How will the coming financial depression affect expats in DR?

businessdr

Member
Oct 8, 2011
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There is a financial storm on the horizon that rivals the 1929 Great Depression.

Are people concerned about staying in this country in the case that credit card

systems are shut down, or worse, if the USD is not accepted?
 

DRob

Gold
Aug 15, 2007
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In his head (see generally "Chicken Little" economics).
 
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harry myrtle beach

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Sep 16, 2015
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If and when the USD is not accepted,you better stock up on beans,rice, and alcohol. Those will be the only commodities that have any value.
 

PanfilodeVaca

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Jan 12, 2014
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There is a financial storm on the horizon that rivals the 1929 Great Depression.

Are people concerned about staying in this country in the case that credit card

systems are shut down, or worse, if the USD is not accepted?
Does this mean you're giving up your gym membership?
 

Derfish

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Jan 7, 2016
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This has been gonna happen since about 1970, I wouldn't worry since I am almost 70 I do not expect it to happen ebfore I have gone to my reward! Ashhard as GW Bush tried he could not do it. Remember the 'W will weaken the federal govt so bad we can drown it in the bath tub?"
 

DRob

Gold
Aug 15, 2007
8,187
506
113
George Soros the far left billionaire has made such a call.

He is the same guy that brought the British Pound to its knees years ago.

He makes big bets and tries to move the market his way.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-the-beginning-of-a-crisis-george-soros-says


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
Well, 2008 wasn't 1929.

Much of what caused 2008 (endlessly repackaged CDOs and excessive financial insurance claims) has been eliminated from most larger banks' financials. While AIG remains too big to fail, which is worrisome, the macro-issues now are largely external (engineered collapse of oil, conversion of Chinese economy to consumer-based, more turmoil than usual in the Middle East, etc.)

That said, my biz interests focus more on real estate, so I'll leave it to you and Gorgon to tell me when the world is coming to an end, lol.
 
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the gorgon

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Sep 16, 2010
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Well, 2008 wasn't 1929.

Much of what caused 2008 (endlessly repackaged CDOs and excessive financial insurance claims) has been eliminated from most larger banks' financials. While AIG remains too big to fail, which is worrisome, the macro-issues now are largely external (engineered collapse of oil, conversion of Chinese economy to consumer-based, etc.)

That said, my biz interests focus more on real estate, so I'll leave it to you and Gorgon to tell me when the world is coming to an end, lol.
if you will have noticed, i am the guy who has been upbeat about the economy of late. it is playacaribe who told us in his last observations that a debt to GDP ratio of over 100% is going to sink the US economy. he just never explained why.
 
Jan 9, 2004
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375
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if you will have noticed, i am the guy who has been upbeat about the economy of late. it is playacaribe who told us in his last observations that a debt to GDP ratio of over 100% is going to sink the US economy. he just never explained why.
Just to clarify....no where did I say that the current over 100% debt to GDP would sink the economy. What I said was the current debt to GDP would unduly burden future generations with debt...unless we get resulting growth to overtake the rate of debt being added.

But if this unchecked spending continues without growth...it will surely sink this economy and others around it. You cannot borrow and spend into oblivion...without the growth necessary to reduce debt to GDP......and we are not yet reducing debt.

What I also said was, debt is not bad......it is the inability to pay it back that creates the problem.

If Soros is correct, it won't matter much what country you are in. The effects will be felt everywhere in all but subsistence economies.

And Soros is wrong.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 
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Mauricio

Gold
Nov 18, 2002
5,607
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Well, 2008 wasn't 1929.

Much of what caused 2008 (endlessly repackaged CDOs and excessive financial insurance claims) has been eliminated from most larger banks' financials. While AIG remains too big to fail, which is worrisome, the macro-issues now are largely external (engineered collapse of oil, conversion of Chinese economy to consumer-based, more turmoil than usual in the Middle East, etc.)

That said, my biz interests focus more on real estate, so I'll leave it to you and Gorgon to tell me when the world is coming to an end, lol.
Apparently the financial system is hardly at less risk than in 2008.
 

the gorgon

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Sep 16, 2010
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Just to clarify....no where did I say that the current over 100% debt to GDP would sink the economy. What I said was the current debt to GDP would unduly burden future generations with debt...unless we get resulting growth to overtake the rate of debt being added.

But if this unchecked spending continues without growth...it will surely sink this economy and others around it. You cannot borrow and spend into oblivion...without the growth necessary to reduce debt to GDP......and we are not yet reducing debt.

What I also said was, debt is not bad......it is the inability to pay it back that creates the problem.

