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Banco Central Certificates
Help me out here, people. I was one of the unfortunate ones and got caught in Baniter. The BC made me whole, at a price ( lock in for another year or take a discount and flee ). I stayed. And increased my bet. Last year I rolled over and added more. I was given 55% then. Lucky, for once.My reasoning goes something like this: Since I'll be spending peso in the D.R. and nowhere else can I get anywhere near those rates, why not? To protect against a devaluation, like the one that occured , I re-purchase at whatever % the devaluation is. If there is a considerable appreciation I take some off the table.
I belive that I'm protecting my self from losing the value of earning these high rates of return. Having decided what amount of money I'll need on an annual basis that's the amount of dollars I'll deposit to generate that amount. Thus, my real cost to visit is close to zero. Sort of like averaging down/up with the presumption that the D.R.dollar cant go lower than 100%. Also I reason that any radical change in the value of the Peso will generate a coresponding change in the amount offered for investment dollars.
How far offn am I? Where is the devil in these details? Thanks, John
I belive that I'm protecting my self from losing the value of earning these high rates of return. Having decided what amount of money I'll need on an annual basis that's the amount of dollars I'll deposit to generate that amount. Thus, my real cost to visit is close to zero. Sort of like averaging down/up with the presumption that the D.R.dollar cant go lower than 100%. Also I reason that any radical change in the value of the Peso will generate a coresponding change in the amount offered for investment dollars.
How far offn am I? Where is the devil in these details? Thanks, John
duhtree said:
As tempted as I am to stay off this post, specialy now that both Lurch and Escott want a piece of my arse... I think your strategie is a good one, I have developed something similar and it seems to be working just fine!
Good luck with your investment....
Escott said:
I feel for you Es , been there and done that!...
As for my little adventure, well, my guests turn out to be a little more adventurous then expected and ended up at the local hore house. I lost site of them once we got there... Hey, you know what they say : Tricks are for kids...
Answers to NotLurking, found in CB website
1) DR$124.49Billion is the official and latest total for Banco Central Certificates. Note that this number only includes the weekly auctions plus the direct sales loosely based on these weekly auctions.
The Central Bank Website updates this number weekly. When the new number comes out this week, the number will change.
The numbers you see in DR1 News (DR$127), or in Hoy.com.do (DR$130Billion) are not the latest and most accurate. They may be adding in other forms of Central Bank debt (which might be a reasonable thing to do).
2) Why the difference between "auction" and "direct" interest rates? Read the following Central Bank paragraph, in the Long Term Certificate section, pay close attention to the last sentence:
"P?rrafo: En adici?n al mecanismo de subastas p?blicas competitivas, el Banco Central podr? colocar directamente al p?blico en general los Certificados de Inversi?n de Largo Plazo referidos en este Ordinal, asumiendo como prima de tasa de inter?s fija anual, el promedio ponderado resultante en la ?ltima subasta competitiva, que se haya realizado para los Certificados de Inversi?n de Largo Plazo autorizados mediante la presente Resoluci?n, deduciendo un margen que deber? ser determinado por el Comit? de Mercado Abierto del Banco Central."
1) DR$124.49Billion is the official and latest total for Banco Central Certificates. Note that this number only includes the weekly auctions plus the direct sales loosely based on these weekly auctions.
The Central Bank Website updates this number weekly. When the new number comes out this week, the number will change.
The numbers you see in DR1 News (DR$127), or in Hoy.com.do (DR$130Billion) are not the latest and most accurate. They may be adding in other forms of Central Bank debt (which might be a reasonable thing to do).
2) Why the difference between "auction" and "direct" interest rates? Read the following Central Bank paragraph, in the Long Term Certificate section, pay close attention to the last sentence:
"P?rrafo: En adici?n al mecanismo de subastas p?blicas competitivas, el Banco Central podr? colocar directamente al p?blico en general los Certificados de Inversi?n de Largo Plazo referidos en este Ordinal, asumiendo como prima de tasa de inter?s fija anual, el promedio ponderado resultante en la ?ltima subasta competitiva, que se haya realizado para los Certificados de Inversi?n de Largo Plazo autorizados mediante la presente Resoluci?n, deduciendo un margen que deber? ser determinado por el Comit? de Mercado Abierto del Banco Central."
