Hurricane Season 2011

[MikeFisher]

don't forget that the South been hit by Rain and Stormsurge much Harder than the North during Irene,
so they shouldn't cry too much.
the worst parts are not automatically where the Center been nearest, aside of a straight Hit with the Eyewall of a Heavy Hurricane of course, but all that small Stormy stuff is when you need to search the Maps for the strong Rainbands and the Areas with the heaviest Thunderstorms not located with the Center.
Maria has since long a hard to spot/partly not existing Center, the Windshear took Her formation apoart the last 2 Days, hence she is widespread and now reorganizing will be back as a very large in Size Storm.
which side of the DR will get more of Maria is not decided, yet.
that the Center will pass the Isle far NE doesn't matter, Her Center may be the calmest Location to Hide at a Time, lol.

we will watch and see, She doesn't look like a Killer for our Isle.

Mike

 

[jrjrth]

we will watch and see, She doesn't look like a Killer for our Isle.


~Yup that's right Mike...that's all one can do...and keep as prepared as one can!!!!....Plenty of greenies in the Frig...n gas for the generator...lol

 

[MikeFisher]

I have a Ton of Diesel filled up in the Gladiator's Tank, so even if all Powers at the Marina would shut down we could keep the Baits and Greenies in the Freezers perfectly cold for weeks running the 3rd Diesel for A/C, Fridges, Stove, Radio/Music and Microwave, ha ha.
till that Fuel run's out we will sure be back on Powers, lol

Maria is superlarge in Size and growing, she will cover most of the eastern Caribbean.
how Hard?, I don't know, the powers will be different isolated by Areas, from just cloudy over strong Gusts up to heaviest Rainloads. impossible to predict which Area will get which Part.
I vote for the lil Clouds for the SE, lol.

Mike

 

[jrmirador@alumni.iu.edu]

Tropical Storm Maria

Here's a sat pic if her (she? : ) taken at 2:00 pm today.

 

[Acira]

We have since 2 days now much higher waves then normally (Cabarete Kite beaches). Explanation here I get is that it is because the waves are rolling in a direct line to the beach and not sidewards as they usually do. Any body some more explanation for that?

 

[MikeFisher]

those wave action on the Northshore and the same for the cloudy day on the East today which is since a few hours getting very windy and isolated also Rainy is still not Maria, it is what been pushed ahead of Her and dragged in the Tail of Katia, a lil Disturbance I mentioned a couple days ago which is now right over the Isle.
it will not go before Maria's influence is present, so sorrily we will not get sunburned this weekend.

Maria is intensifying very slow, but that been awaited since windshear took her quiet hard apart,
but she has as a very large in Size weak Tropical Storm for a very large Area a overall Spin on, She get's the Drift, and She is moving Waterloads influenced by Her Spin over a very wide Area, almost from the 10th"N up to the 25th"N.
to me she looks quiet capable to keep the $hit of such wide Area together and move it on Her Tracking.
due that size she will not intensify very quick the next 24hrs, but she intensifies.
the windshear is already down on below 10Knots and falling, with that derease of counterwinds Maria will get better organized and increase Her own Powers.
for the Virgins and Eastern Puerto Rico She will be just a nearby mid Range Tropical Storm, but be aware of Her Waters, that waterload is growing by the Hour since this morning.
we have $hitty weather already on here on the east and it will not come any better for some Days from now , I am glad that I brought the Boat out this afternoon against all the good meant advises from others, they will have a heck of a Ride to do so tomorrow, as the Sea off Punta Cana will get very rough from now on, Rising by the Hour.
there is no danger to get a Hit from Maria for the DR, not even for Puerto Rico, but She covers such a wide Area that almost nothing in the Northern, Central and SE'ern Caribbean will stay Free of Influence by the B$tch.
you can take a almost Live Look on Her right Her, it updates itself every 30 minutes
Central Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

no Fear of Winds, but She has Her Powers and that Huge Size.
I really hate that Fat Azz,
as I know it will kick Mine for many days to come in case of Fishing, lol.

you get a even better Idea about Her Fat Azz on the IR-Floater shown on Tropical Floater Three IR2 Imagery Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution
just keep in mind that the meaning of the Colors on IR are reverse to the Daylight Satshots,
what is shown here as white are not the Clouds but the good and calmer Areas,
what is shown Dark/Dark Green and Black is the Bad Stuff.
the IR coverage stays on 24/7.