If Soros is correct, it won't matter much what country you are in. The effects will be felt everywhere in all but subsistence economies.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
debt to GDP is, of itself, meaningless as a metric, and you know it.

there are three basic components to debt. the first is how much you owe. the second is what is the rate of payment, in terms of interest. the third is the due date to retire the loan. add another important component...to whom you owe the money.

if i borrow 1000 dollars, and i pay 2% interest, and have 30 years to pay it off, that is a far different case than if i am paying back at 10% interest and i have to pay it off by the year?s end. debt repayment is not static analysis. if the payment rate is 2%, and my salary increases at 3%, that is far different than if i lose my job, and have top repay from savings. also, you have not told us how much is government debt and how much is sovereign debt. borrowing from a loanshark and borrowing from your family has different undertones.. much of the US debt is owned by entities like Social Security. if the debt becomes unmanageable, the government can raise the eligibility by 2 years and shave a few trillion off the debt. this is not like Greece borrowin from Germany, in which the currency and interest rates are fixed. the US has a number of monetary options to deal with debt. besides, a country like Japan has been running numbers like 180 to 200 for nearly a decade, and is still borrowing the cheapest money. the economy is not in the tank for it.

it means something to small developing countries, whch have minor economies, and who borrow in foreign currency. when your currency is the world reserve currency, and your treasury bills are the most reliable on earth, your debt has very little to do with the economic performance. just look at the response to the downgrade of the US credit rating a few years back. it never did a thing to the US ability to borrow.
 

jimmythegreek

Bronze
Dec 4, 2008
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There is a financial storm on the horizon that rivals the 1929 Great Depression.

Are people concerned about staying in this country in the case that credit card

systems are shut down, or worse, if the USD is not accepted?
The only thing that surprises me about this thread is how many posters do not see this as a given.

The situation is far worse than 1929 or 2008-The levels of debt today-both public and private-far surpass anything that has ever been witnessed in history.

The DR economy is running on credit no different than all the other countries in the world.

When the credit cards get cut off as banks fail-there will only be cash or what one can barter for goods and services.

From the individual to the government, everyone is leveraging with debt creating an enormous credit bubble and fantasy economy.
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,074
375
83
debt to GDP is, of itself, meaningless as a metric, and you know it.

there are three basic components to debt. the first is how much you owe. the second is what is the rate of payment, in terms of interest. the third is the due date to retire the loan. add another important component...to whom you owe the money.

if i borrow 1000 dollars, and i pay 2% interest, and have 30 years to pay it off, that is a far different case than if i am paying back at 10% interest and i have to pay it off by the year?s end. debt repayment is not static analysis. if the payment rate is 2%, and my salary increases at 3%, that is far different than if i lose my job, and have top repay from savings. also, you have not told us how much is government debt and how much is sovereign debt. borrowing from a loanshark and borrowing from your family has different undertones.. much of the US debt is owned by entities like Social Security. if the debt becomes unmanageable, the government can raise the eligibility by 2 years and shave a few trillion off the debt. this is not like Greece borrowin from Germany, in which the currency and interest rates are fixed. the US has a number of monetary options to deal with debt. besides, a country like Japan has been running numbers like 180 to 200 for nearly a decade, and is still borrowing the cheapest money. the economy is not in the tank for it.

it means something to small developing countries, whch have minor economies, and who borrow in foreign currency. when your currency is the world reserve currency, and your treasury bills are the most reliable on earth, your debt has very little to do with the economic performance. just look at the response to the downgrade of the US credit rating a few years back. it never did a thing to the US ability to borrow.
I stand by my actual comments in the other thread....not the ones you claim I made above.

This thread is about an alleged/potential financial depression predicted by George Soros....and its possible effects on expats in the DR.

We are not in Off Topic any longer.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 

the gorgon

Platinum
Sep 16, 2010
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I stand by my actual comments in the other thread....not the ones you claim I made above.

This thread is about an alleged/potential financial depression predicted by George Soros....and its possible effects on expats in the DR.

We are not in Off Topic any longer.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
i cannot remember the topic of the thread, but your statement was that Supply and Demand work, and not Debt to GDP ratios over 100%.

you are free to stick by your statement. loyalty does not make you right.
 

Kipling333

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Jan 12, 2010
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I cannot believe the original posting. All that has happened is that China devalued its currency , called a trading halt two times to trading on thir stocj exchange and now has revoked that mechanism ...and then all the sheep get scared . We are still going to have growth this year in the world according to the experts and the DR most certainly will have a growing economy . During the last recession /depression, the DR hardly felt a thing because we , thanks to the Director of the Central Bank started on a programme of capital expenditure financed by very cheap money we gained as a result of the G20 London meeting. Who cares if future generations have to foot part of the bill.. that is what hapens in emerging economies that wish to grow relatively quickly .. Stay calm and positive..and of course the USA dollar will remain the world currency .. Just pray to God that Trump will go away soon ..for the sake of the world and the USA ..
 

jimmythegreek

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Dec 4, 2008
1,066
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I cannot believe the original posting. All that has happened is that China devalued its currency , called a trading halt two times to trading on thir stocj exchange and now has revoked that mechanism ...and then all the sheep get scared . We are still going to have growth this year in the world according to the experts and the DR most certainly will have a growing economy . During the last recession /depression, the DR hardly felt a thing because we , thanks to the Director of the Central Bank started on a programme of capital expenditure financed by very cheap money we gained as a result of the G20 London meeting. Who cares if future generations have to foot part of the bill.. that is what hapens in emerging economies that wish to grow relatively quickly .. Stay calm and positive..and of course the USA dollar will remain the world currency .. Just pray to God that Trump will go away soon ..for the sake of the world and the USA ..
Yeah cheap money is the solution to everything. Cheap money-which is just really cheap debt financing is the single reason why everything is collapsing right now.