here we go.
the last hours I did just watch what the weathersites are up on, even the Hurricane Center is using Terms like "If it crosses Hispaniola".
til now there is not Turn NorthEastward, Emily walks straight West and struggles on Powers, she did not improve anything on Powers since yesterday afternoon, due dry air and Windshear on her path. Emily is quiet devided in sections as a Storm, the Thunderstorm Activity is not concentrated around a Center, the heaviest Rainloads are located on the Northeast of the Storm, we will get our share in Punta Cana within the next 2hrs according to the Puerto Rican Radar Station.
as long as Emily does not Intensify She will NOT Turn North IMHO, because we have No Mid level Winds to Steer the Storm Northwards.
the Steeriong Winds High Up in the Atmosphere would turn Emily, but She is too Small/not tall enough, not reaching the Top Height into the Atmosphere, so those Steering Winds do not touch Emily.
I guess the Weathersites and the Models do since last Eve simply not have a Clue what Emily is up to, so they just wait and every couple hours of a further westward track they modify the Tracking Models Path more towards the West.
no complaint about such, what can not be known can not be known.
as Fact Emmily is a weak and actually Not Intensifying Tropical Storm on a straight Western Sweep, so I say She will go on Westward til She reachs more favorable surroundings which allow to Intensify Powers, then the Steering Winds will start to bring the Storm Northwards.
as long as there are no more Powers there will not be a Nothwards Turn hence no Landfall in the DR.
what we will get on Hispaniola is the Rain, Yes, as a large amount is now approaching the Eastshores, but nothing to Fear neither.
Mike