has many different areas with very different high/Low temps to get, like our Town House in the Cibao, most years we spent Easter Week and an other 2 weeks for New Year there, at that place over New Years this ole man is sleeping in his long jogging pants lol.
As for our Hurricane Season, as said a while back, the only places that could still favor storm development are the SW and W Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. For all the rest of the Basin the high level winds are since already 2 weeks way too harsh to allow anything of significance to form.
This could be the end of a super smooth and non-action season for us in DR, despite all those long range outlooks promising some super active things.
It is all about the Where and When a storm forms up, solely numbers of storms per season are unsignificant for us Islanders.

Hey, Sunday could already be nice again for the BBQ to run.
Cheers.

 

[reilleyp]

Steady heavy rain in Samana overnight. Lots of standing water and the hill going into Samana is a small river.

 

[Jan]

It was announced that the Presa de Aguacate on Río Nizao, San Cristobal is full and they will be releasing water on Monday November 11. There is a warning for no swimming in Rio Nizao and to be cautious in the area. https://www.diariolibre.com/planeta...l-proximo-lunes-prohibe-uso-rio-nizao/2906675

 

[MikeFisher]

I left the Finca to refill the cansiters for the power generator, as of lately the solar power is good for during the days but not enough battery load to run the tv's and playstations and freezers through the nights.
on my way back from the Gas Station on the corner of the Boulevard del este to the lil Highway going around Veron, it started 1hrs ago.
The whole way up from Veron to Vallegina the street is under half a feet of water at the best passable locations and a full river for the rest of the way.
small cars standing everywhere on the side of the road.
Now back home, it is easing somewhat, but still steady strong rain.
I did not see a single sunray today so far, lol.
looks like a sunday family watching the TVs and playing indoors.
Stay save everyone where it rains that hard.
2 simple TS walking right over us would not have brought a fraction of the water of what we have as of lately.
The Joys of Non-Hurricane Season Weather.

 

[JD Jones]

Raining here since yesterday. Pretty much non-stop.

 

[MikeFisher]

This is what we have since already 3hrs now.
I have no idea why I installed a expensive system with a solar powered water pump to keep the plants around wet.
That must have been a sunday afternoon BBQ Beer idea of mine, lol.

 

[reilleyp]

My wife always said that the heavy rains trigger the earthquakes. I assumed it was an old wives tale, but there were just two strong ones below Cuba and now I just saw a report of one near Saona Island.