Hurricane Emily (was .. Tropical Storm Emily)

[Chris]

5am Advisories

Tropical Depression 5 has turned into Tropical Storm Emily still in the tropical Atlantic and making her way Westward towards the Lesser Antilles. This is the fifth named storm of the season and sets a record as the earliest date in the season for five named storms.

Forecast Track - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/083256.shtml?3day
Strike Possibilities - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/083256.shtml?prob
Satellite - http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

At 5 AM, the center was located near Latitude 11.4 North and Longitude 48.6 West or about 845 miles / 1360 KM east of the Windward Islands. Movement is at 15 MPH...24 KM/HR and a Westward-Northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 MPH...75 KM/HR with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 KM from the center.

Currently Emily's track puts her close to Hispaniola late Thursday...early Friday. The official forecast track is a little south of of the forecast models consensus track. Historically these storms inch a little Northwards and miss us completely. It is early days and lets watch for the next few days. Since I've been watching this system, there has been Northwards movement in the forecasted track.

 

[Hillbilly]

The five day forecast

From CNN put Emily crossing the DR on Saturday.

People would be advised to be wise and lay in a small store of canned goods and water, batteries and battery powered radio, JIC.

Normally, historically, these storms will head nore to the northwest and skirt the eastern part of the island. However, Emily is quite far to the south and these are the ones that dump a whole lot of water on us. Being so far south, she can also come right at us, so please be careful those of you on the south and eat coastlines.

For those of you in the North Coast? Do not be Alfred E Newmanish!! "What? Me worry?" Pick up a couple extra gallons of water and do the normal precautions. If she does decide to cross the island you will lose your electricity and water. And< I can sadly say, I have seen it happen....

HB

 

[Mirador]

Pick up a couple extra gallons of water and...

per person

 

[Mirador]

According to the latests predictions, a Cat 3 Emily will pass south of Santo Domingo on Friday.

Emily

 

[Chris]

11 am advisories

Emily is strengthening

Hurricane watches have been issued for Barbados, Grenada, The Grenadines, St Vincent and St Lucia. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 24 hours.

The center of tropical storm Emily is now located near 11.0 North and 51.3 West, or about 575 miles...925 KM East-SouthEast of Barbados.

Emily is moving toward the West near 20 MPH...32 KM/HR.

Here is the most important piece of information for us...

A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

This is the turn that we need to watch. Remember, it is early days for us. Errors for track have averaged near 280 Miles on day 4 and 370 Miles on day 5 - and for intensity, near 23 MPH each day...

Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 MPH...85 KM/HR with higher gusts. Additional strenghtening is expected.. and Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85KM from the center.

Updated Advisories on this system will be available here at 2.30 and 5.30 today.

 

[PJT]

Track projection

The NHC chart of this Tues 11 am track projection has the center of Emily as of 8 am this Friday at approx. 16 N latitude 70 W longitude, about 200 miles from Punta Cana. This means the storm center track line has distanced itself south from its previous projection of Tues 5 am, and from Hispaniola. Note: Punta Cana still remains within the envelope of the potential 1 - 3 day track area.

Remain vigilant, take proper precautions, and keep yourself posted.
Regards,
PJT

 

[Chris]

At this stage and after the 2pm advisories, I would fully agree with PJT. It is however too close for comfort and I would also urge all to remain vigilant.

This is what the picture looks like now, but the next two days will paint a more complete picture. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144629.shtml?5day?largeand

We still have the projected turn to the WestNorthWest to take into consideration...

As you can see from the chart, at 8am Friday, this track has Emily around 120 miles South of Santo Domingo and moving WestNorthWest.... However, even if the storm strengthens, the South Coast would only be in for heavy winds. It is early days however.

Let's look again at 5pm and please remain vigilant. It is going to be a nailbiting few days for us.

 

[Chris]

5 pm advisories

Although the convective cloud tops have warmed this afternoon, Emily is maintaining decent banding and good symmetric outflow. Tomorrow morning an air force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will inspect this system to refine the predictions.