I will watch Her every few horus, but I already know that she is for me a P.I.T.A.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

on the 8PM Update Maria has placed Her fat Azz already on the 15th"N,
running a full NW Track, that brings the DR just on the farest Corner in the Cone of Certainties of the Storms Track and we should even get completely kicked out of it during Tonight.

Maria is fighting hard to get Her act together, she moves a large wide Mass of Water around, not a easy Task for the Gal,
but lil by lil she seems to manage that hard Work.
upper Level Outflow is seen on all Sectors, a sign that the Basics for a Cyclone are prepared,
but she will gain powers very slowly as She has that huge Mass to Move in the right Rhytm to grow and not knock down herself under her own Weight.
I don't see any danger that Maria could be a Hurricane the next 24-36hrs,
if she goes on with Her slow progress and considering that the Windshear is Forecasted to stay in the lower Range below 10knots, then I would say she will be a Cat1 by Sunday Noon when walking far North of the DR, after she passed Her closest approach Point to our sweet sunny Soil, even that we do not have much of a sunny Outlook for the Weekend.
we will see how she manages Her masses tonight, in the morning we will see how big of a Portion is moving in a common spin with the Center and what will be send out far away to other Grounds.

here on the East we are at the moment completely quiet again, the Ocean out there isn't, but here on shore we have zero wind to feel after the late afternoon Thunders passed through some isolated Areas.

looks like our lil Disturbance passing the Islands is in case of the eastcoast gone by now, the Rest over Land can be seen still on the western edge of the radar NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands
on the Eastern side of the Radar it looks still clear, but by tomorrow morning we will see there the approach of Marias Kiddies to fill da Screens.
I would guess it rained in quiet some regions of the Isle Today such as Samana and also around Santiago.
How's the weather up there Hillbilly?

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

just wanted to add the Distance of a Gap between the actual Disturbance and the arrival of the first wet Portions of Maria, considering She does not change any Directions and sticks exactly to Her actual NW Tracking.
Her SW'ern Bands are right now 300 Miles SE of my House(Cabeza de Toro/PC), makes a 20hrs of a Gap,
and Her West which is on the Line for Eastern Puerto Rico is actually located 180Miles SE of PR, makes a 12hrs Gap.

early morning for the Virgins, mid morning for eastern PR, early Eve for PC.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

nothing special on Maria since the 9PM update.
she moved the last 3 hours a bit less North and more West, a WNW'ern Track,
but it is usual that they walk a zickzack and not on a imaginery straight Line.
I can't see that she would have gained significant powers,
we will see in the morning how she looks and behaves over the lil Islands to Our East.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

as predicted yesterday, last night the DR drifted out of the Cone of uncertainty of Maria.
She will be for Us just a Rainfront passing East of Puerto Rico on a NW-Track which most likely will mess up theOcean for some Days.
how mych or little Rain we get is hard to say, Maria been huge and growing yesterday, but she looks much smaller in size today and wanders over the Antilles where she will Rain down a lot, so it is hard to guess how much rain will be left after Her walk over there. for the SE, E and NE I would recommend that People do their shopping for the next couple Days today and do not plan on long Roadrides during Sunday/Monday, that way there;s no need to Drive around in case some Roads may get flooded.

