Hurricane Isabel

[andy a]

Xanadu

No need for tornadoes to attract them.

It seems that whenever there's talk about power outages, contaminated water, thievery, corruption, crazy driving, etc. - there's a rush of new posters on the board anxious to give up their nice middle class lives and move their entire families to the DR.

 

[XanaduRanch]

Yes, well, His Majesty HM has to recruit his new party hacks from somewhere! LOL.

As I look at the sat photos at 1:30AM looks like we're back to mostly straight west for the last hour or two. Probably what we're watching are just wobbles caused by inner eywall dynamics. At least the eye is a little farther north. The rain bands don't seem to be.

Chris, great moon. Not a circular halo like we've seen often enough. It was/is a filled in halo about maybe one moon diamter all around the moon itself. I tried to take some pics, but the digital camera didn't show it well at all. Moon's too bright, halo's too dim. Looked like Haloween here, too, with dark thunderheads passing in front of the moon and halo all the while.

Very cool.

 

[Escott]

Is this going to be the 50 year storm with great surfing ?

 

[Andy B]

Andy A,
Please point out where I said that all the discussion had "raised tension". I believe you have me confused with someone else. Yes I said I've hoped it's raised hurricane "awareness", but then that's a good thing.

Ever heard the phrase "been there, done that?" I've been through a more than a few hurricanes and get kind of nervous when one starts poking around my neighborhood. I've have lived in or near the tropics all my life, have over 7,000 days (and nights) logged offshore (4,500 as a licensed Ocean Master) and hurricanes are something I don't take likely.

And you and I definately don't agree about a lot of things. If you lived here and truly experienced the DR you might see things a little differently including how this hurricane affects daily life here, even when it's still days away.

 

[Ken]

As of 5 am, Isabel continues to increase the distance from the DR. As Tom indicated in the post above, it wobbled between west and west northwest during the night, but the overall motion was west northwest. The NHC forecasters expect that will continue. Wind speed still 160 mph.

 

[XanaduRanch]

Christmas Eve

Things seemed so quiet last night, both in here and out there in the real world it felt like Christmas Eve. You know? Everyone had talked about everything that could be talked, done whatever they were going to do or not do, and it was time to just sit back and watch.

Here at Xanadu the ocean has been very loud since last night. We're about 3 miles away, but there is a great roar of waves breaking on the beach. How's surf? I plan to go out and look later today but haven't made it any further than poolside so far!

One other good thing, the storm as it restrengthened also contracted a bit. The eye really isn't any further away, it'll be paralleling the coast mainly if the current motion continues to the WNW, but the south and southwest edge of those rain bands really jumped back north and closer to the storm center. We could sure use the rain and I still hope we get a little though because the strength of Isabel has kept just about anything else away from the north coast since it's been in the neighborhood and we're pretty dry.

Looks like we got an early present from this one. Merry Christmas!

Tom (aka XR)

 

[Hillbilly]

Great show over on nhc.noaa

Go to the Satellite Imagery and look at the loop of the IR. It is a SHOW!

Or click here:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

It takes a while to load but it is a show.

Maybe Andy B can tell us what it is like in Las Galeras.

HB

 

[socuban]

where is it heading?

Isabel that is. The weather sites show her moving away from DR. Is she a non-event for the DR at this point?

 

[XanaduRanch]

Be Afraid!

Groucho Marx once was asked why Harpo never spoke in their act or movies. He replied with the story of a night when Harpo once got angry at a theater owner who renegged on paying for a performance. Hoofing it out of town Grouch recalled Harpo said "I hope his theater burns down!" Several days later, they learned that it had. Groucho said that "After that ... we never let him say another word."

I want to say I wish we'd at least get a few of the storm bands here so we could get some rain. But the last time I said it'd be nice to see such a thing, Isabel popped up, played like she was headed straight for us for 9 days, and just for fun went to CAT5 to keep us guessing.

I think I'll take a lesson from Harpo and just shut-up.

Tom (aka XR)

 

[andy a]

With the current projected course, it might be interesting to reflect upon the possible consequences farther north.

I saw a documentary once about how bad the situation might be in Nueba Yor if a very strong hurricane hit.

It might happen with a script like Isabel is following - turn the corner northward with humongous winds - pick up the warm Gulf Stream as it nears the eastern coast, and maintain a lot of that strength as the increased rotational effect (coriolis force) helps to offset the cooler northern waters.

I don't think this is the year for the BIG one, though. Reason - it seems to me that the summer over the eastern US was the coolest in a long time, so the western Atlantic must be too. Also, it's already too late in the year for max ocean temperature. Camille, with its record winds, happened in late August. The Florida keys hurricane of 1935 was at Labor Day.

It may hit the southern US with record or near record winds (for that local area, but much less than absolute records) since it is not so far away and Isabel is so strong now. I don't think though that it can maintain its exceptional strength all the way to NY or New England (even with the rotational boost).

Also, not mentioned in the documentary is the geograhical protection that NYC has, although eastern Long Island could be more vulnerable.

New Yorkers should always be prepared, of course - for hurricanes, power outages, whatever - and the hurricane could still be strong (IF it hits).