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hoy.com.do article
For those nerds who can read Spanish. This is a reasonable article on Central Bank Certificates.
http://hoy.com.do/app/article.aspx?id=39598
For those nerds who can read Spanish. This is a reasonable article on Central Bank Certificates.
http://hoy.com.do/app/article.aspx?id=39598
Pesos going up, up and away
I am sorry for quoting myself, but this is to good to hold back on!
As any one seen the pesos today " 27.30 to 1 "
WATCH OUT " MY SOURCES CLAIM THE PESOS WILL HIT 25 SOON! "
Offcourse the CB CD'S will be auction under 16% annual shortly...
I LOVE DR !!!
(I should of invested all my freaking money....WHY did I listen to lurch???) :ermm:
iluvdr said:One down on this forum !
There out to be some sort of an ethics committee on this forum... The nerve of some people calling others ignorant or uneducated!!! Who?s the donkey now?
Seems like there is no stopping the pesos ... to all of you interested in investing in CB CD's ...Just a small hint, it want get any better then this! Fasten your seat belt, the currency should rise very strongly in the coming months, unfortunately the interest rates will start to decline as well! No one could predict for how long this window of opportunity will stay open?
Unlike some people, if I am wrong on this, I will gladly apologize to the whole forum and kiss a donkey on it?s rear end(and you could take that promise to the bank!)
I am sorry for quoting myself, but this is to good to hold back on!
As any one seen the pesos today " 27.30 to 1 "
WATCH OUT " MY SOURCES CLAIM THE PESOS WILL HIT 25 SOON! "
Offcourse the CB CD'S will be auction under 16% annual shortly...
I LOVE DR !!!
(I should of invested all my freaking money....WHY did I listen to lurch???) :ermm:
iluvdr said:
Now now Iluvrdr, I promised to wait properly in line before having my usual go at you (not that it ever gets through).
Have you taken notice the DR1 news over the last couple of days (If you could read Spanish I would mention the other websites, btw how can you invest (in your case take a spin on the roulette wheel) in a 3rd world country and not at least read the language?
To make my point the RD economy is now grinding quite harshly beyond a halt. I believe the words "collapse", "rising unemployment" and "stagnation" were actually used in the articles, a tad harsh in the case of "collapse" but not completely without merit. :bunny:
Now what would be causing this (taking a moment to scratch my arrogant head), oh could it be that the peso is so grossly overvalued that the RD has lost any competitive advantage it may or may not have had in the past? :surprised The excessive taxes to cover the estimated 100,000 bolletas (if someone has updated numbers I would love to see them) that every report indicates are not only unnecessary but a burden upon the RD. The taxes to cover the cooking of the RD CB books? :bandit: Perhaps to cover the transparent corruption of the proposed SD metro? :bandit:
I have mentioned many times before governments around the world can manipulate their currency until their hearts are quite content, but the market will always force corrective actions or the consequences shall be seen. Patience my boy, patience. :cheeky:
Escott said:Dont ever sweat the petty people, pet them
How was my first attempt at a patronizing post? :ninja:
I shall return to my corner until Mondongo's class is over. Psst Iluvdr if you pay attention you might actually learn something. :bunny:
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I did my best to stay out of this but...
1) How much are apartments in Malecon Center?
2) Following week- I'll buy 2 of them.
3) Anybody know about title insurance? Who do I send my money to?
4) I believe in Ascot advisory--he's the best.
5) $1000 for a sexless escort
6) response to poster as to how to buy cd--I'll send you the name of my lawyer-send your money to him
7) abuses my friend Scott and his sexual preferences.
Wow--let me off this roller coaster! JOHN
This is "getting curiouser and curiouser" Alice in Wonderlandiluvdr said:
1) How much are apartments in Malecon Center?
2) Following week- I'll buy 2 of them.