Maria does not look like a very Bad Gal this morning and I can't find Her overall Spin She had on last evening,
maybe she grew simply too big in Size to manage that Size with Her weak Powers, not bad at all for everyone on Her Way.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

She is approaching/reaching the First Islands now and should reach the East of Puerto Rico in maybe 6hrs later.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

even just during the few hours this morning it seems as if Maria is falling apart,
she spreeds out wide but does not show any common Spin or such for her Areas.
she's shown on 15mphr forward Movement to NW,
but to me it seems as if Her "Center" is almost stuck east of the Islands, just blowing out some rains and thunderstorms to different Directions.
such Development will leave Us here completely Fine, maybe she will not even make it in any good shape over the small Islands, not that Bad of an Idea, we will see what she's up to, by now it looks all good for Us.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

looks even better by the Hour in case of Maria.
She will be a No Show for the DR, even for the eastshores.
there is not even a real Center to spot anymore, she is spread out over a wide Area from North to South,
thunderstorms do not show any organization anymore.
the Windshear forecasted to go down did not do so, she is under 15-20knots of damaging Counterwinds,
no way the Lady recovers the next 2 Days If ever.
on Her closest approach far out NE of the DR she should not be more than Ex-Maria, just a Tropical depression at best.
the Sun is back on the East after a few clouds in the early morning, Ocean isn't half as bad as expected to be.

we can move on and focus on the next Baby in the Lineup on da Highway, should be a Invest on NOAA soon.
located 1200 Miles East of the Islands we have the next Disturbance up,
but that far away not worth to spend Time on it, after the weekend will be soon enough to see If there is something brewing out there.

Have a great Sunny wekend everyone,
all Keybords should stay Dry, lol.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

with all Her struggles and counterwinds, She is a tough Lady that Maria.
she managed to increase Her max Winds to 50mphr,
She is over the NE'ernmost Island now and covers rainwise with light winds til down to the southermost Islands,
not a danger She is a PITA for the Weather all around.
here on the east we are this Eve on a strong Breeze(not any dangerous kinda Breeze) and the Ocean is a dangerous offshore Mess, exactly what bothers Myself so much on those lil B$tchy thingies wannabe Stormies, they do nothing but bother the seet Fisherman's Islandlife, lol.
the 11PM Update shows not Tracking Difference, she stays away from Puerto Rico and tho even further from Us,
and there will not be any Sunburns for the weekend in Punta Cana.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

a mix of Clouds and Sun this morning in Cabeza de Toro/PC.
Ocean been up on Top, a rough Mass last night but at the moment on a phase to calm down again.
Maria did still not pass Her point of cposest approach to us and she changed Herself into a New Look for the Paseo del Domingo.
She shrinked Her size a lot and started to organize the smaller Mass.
she does not show a common Spin or real Center, yet, but seems on a way of bettering.
Maria's Central Pressure is dropping and Her ma Windforce rose from 40mphr to actually 60mphr since yesterday afternoon,
those are signs of a starting quick intensification.
the windshear Forecast shows quiet some hard counterwinds on Her N and NE but the windshear Forecasts lately been on Maria and Katia and Irene quiet very unreliable, Her fast growing Windpowers do not indicate to me as if she would struggle, but more that She is on a way to get Organized.
on the Pace of Her actual Growing Up She could become a Cat1 during late tomorrow, IF She get's Her Thunderstorms Centered in a organized Manner and If She will not catch hard Windshear again.

there are no changes on the expected Tracking for Maria.
She wanders NE on a slow Pace and will pass Us well far out on the NE and on a WNW'ern Track along the Northshores far Offshore, She will even stay far out off SE'ern Bahamas.

the First approach of Her Rain is since this morning seen on the Eastern Edge of the Puerto Rican Radar on NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

at the Moment the Offshore Sea here on the East looks like calming down for some hours, but I fear that we will get some rough swells back during tonight, close call for fishing tomorrow or not.\

No Danger from Maria for the DR and actually nothing of a Danger anywhere out there for the next Days.

