With an EV you know without a shadow of a doubt that if you keep that EV long enough, you will be needing a new battery pack.
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If you keep ANY vehicle long enough, you also will be needing a new car.
Batteries are warrantied to last at least eight years and should last even longer. It’s best to think of them as lifetime components of the vehicle – they should last for as long as the car does.
And if considering a EV in this climate, buy one with liquid cooling of the battery pack.
From 2010 to 2019, lithium-ion battery prices (when looking at the battery pack as a whole) have fallen from $1,100 per kilowatt-hour to $156/kwh—an 87% cut. From 2018 to 2019 alone, that represents a cut of 13%.
Do not predict the future by using past prices.
It is now anticipated that pack-based cell prices will dip below the $100/kwh mark in 2024.
But we will need hundreds of thousands to millions of electric cars over their full lives to have enough data to make definitive statements about battery life. Remember that manufacturers only design cars for lives of 10 to 12 years and 100,000 to 150,000 miles to start with, though Toyotas and a few other brands often last far longer.
Thus far, data shows Tesla batteries have only lost about 10 percent of their energy capacity after 100,000 miles.