3) Anybody know about title insurance? Who do I send my money to?
4) I believe in Ascot advisory--he's the best.
5) $1000 for a sexless escort
6) response to poster as to how to buy cd--I'll send you the name of my lawyer-send your money to him
7) abuses my friend Scott and his sexual preferences.
Wow--let me off this roller coaster! JOHN
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I've had it with this thread. Lurch and mondongo can say what they want but the facts still remain that some people actually made a boat load of money from 1/2003 to present. No amount of kicking and screaming will ever change that. The same holds true in the other direction, too. (regardless what I or anyone else says) Some people lost their shirt or didn't make a dime particularly if they followed advice from the 'DR1 self proclaimed experts' from mid 2003 to the present.
All investments in the world carry risk. I personally like very high risk investment (note the indirect admission that BC's CDs are risky) to get a high return (read get paid) or just (the unthinkable) lose it all. Some may not like risk or not have the stomach for it and that is fine but that has to be your choice and your choice alone.
Don't be taken for a fool. Whenever someone argues their viewpoint of a financial related issue so vehemently, it stands to reason that there may be more than meets the eye. An agenda? Ulterior motive? I can't answer that for you. You and only you can!
Finally, if the BC's CDs were so bad from 1/2003 to present. why are commercial banks the biggest consumers of BCs CDs? I think they need the DR1 economic wizards to help them understand how BAD and evil these CDs were/are because Banco Popular sucked'em up like hot cakes!
Here is a quote from the president of Banco Popular Mr. Manuel A. Grull?n as quoted in an article in today's Hoy newspaper
Oh did I mention that Banco Popular netted RD$1,393 millions in 2004. I bet some of that is form those naughty (bad investments) BC's CDs.
Flame twist and spin at will.
Good Luck all.
NotLurking.
All investments in the world carry risk. I personally like very high risk investment (note the indirect admission that BC's CDs are risky) to get a high return (read get paid) or just (the unthinkable) lose it all. Some may not like risk or not have the stomach for it and that is fine but that has to be your choice and your choice alone.
Don't be taken for a fool. Whenever someone argues their viewpoint of a financial related issue so vehemently, it stands to reason that there may be more than meets the eye. An agenda? Ulterior motive? I can't answer that for you. You and only you can!
Finally, if the BC's CDs were so bad from 1/2003 to present. why are commercial banks the biggest consumers of BCs CDs? I think they need the DR1 economic wizards to help them understand how BAD and evil these CDs were/are because Banco Popular sucked'em up like hot cakes!
Here is a quote from the president of Banco Popular Mr. Manuel A. Grull?n as quoted in an article in today's Hoy newspaper
Oh did I mention that Banco Popular netted RD$1,393 millions in 2004. I bet some of that is form those naughty (bad investments) BC's CDs.
Flame twist and spin at will.
Good Luck all.
NotLurking.
Jesus man, you picked the only time frame in history that this would be a good investment. If you did in fact make a boatload of moolah, three cheers for you and everyone else that did. If in fact you were in for another year you would be sucking hind tit and be the goat instead of the hero.
I am 100% in Dollars and happy about it even if I am not doing as well as you are today. I will get the last laugh if that is what you want to call your not doing well in the future. That is my bet.
I am 100% in Dollars and happy about it even if I am not doing as well as you are today. I will get the last laugh if that is what you want to call your not doing well in the future. That is my bet.
Hey John, you never know, this guy could be the real dealjohne said:
The Ascot Advisory, 1000 US for a Sexless Escort and the title insurance got me also but I have known well educated people without a clue in this world also.So did he buy the apartments in Malecon Center or did he not Pull the trigger? That is the big question
One thing about the internet is you can say whatever you want to say without the ability to be called on the carpet, you can be the best investor in the world without making a dime, you can be a man, woman or a he/she and no one actually knows
Thank you for pointing out that the figures are official however I'm not disputing whether or not the figures are official. You said:
My original reply pointed out that the figures you post were off by ~3 billion. I did not question the source of the data or its authenticity. I simply meant that they did not reflect reality on the date you posted them. I guess I'm new to this school of finance/economics.