 

[XanaduRanch]

Nueba Yor

As I've mentioned before Andy, SST's are only a small part of what a hurricane needs to become quite strong, as Isabel has demonstrated to us very personally this year. Plus, it's only about this time of year SST's plateau and start going down. Not earlier. Having said all that Isabel is expected to be in a much less favorable winds shear environment beginning in about 36 hours. It may very well be just a little more than a minimal hurricane at landfall if it has to travel very far north to hit the Dominicans in New York, that it missed here in the Caribbean.

HB, nice photo. I do notice dark clouds on the eastern and northern ocean horizon from here now. And that loops shows Isabel regularly throwing off a few bands of thunderstorms southward. So, maybe we'll get a spot of rain yet.

Tom (aka XR)

 

[andy a]

Xanadu,

Of course there are many factors, but the "best" chance for a powerful hurricane should be when those factors converge.

For example, Camille was in the warm waters of the gulf and as far north as possible (for max rotational effect). Even its small physical size may have "helped" by preventing its forward fringes from being subjected to "weakening" over land as it approached (before the strong inner winds arrived).

Fascinating subject.

 

[Ken]

With a hurricane there is never a guarantee that it won't come back and bite you, but I'm starting to feel that Isabel has its eye elsewhere. Still not to the longitude of Samana, but already at latitude 24.1. Buen viaje, Isabel.

 

[XanaduRanch]

I agree Ken. Thank goodness. Even at that this is a very near miss and I think the awareness that it was out there was more than justified.

Sitting out on the deck looking out at the ocean a few minutes ago was a bit strange here. You're in Sosua, Ken, aren't you? Did you notice the winds? Not strong just 10-20 mph or so here, but they are out of the Northwest. Except for a few minutes ahead of a passing storm I don't think I have ever seen anything here that had anything other than an Easterly component to it. It's strange how you get used to little things like that. It feels so weird sitting out there right now with the wind just somehow coming from the 'wrong' direction.

I still hope we get at least a little rain!

Tom (aka XR)

 

[Ken]

Just talked with Kim Beddall in Samana. She told me it was flat calm there. High tide, but no wind or waves.

She said she had talked with someone in El Portillo/Las Terrenas earlier and that there were no waves there, either. No beach because it is covered by the high tide, but no waves.

My experience has been that after a hurricane passes that it is dead calm. Probably the hurricane has sucked all the energy out of the atmosphere. We were in Puerto Rico a couple of times when a hurricane passed and returned to Samana soon after it passed. The Mona Passage was always dead calm. This, I think, is what is being experienced now.

 

[quaqualita]

no wind, no waves, no surfers

just came back from Cabarete beach. There is very little wind there and coming from the "wrong" direction. The only thing what really looked strange, that there were absolutely no wind- or kitesurfers out - in a bay where you usually see hundreds of them. The ocean looks grey, but it considerably calm, you can see only a few waves breaking out at the reef. No high tides here either.

 

[Dolores1]

I had started this thread commenting that while many of us -- and apparently there are many -- are fascinated by hurricanes, the likelihood of one hitting one's city of residence in the DR was slight. I mentioned that Santo Domingo, for instance, had suffered hurricanes about every 20 years. Just take a look at the track record at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_climo.html

Regarding hurricanes in the DR, this is the summary of hurricanes that have hit, from our hurricane page:

Santo Domingo:_
San Zen?n. 3 September 1930._
David. 31 August 1979 (Category 4)._Santo Domingo and Southwest Coast.
Georges. 22 September 1998 (Category 3). Also affecting almost the entire South Coast before moving inland.

Others that did not affect Santo Domingo, were:_
-Katie. 16 October 1955. Cabo Rojo (Southwest), winds of 125 kilometers._
-Edith. 26-27 September 1963. La Romana (Southeast), 160 kms. It took La Romana another 25 years to get another big hit._
-Ines. 29 September 1966. Enriquillo (Southwest), winds of 240 kms. per hour._
-Beulah. 10-11 September 1967. Barahona (Southwest) 225 kms per hour._
-Emely. 22 September 1987, Bani (Southwest), 220 kph._
-Gilbert. 11 September 1988. Barahona (Southwest) and East. 200 kms. per hour._
-Hortense. 10 September 1996. East. 130 kms per hour.

May I stress again, since this was brought up in this thread, that a hurricane could affect one coast of the DR and not be felt in another. Thus, even if Isabel had brushed Puerto Plata, Santo Domingo would not have suffered much.

Special thanks to our moderator Xanadu for his comments and updates for dr1 daily news. Thanks to all for participating here and making it so educational and lively. Definitely we are now better prepared at DR1 to weather any storm. Nothing seems to be coming up, but one never knows until October is over (September has always been the worst month for the DR) as one can see from the list above.

Now that Isabel is on its way past us, let us all do what I promised Escott at the start of this thread...

 

[XanaduRanch]

What was That?

Pat his self-admittedly hairy back? I think I'll wait until after the Viking football game!

 

[Ken]

It's like this. At 24.5N/70W waves, not much rain, no big problems. South of 22.25N/70W we get TS force winds and very heavy rains. South of 20.50/70W hurricane force winds. It's at 21.6N now. So straight west it's going to be wet and windy. If it drops just 75 miles southward over 72 hours we get a real hurricane.

And at 25.6N/70W, which is the 5pm position today, we have just another day in Cabarete and Sosua.

Gracias a Dios.

 

[Camden Tom]

Camden Tom And Mary say........

WHEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!