Once again all the models have moved the track a little southward. All global models are in good agreement that mid-level high pressure will be maintained North of the system, keeping it on a West-Northwestward heading throughout the forecast period. The track models remain tightly clustered.

The outflow pattern is strong, the shear is low and the water is warm. The official forecast still has this system strengthening further.

An interesting fact is that it appears that Hurricane Dennis actually left portions of the Caribbean sea a little warmer and hence the potential of further development for Emily. The University of Miami indicate that westerly winds on the South Side of Dennis, have spread warm waters from the NorthWestern Caribbean eastward to the South and SouthEast of Jamaica...an area where Emily is forecasted to travel. We all know that warm water is not good for hurricanes

In 72 hours or three days, or Friday morning, the current track forecast puts Emily at the closest pass to Hispaniola 200 miles away from Santo Domingo.

I repeat, remain vigilant.... Keep yourself informed.... This is early days for us and the picture may still change.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/203255.shtml?5day?large

 

[Chris]

Model Guidance

Just before I take the evening off (to rest up for the next three days) here is a map that illustrates how closely the predictive models are in agreement on Emily. This seldom happens.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

Next reports at around 6am tomorrow morning. Good night.

 

[Chris]

Keeping us on our Toes..

It seems from the discussion and forecasts this morning, that Emily is still in the organizing stage. The forecasters acknowledge that there is limited skill in predicting tropical cyclone intensity changes in 3 to 5 days. The SHIPS and GFDL models still predict significant strengthening of Emily as she moves over the increasingly warm Caribbean Waters. In terms of the current track, it is placed a little further South than yesterday - around 275 miles from Santo Domingo in around 60 hours..

Emily has been moving mostly Westward ... around 270/17. Dynamical track prediction models are in good agreement on a generally West-NorthWestward motion during the forecast period.

So, we still watch and wait. Keep in mind that Emily is still a tropical storm. She has not reached hurricane strength. Also keep in mind that the track predictions has put her further and further south from our South Coast. No, it is not time to become complacent, but we can all take a little break today, while Emily decides what she wants to do.

We will keep watching - next report around 2.30 today.

 

[Hillbilly]

Again, CNN is saying that it is almost hurricane

strength. It will be good is we just get some rain and a little breeze...

HB

 

[carina]

strength. It will be good is we just get some rain and a little breeze...

HB

Realistic and positive, as always HB! I like that.
This morning, in Puerto Plata, I actually saw some of the locally owned shops on Beller, and especially those in corners to some streets going down on to Malecon, have actually already crossed their windows with tape.
People are aware, and that is a good thing.

 

[Chris]

Folks, we are in one of the most active hurricane seasons of all times (at least in my memory...). It is perfect to be aware at this stage. Our policy here is to keep people calm, aware and prepared.

Yes, I will agree with CNN - she is almost a hurricane - but she is not a hurricane as yet, and the forecasted track puts her well south of us. At this stage, it looks as if Jamaica and the Florida Coast Line is in for it again. BUT IT MAY CHANGE - THESE SYSTEMS ARE UNPREDICTABLE....

I say it again... there are very few predictive tools that are accurate for anything more than two days in terms of hurricanes. So let's not jump the gun... This morning was quite amazing... I did not read PJT's Punta Cana weather, before we did the analysis of where Emily is this morning. And after I posted, I saw PJT and I were just about on one mark with estimated distance from our shores - and I calculated in my head, so I can be 20 miles or so off....

This is a crazy hurricane season... never before seen anything like it in my life. I felt guilty for taking an evening off last night. When a hurricane approaches, SaltyDawg, Ken and I spend just about our whole day and a great part of the night looking at and analyzing raw data. We have good connections at Noaa and with the fellows down south of here, at caribwx.com. When Emily formed deep in the Atlantic, we knew about this system long before any official reports came out. In fact, we knew about it when the ships in the area were asked to start reporting on the disturbance. PJT gave me a heads-up and I gave all out weather reporters a heads up long before this storm was in the public eye. I wrote to Dunhill and his cryptic note back to me was,,, yeah, been watching for two days already.

