Hurricane Isabel

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Dolores1

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May 3, 2000
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Tropical Storm Isabel

For those who follow the storms that develop in the Atlantic Basin and can threaten the Caribbean, this is another one. We are right now in the peak season of hurricanes for this area. Keep in mind that, for instance, Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic was last hit by a hurricane in September 1998, and before that in August 1979. Those not familiar with hurricanes in the DR can read http://dr1.com/travel/expect/hurricanes.shtml

Regardless, here is the recent Accuweather update on Tropical Storm Isabel:
"The other feature in the Atlantic Basin today is a strong tropical wave located west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave was centered along 33 west and south of 20 north with a 1,008 millibar low along the axis near 14 north. The system could become the next tropical system by the end of the weekend."

For map, see http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=Isabel
 

XanaduRanch

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Sep 15, 2002
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Regardless, here is the recent Accuweather update on Tropical Storm Isabel:
"The other feature in the Atlantic Basin today is a strong tropical wave located west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave was centered along 33 west and south of 20 north with a 1,008 millibar low along the axis near 14 north. The system could become the next tropical system by the end of the weekend."
Everybody catch that? They's talking about a tropical wave becoming a tropical depression when it's already been a named tropical storm for 1/2 day and anyone looking at the satellite photos could have told you that last night.

Last night's AckyWeather update referred to Hurricane Fabian by the name of Henri, and then proceeded to mix up Henri's status. They've been interchanging the two up for the last several days. Oh yeah, they also forecast TD9 to be a major hurricane and pass close by or over the North Coast of the DR while headed for East Florida. Firend of mine got an ad faxed to his company by them for 'accurate weather reporting' with Mississippi labeled as Lousiana. What a joke.

I would suggest another source unless you really want to be confused. Among others you can get the info direct from the NWS' reports at http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html
 
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XanaduRanch

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Just looked at some of the initial data.

Isabel is going to have a harder time making the curve northwestward as Fabian did. Right now extrapolation would put it around 21 north by the time it gets to my longitude here at 69.5 west. That's not very far off shore. Speed will determine. If it slows down, better chance of getting caught in a weakness in the ridge to the north and turning. Faster, and no time so more westward. Should be a hurricane in about 48 hours.

HB, come on up, maybe the surf will be up here along the north coast and we'll gets some good pics off the Xanadu pool deck this year after all.
 

XanaduRanch

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Watch Out for Isabel

Bad news as of this morning. All models indicate a strengthening rather than weakening of the high pressure area north of Isabel. This has in fact already begun. It is even expected to build westward over time forcing Isabel onto a direct westward track in a couple of days. This is at the same time it's roughly at the same latitude as the north coast of the Dominican Republic with wind speeds of around 120mph.

In fact the track extrapolations, which have been so far excellent this year would place it on a beeline for Xanadu. The good news is that this is still about six to seven days away.

Guess you have to worry sometimes about getting what you wish for!

Tom (aka XR)
 

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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Yes, even though it is still 2000 miles from Samana, I'm a little concerned about Isabel, too. More so than would have been the case in previous years because this year the National Hurricane Center seems to have been quite accurate in its extended forecasts.

My expectation based on past history is that Isabel will head northwest about the time it gets to Puerto Rico. But that jiggle that NHC put in the track today was not in the desired direction.

Here is the 5 day projection as of 11am today http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/071453W5.gif
 

XanaduRanch

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I hope so Ken, I've got a wood roof, and no hurricane clips were used (there's a surprise, huh?) But this time it's not a jiggle. The storms turn when they find a weakness in the ridge to the north. There isn't one this time.

The NHC has new computers, and new mathematical models this year. They have not been as good in areas where steering winds are more chaotic, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Southwest Caribbean, in my opinion. But across the rest of the Atlantic they have been pretty much dead-on.

There's a lot of time to refine the track, but this concerns me a bit because it's about following the only track that can really cause problems for the North Coast. That's a very hard thing to do because of the geography of the coastline, but there it is. So we'll watch and wait!
 

