Feeding this into AI betting odds calculator [please note I am not advocating 100% reliability, this is a betting odds calculator, using only mathematical probability]. Just for casual spitballing:
Probability Analysis
When a person drowns close to the shoreline of a beach, the fate of their body, whether it washes up on shore or is completely swallowed up by the ocean never to be found, depends on factors like ocean currents, wave action, and water depth. Below are three scenarios with their corresponding odds of each outcome.
Scenario 1: Typical Beach Conditions
- Description: A beach with moderate waves and gentle currents, where wave action pushes objects toward the shore.
- Odds:
- Washing up on shore: 90%
- Being lost at sea: 10%
- Explanation: In typical conditions, the body is likely to be carried back to shore by waves, especially once it floats due to decomposition.
Scenario 2: Beach with Moderate Offshore Transport
- Description: A beach with occasional rip currents or mild offshore winds that can pull the body away temporarily.
- Odds:
- Washing up on shore: 70%
- Being lost at sea: 30%
- Explanation: Moderate offshore forces increase the chance of the body being carried out, but it’s still likely to return to shore over time.
Scenario 3: Beach with Strong Offshore Transport or Unique Topography
- Description: A beach with strong rip currents, offshore winds, or a steep drop-off near the shore, capable of carrying the body farther out.
- Odds:
- Washing up on shore: 50%
- Being lost at sea: 50%
- Explanation: Strong offshore transport or challenging topography makes it equally likely for the body to be lost at sea or wash up somewhere along the coast.
Summary
In most cases near a shoreline, the body is more likely to wash up on shore due to wave and current patterns. However, as offshore forces strengthen, the odds of it being lost at sea increase significantly.