We have talented, knowledgable and dedicated weather folks right here amongst us - and the good news is, that all of us have real hands-on experience (Also, we report in our pajamas - we do not need stage makeup like the CNN folks need before we do our jobs - we do not need to 'make news' to keep our readership...)

As unpredictable as storms and the weather is, I assure you that you are in excellent hands, right here on the DR1.

 

[Mirador]

Wow! Emily seems to be doing a limbo dance by the Lesser Antilles (How low can you go!), she's at the level of Tobago.

 

[Ken]

Realistic and positive, as always HB! I like that.
This morning, in Puerto Plata, I actually saw some of the locally owned shops on Beller, and especially those in corners to some streets going down on to Malecon, have actually already crossed their windows with tape.
People are aware, and that is a good thing.

carina, I don't agree it is a good thing that people in POP are taking precautions at this time for Emily. This is not yet and likely never be a storm they must take precautions for.

The more times that people take precautions for storms that never materialize the more likely it is they will ignore future warnings of storms that they really should prepare for.

The DR needs a better system for notifying the people about storms so that they prepare for those they should and ignore those that pose no danger to them. It does not have such a system now. I have seen numerous times when it got people excited about a storm that was never going to bother them, and times when it sent out warnings after the storm had passed by.

 

[Mirador]

How about using a color code system like the one established by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security for the threat level from terrorism, but using different colors instead (to avoid patent infringement and other issues ;-).

carina, I don't agree it is a good thing that people in POP are taking precautions at this time for Emily. This is not yet and likely never be a storm they must take precautions for.

The more times that people take precautions for storms that never materialize the more likely it is they will ignore future warnings of storms that they really should prepare for.

The DR needs a better system for notifying the people about storms so that they prepare for those they should and ignore those that pose no danger to them. It does not have such a system now. I have seen numerous times when it got people excited about a storm that was never going to bother them, and times when it sent out warnings after the storm had passed by.

 

[carina]

I agree with you in general, that would be the ideal system. But we are not there yet, and window glass is expensive. That is why they do it.

 

[Chris]

RollerCoaster Ride..

Looks like by tomorrow morning, we're all be on the rollercoaster ride.

At 11 AM the center of tropical storm Emily was located near 11.2 North and 58.1 West, or about 165 Miles...270 KM SouthEast of Barbados and about 225 miles...360 km East-NorthEast of Trinidad.

So, Emily is now much closer to the warmer Caribbean waters.

She is moving toward the west near 20 MPH...32 KM/HR and a West to West-Northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this forecast track the center of Emily will be passing through the Southern Windward Islands this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 MPH...95 KM/HR with higher gusts. Emily still has the potential to reach hurricane strength before she clears the windwards islands.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 KM, mainly to the NorthEast and SouthEast of the center.

I repeat here a portion of Forecaster Franklin's discussion after the visit to Emily by a hurricane hunter this morning - Emily continues on a stubborn Westward track 270/17.

THE FOLLOWING IS THE MOVEMENT THAT WE NEED TO WATCH...

The West-NorthWestward motion forecast almost unamimously by the track models, has not developed yet.

Here is the interesting thing... The official forecast is NOW adjusted a little to the left of the previous advisory because the models so consistently forecast this movement.

The Northern semicircle of Emily is relatively cloud free near the core and the forecaster suggests that the dry stable environment is hindering development at this time. However, upper winds are still favorable for strengthening.

For the first time, the forecasters broach the thought that Emily may end up weaker than forecast.

 

[Chris]

It's going to be a photo finish..

It looks like the shift to the WestNorthWest is beginning to happen. The initial motion is now 275/16, not quite West-NorthWest, but it looks like a start. However, overall Emily is a weaker storm than anticipated and is expected to pass through the windward islands as a tropical storm. The current track has shifted to well south of us.

We'll pick it up tomorrow morning again.

 

[sweetdbt]

Muchas gracias

Chis and others for these reports. I am scheduled to fly into POP on Saturday, so needless to say the direction Emily takes could have a significant impact on my vacation plans. Keeping my fingers crossed, but so far it looks promising.