If the debt figures are not officially published is it owed and does it needs to be serviced? Apparently not...by you emphasis on 'official' and 'latest'
Thanks for pointing that paragraph out to me. I wasn't aware of it. I don't have so call 'long term' CDs (1.5 years +). My CDs are short term (Plazo Corto - upto 1 year). I hadn't seen that paragraph before you posted it.
Regards,
NotLurking.
I replied with:mondongo said:
NotLucking said:
My original reply pointed out that the figures you post were off by ~3 billion. I did not question the source of the data or its authenticity. I simply meant that they did not reflect reality on the date you posted them. I guess I'm new to this school of finance/economics.
If the debt figures are not officially published is it owed and does it needs to be serviced? Apparently not...by you emphasis on 'official' and 'latest'
Thanks for pointing that paragraph out to me. I wasn't aware of it. I don't have so call 'long term' CDs (1.5 years +). My CDs are short term (Plazo Corto - upto 1 year). I hadn't seen that paragraph before you posted it.
Regards,
NotLurking.
Escott said:
I did not pick this particular investment I was forced into it (had been in RD$ for a while). It was either hang on and hope and wish for the best or bail and lose a considerable amount. I choose the latter. I was lucky and readily admit to that but I did choose to take the risk and then some.
Agreed! However we have met! ...in the north coast.Escott said:
Regards,
NotLurking.
Or perhaps?????
.....he could be a tout that toots his own tune.
Excuse the poor poetry, I'm young and still learning the ways of the world.
JOHN
Escott said:Hey John, you never know, this guy could be the real deal
One thing about the internet is you can say whatever you want to say without the ability to be called on the carpet, you can be the best investor in the world without making a dime, you can be a man, woman or a he/she and no one actually knows
.....he could be a tout that toots his own tune.
Excuse the poor poetry, I'm young and still learning the ways of the world.
JOHN
Are you Retarded? ??
John man, where do you go twisting my words like that?!
Didn't your mother teach you any manners? Maybe you are related to lurch?
Normally, I would not even bother responding to this non-sense, but I just wanted to point out, that I never suggested any one send any money to my or any other lawyer for that matter. I simply suggested for those that live outside of the DR they could have a lawyer draw the paper work?
They should always send the money directly to the Central Bank.
Abuse your friend Scott?!
WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? Are you retarded are something???
For the rest you?re simply cutting and pasting buddy...
I have a lot more respect for Lurch; at least he comes at me like a man, not like a boy?
If you?re trying to make me look like a phony, or a theft you should look at yourself twice in the mirror.
For those just catching up on this post, BEWARE! there are a lot of player haters out here... And the previous post is a sample of how corrupted some of them could get and to what extend they will go to discredit another members opinions... See how they take a line from a post here and there and make some kind of a deviance sense out of it all!
It makes me sick to my stomach. I enjoy a good debate, but this is pure defamation and the administrators should bare you for life!!!
johne said:
John man, where do you go twisting my words like that?!
Didn't your mother teach you any manners? Maybe you are related to lurch?
Normally, I would not even bother responding to this non-sense, but I just wanted to point out, that I never suggested any one send any money to my or any other lawyer for that matter. I simply suggested for those that live outside of the DR they could have a lawyer draw the paper work?
They should always send the money directly to the Central Bank.
Abuse your friend Scott?!
WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? Are you retarded are something???
For the rest you?re simply cutting and pasting buddy...
I have a lot more respect for Lurch; at least he comes at me like a man, not like a boy?
If you?re trying to make me look like a phony, or a theft you should look at yourself twice in the mirror.
For those just catching up on this post, BEWARE! there are a lot of player haters out here... And the previous post is a sample of how corrupted some of them could get and to what extend they will go to discredit another members opinions... See how they take a line from a post here and there and make some kind of a deviance sense out of it all!
It makes me sick to my stomach. I enjoy a good debate, but this is pure defamation and the administrators should bare you for life!!!