Ken

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Chris said:
What we need, is for this storm to behave just like a women and change her mind! and find some other direction.

Good point, Chris. I feel better knowing this storm is Isabel rather than one of the macho males.;)
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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women and men storms..

Ken, something about this Isabel makes me think that we should not be complacent for the next few days. This is not Mars and Venus stuff methinks. Have you checked the 5pm update? She has increased her speed, and her windspeeds and her wind force. And there are no other weather systems to make her change her mind.

Richard is in the Turks and Caicos at the moment and I've asked him nicely that if the track does not change between today and Wednesday, to please come home... on Wednesday!. I would hate for Isabel (or any other women for that matter) to catch him between here and there. ;)

Is your boat anchored with heavy weight anchors? What I mean by achors is possibly old truck engines? or something similar in weight?
 

Ken

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Yes, it is a bitch when you have a boat in what may be the path of a hurricane. You can be sure I am tracking this closely.

I'm on a mooring--deeply buried engine, but I'll be in Samana on Wednesday and Thursday to do what I can to secure the boat.

I am taking this one very seriously. Just hope it stays in the ocean should it pass Samana since the mountain range between Samana and Las Terrenas helps to calm things down a bit.

This sucker has to turn north, but I'm not as confident as I have been in the past that it will do so when it gets to Puerto Rico.
 

bdaric

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Aug 28, 2003
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Storms

Hi from Bermuda folks,

we are still here!
Where I stay we are fortunate as finally, the local (only)power utility
has buried all the cables underground so we didn't lose power during the latest storm.
They haven't done the whole island yet so many are not so fortunate.

Rarely and sadly, we lost 4 people attempting to cross a low bridge when a wave apparently washed the low wall and their car away.

As usual the sand dunes are washed away as are any beach style bars.

This storm was particularly bad as it pounded some roads to pieces.
Tore off the tarmac and ripped up the rocks underneath.

Close by I saw a TV mast snapped off and after dangling for 5-10 mins finally
snapped completely off.

The usual devastation of trees happened again , but not so bad as Emily 16 years ago.

Hope you all in DR don't get hammered during this season.

Rich...........
 
Apr 26, 2002
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Bdaric,

Glad the island made it through. I hope the "Shame of Front Street" survived. I had to spend two weeks on your island, and got to know that place too well.
 

XanaduRanch

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Sep 15, 2002
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I dunno Ken. I don't really see any changes here. Certainly the high is strengthening just as expected and there are no weaknesses in the ridge to the North at this time or forecast.

The storm is now CAT3 at 115mph, and expected to be CAT4 by sometime late tomorrow. The projections still show it at 20 North by the time it's at 62.5 West on Saturday morning. Note that this would represent a northward movement of just one-half of one degree over the previous thirty-six hours of movement. Extrapolating that puts it optomistically somewhere around 20.25/20.5 North by the time it reaches 70 West. We'd better hope that it weakens a little as expected long term at that point or the surf will really be up in Cabarete early next Monday morning.
 

Ken

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I agree it isn't much if you have a home on the north shore. But if you have a sailboat in Samana harbor, 20.50 is a lot better than 19.2 because of the land mass/mountain range between the two. (I'm hoping it weakens or goes north before 69.2. That is the coordinate I am using for Samana.)

Hopefully there will be only good surprises in the days ahead. Between 5pm yesterday and 5am this morning there was a lot more northerly movement than westerly.

Hurricanes have their own individual agenda, but almost always make a turn to the north. I'm still hoping that will happen before it gets to the DR.

But my optimism did suffer a setback when I watched CNN weather about 8am this morning. With his chalk, Chad Meyers showed the storm turning south around the north east corner of Puerto Rico, then wiping out the north shores of Puerto Rico and the DR as it proceded west.

BTW, it wasn't me, XR, that expressed disappointment that Fabian didn't come closer to the DR.;)
 
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