Happy Sunny Sundays

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

sunny over here on the East.
no changes on Maria,
she seems to me almost stationary with Her Center over ther Northernmost islands, but her existing Storms and Rains are anyways more out on Her East.
She is shown on the 11AM Update as moving WNW slowly, but She is mostly standing still/moving extremely slow on a over all NW Tracking as She did since a long Time Now.
Her final Destin with what ever powers should finally be New Foundland before the next weekend, late Friday or during Saturday, where She still could produce Tropical Storm Force Winds but on the other side such is not more than the Area is used to during their Noreasterns, nothing special and nothing of a Danger.
I say She will reach the Hurricane Status for a while on Her Week long Journey, but not any near of Us or other endangered Areas, maybe Bermuda will get some winds and rains, but that's hard to predict that far ahead for a small spot in the wide Ocean such as Bermuda.

interesting outcome of Hurricane/Ex Hurricane Katia, she will bring as a Extra Tropical Storm winds of Tropical Storm Force to Northern Ireland and Western Scottland and can be expected to do quiet some Damage to the Forrests/Tree Population over there in Europe. so for the british Visitors to our Caribbean Isle concerned about Hurricane Season as fact it is til now more dangerous to stay at home on the Northern British Isles than to Visit the DR during Hurricane Peak Season, as we did not receive not close to such Forces out of Emily nor Irene nor Maria this Season.
if it gets boring in case of Storms here in the Caribbean we Islanders may just take a Flight to Europe to get our Stormwatch, lolol.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

no changes on Tropical Storm Maria.

she will be during tonight on her closest approach to my Homedoor heer in Cabeza de Toro/PC,
nothing will happen here while she passes by, as she is far offshore and carries her Thunderstorms and Rains on Her NE Side, away from Us.
around 24 hrs after she passed we may get some Rains with minor winds as she carries also a smaller Load on Her southern Tail, but it may also stay far enough away to effect, as she wanders straight NW away from us then.

both Loads are now clearly on the Puerto Rican radar to watch on NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

Maria is a completely No Show for Punta Cana, except that she keeps the Ocean Messed Up after a small unnamed Disturbance brought the Sea up 2 Days ago, bad for the Fisherman but all the others will continue to have Fun in da Sun here on the East.

nothing dangerous to spot out there off our East at this Time and nothing expected to form up the next couple Days.

Mike

 

[Acira]

I hope Maria does not mess too much with the NC waters like Katie did. It was a heck of a job last Thursday for some boats to get them on shore with the winch...damn dangerous.

 

[MikeFisher]

Maria should stay far off your NC Coastline, more a concern for New Foundland than NC.

here in POC we have this morning during the rising Tide quiet High Waves onshore, also offshore Sea is still very High,
so no fishing today, I moved the Charters for Tomorrow morning.

aside of the Wave Action Punta Cana is sunny since early on, wind is down near Zero, not many clouds in vicinity.
Maria's Waters are still East of Puerto Rico moving NW'wards.

nothing bad in vicinity over here.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

that's the weather, unpredictable.

Maria is almost Stationary, just drifting on 2-3 Knots straight Westward, that Track could stay on for the next 15-20hrs.

and while I checked this morning the Radar, with nothing of Maria's Rains any near Punta Cana,
we got it from the Landside, forming up over the Hills of Higuey, and since 25 Minutes dumping down quiet a Waterload over Bavaro here on the East.
Zero Wind, those clouds moved in slowly and the water comes straight down.
Maria should position Herself centered right North of the Mona Channel on around 67"-68"W this evening,
from then on we will also get the Rain from Her Southern Portion.

I just hope She dumps it all down this Eve and Tonight,
due that Sea Conditions should be very fine in the morning to go back Fishing since an other very long weekend without work.

the exact Timing is hard to Forecast on a almost stationary/slow drifting Storm,
to watch and wait it out is the only thing to do.

Mike