Hurricane Season 2007

[planner]

While that is during what tends to be the more active time, the odds of them being in a hurricane are pretty slim.

Also rest assured that should something happen both the hotels and the tour operators are well equiped to deal with things and to evacuate the area if need be.

In direct answer - please don't worry!

 

[ljsmith]

Honeymoon weather

Thank you for your reply planner

 

[Chris]

The area of weather that we've been watching has entered the Caribbean as a tropical wave and an area of low pressure. The system has persisted over the past few days, but has not strengthened. It is now entering a set of conditions that are not very favorable for development, although the potential is there as always in the Tropics during Hurricane Season

All being equal, we should get a lot of tropical thundershowers as this weather system blows over us.

- moving westward at a fast clip of 25 miles per hour
- a hurricane hunter is on its way to investigate the system
- upper winds flow are cyclonic over the Caribbean
- the current track shows it passing South of the DR
- this is what it looks like

 

[Chris]

The shower activity associated with the tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean has diminished and currently it looks like it does not want to develop further.

The track looks like it is headed further West and most models predict it staying that way. We will however see cloudiness and showers as an outflow of this system in the next couple of days. The system looks like it is tracking closer to Central America than to the Island Chain. Most models predict that it will stay that way. Tomorrow (correction .. TODAY) is the day that will tell if it wants to develop or not. It is however moving real fast and this alone would keep it from further development.

So, at the moment, it looks like cloudiness and rain showers for us as the system passes well to the South of us.

 

[Chris]

The first real tropical wave in our waters this hurricane season has now moved well inland over Central America and further development is not anticipated. I have no doubt that we will see a few more of these.

 

[Chris]

Damn! Its too quiet out there. Somehow like if your kids are very quiet, you go and check on them because sure they're doing something weird.

Our weather forms mainly East of the Caribbean in what is called the Intratropical-Covergence zone and off the African West Coast. All is quiet in those two areas and none of the models suggest anything happening.

However it is now August, and things can change really fast. I've decided to enjoy these few days of peace and quiet and hope that they last for the whole hurricane season.

 

[drewschurle]

chris-im new to the board but will be in punta cana from august 19-22nd...is there any way to know what to expect weather-wise for these dates? I know that we are about two weeks out right now-Any assistance would be great. I've heard that punta cana is rarely hit by hurricanes, but i've wondered how valid this opinion is.

Thank you for any help you can provide-

take care
andrew

 

[Chris]

I've heard that punta cana is rarely hit by hurricanes, but i've wondered how valid this opinion is.

Thank you for any help you can provide-

take care
andrew

Andrew, the DR is seldom hit by hurricanes. It is just that during this part of the year, the probability of a hurricane is higher. Chances are that nothing will happen. And if something happens, your hotel most probably has a hurricane plan in place. We will report here if there is anything serious on the horizon. And you can tell your family and friends to check the country status if anything should happen .. http://www.dr1.com/status/index.shtml

 

[Chris]

Looks like we're going to get a little rain and tropical storms for the next day or two or three. It should be scattered thundershowers and should not really interfere with your vacation. Just be ready to do something else when the rain starts pouring down. Currently, it looks like about 3 days of showers.

Be aware that the DR is very dry currently and mudslides and flash flooding is possible.

 

[Kyle]

the us govt reduced the prediction for the number of hurricanes this season.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070809/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_forecast

 

[Chris]

Thanks Kyle, I'm so slack with nothing serious on the horizon that I did not even realize that the new numbers were out.

Yes, both longer terms predictions that we look at has been decreased a little. I'm keen to see what happens this season as it looks like the longer term forecasting methods is not proving very successful right at the moment.

Anyway, in the DR .. If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes :laugh: It will change.

 

[Chris]

I've been watching storm models for the past few hours as the weather systems in the Caribbean are now becoming very active. The models are predicting two storms to brew up and reach the Caribbean sometime toward the end of next week. A larger one that is leaving the African coast tomorrow, and a smaller one riding on the back of the first one. Some models curve both storms toward Central America and some models predict the larger one to reach the Bahamas in around 14 days. For us, if it reaches us, it will be about 12 days out.

The experts generally agree that next week is the week that our hurricane season will really start. I've never paid much attention to longer term forecasting during hurricane season in the Caribbean and the Tropics, as it is usually just to volatile to make a good call. I think however we can start expecting some storms in the vicinity of the Caribbean starting end of next week.

Currently, we have 5 tropical waves riding in .. one a little past us, one kinda on top of us and three more coming. We'll watch and see what next week brings.

 

[Chris]

We have a tropical wave over the Eastern Parts of the DR which is dumping some rain on us. Rain will increase during the day. The San Juan Doppler radar has another wave of scattered showers on the horizon.

Then, the news is that a vigorous tropical wave has now left the African coast and some computer models develop this one into a good sized tropical cyclone. We'll keep watching and will keep you informed.

 

[Chris]

All the talk is about the system, now named invest 90, which is the first real Cape Verde system of the season. It is still classified as a tropical wave, although it should be classified as a tropical depression in the next day or so.

We have a good number of days yet to watch this one but it is a call to have a final look at your own hurricane preparedness plans. We have some notes for you here.

The models at this stage put it into the Caribbean as a tropical cyclone toward the end of next week. Do remember that models are only models and have at least a 1,000 mile margin of error at this early stage of the game. Early systems have traditionally trended North past the DR into the Atlantic and many waves off Africa die down a bit after the initial phase, so this system may still lose it and hopefully it will. However conditions are good enough to hold it together for the foreseeable future. (Just after writing this, the new advisories tell me that the system is up against some strong head winds)

Here are results of some of the early model runs. Don't forget to finalize your own hurricane preparedness plan if you are anywhere in a Dominican Republic coastal region.

Tropical Weather... Done Better!?

 

[Bob K]

It is looking a little more organized this morning.


Bob K

 

[Squat]

I guess we'll be on high hurricane alert from friday night and saturday morning, as it looks like this one is coming our way...

 

[Chris]

It is very early days ... remember, at least 1,000 miles error in results of model plots at this early stage and traditionally these storms veer North of us, back into the Atlantic. For us, it is watching time and for you, you should be making sure that you have a good hurricane preparedness plan and can execute it fast and in a calm manner.

Tropical depression 4 is about 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression is moving toward the West at 21 miles per hour and should continue this tack for at least the next 24 hours. Expectations are that we will see tropical storm development in the next day or so.

I want to caution at this stage that because we had a slow season last year and a record season the previous year, the television talking heads will be milking the wee-wee out of this one - especially if we have slow news days. We'll keep you informed here for our island but let's please not get spooked this early.

 

[Squat]

Chris, this is what triggered my curiosity about this system, it's this forecast :
Wind forecast Caribbean (Dominican Rep.,Venezuela)

 

[Chris]

What? You want to go surfing :laugh:

 

[Chris]

Here is an early plot of where all the forecasting models place the storm. Note it is early days. Tropical Storm Dean is expected to form from TD#4 later tonight or tomorrow. The storm is expected to enter the Caribbean as a Cat 1 or 2 storm.

Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University