hurricane season 2017

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Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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Here is the forecast for 2017 courtesy Stormcarib http://stormcarib.com/

Below normal hurricane season forecasted


As a long time tradition the scientists at Colorado State have issued their Atlantic Hurricane Activity forecast. Philip Klotzbach and his team is calling for a slightly below average season. They expect 11 named storms (12 is normal), 4 hurricanes (6.5 is normal) of which 4 might become big ones (Cat-3+, 3.9 is normal).
The probability of at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean is 34% (42% is normal). The main reasons for this is that the Atlantic is pretty cool at the moment due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, also, it looks like there might be weak El Nino conditions developing in the summer, which is not conducive to hurricane formation either.
Three Caribbean locations have an above 10% change that a major hurricane will track within 50 miles some time during hurricane season: The Bahamas (29%), Cuba (19%) and Mexico (13%). Not sure how they calculate this, but it looks like size/area is a factor too.
In any case, even if chances are small, there is still a chance! Only one big hurricane hitting your island will spoil your whole season! So, regardless, be ready! The best thing is to prepare now. Check that all your shutters are ready, have some supply of water, food, batteries and other emergency supplies. You all should know the drill by now. It is a lot easier to prepare for things now then just a few days before a storm might hit, when everyone else is scrambling at the grocery and home improvement stores

Thanks to GERT of StormCarib

Olly
 

sanpedrogringo

I love infractions!
Sep 2, 2011
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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arlene-Bret-Cindy-Don-Emily-Franklin-Gert-Harvey-Irma-Jose-Katia-Lee-Maria-Nate-Ophelia-Philippe-Rina-Sean-Tammy-Vince-Whitney.
 

j&t's future

Active member
Mar 6, 2007
2,491
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Here is the forecast for 2017 courtesy Stormcarib http://stormcarib.com/

Below normal hurricane season forecasted


As a long time tradition the scientists at Colorado State have issued their Atlantic Hurricane Activity forecast. Philip Klotzbach and his team is calling for a slightly below average season. They expect 11 named storms (12 is normal), 4 hurricanes (6.5 is normal) of which 4 might become big ones (Cat-3+, 3.9 is normal).
The probability of at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean is 34% (42% is normal). The main reasons for this is that the Atlantic is pretty cool at the moment due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, also, it looks like there might be weak El Nino conditions developing in the summer, which is not conducive to hurricane formation either.
Three Caribbean locations have an above 10% change that a major hurricane will track within 50 miles some time during hurricane season: The Bahamas (29%), Cuba (19%) and Mexico (13%). Not sure how they calculate this, but it looks like size/area is a factor too.
In any case, even if chances are small, there is still a chance! Only one big hurricane hitting your island will spoil your whole season! So, regardless, be ready! The best thing is to prepare now. Check that all your shutters are ready, have some supply of water, food, batteries and other emergency supplies. You all should know the drill by now. It is a lot easier to prepare for things now then just a few days before a storm might hit, when everyone else is scrambling at the grocery and home improvement stores

Thanks to GERT of StormCarib

Olly
Olly, where has "THE TEAM" gone?
 

Conchman

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Jul 3, 2002
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Here is the forecast for 2017 courtesy Stormcarib http://stormcarib.com/

Below normal hurricane season forecasted


As a long time tradition the scientists at Colorado State have issued their Atlantic Hurricane Activity forecast. Philip Klotzbach and his team is calling for a slightly below average season. They expect 11 named storms (12 is normal), 4 hurricanes (6.5 is normal) of which 4 might become big ones (Cat-3+, 3.9 is normal).
The probability of at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean is 34% (42% is normal). The main reasons for this is that the Atlantic is pretty cool at the moment due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, also, it looks like there might be weak El Nino conditions developing in the summer, which is not conducive to hurricane formation either.
Three Caribbean locations have an above 10% change that a major hurricane will track within 50 miles some time during hurricane season: The Bahamas (29%), Cuba (19%) and Mexico (13%). Not sure how they calculate this, but it looks like size/area is a factor too.
In any case, even if chances are small, there is still a chance! Only one big hurricane hitting your island will spoil your whole season! So, regardless, be ready! The best thing is to prepare now. Check that all your shutters are ready, have some supply of water, food, batteries and other emergency supplies. You all should know the drill by now. It is a lot easier to prepare for things now then just a few days before a storm might hit, when everyone else is scrambling at the grocery and home improvement stores

Thanks to GERT of StormCarib

Olly
Since they get it wrong most of the time, this is not assuring. Usually they predict "higher than normal" and then there is not much activity.
 

jstarebel

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Oct 4, 2013
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Thanks for the post Olly. I disagree and will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong, but it's been a very quiet three years in the Caribbean storm wise with only one major storm in those three years which tore up Haiti pretty bad last year. I believe this so much and because we have a summer project beginning on St.Maarten in July, that I just invested $1,500. In a good strong storm mooring inside the lagoon area of SXM for the boat. Four Sand screws and two 800kg block tied together with 1 1/2" chain. I hope I bought it for nothing, but I don't think so this year. Y'all know what BOAT stands for?? Break Out Another Thousand! Ok, 1500..
 

ju10prd

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Nov 19, 2014
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Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year

NOAA today in an updated report is predicting that an above normal hurricane season is more likely this year due to a weak or non-existent El Nino and normal or above normal sea temperatures.

70% likelihood of 11- 17 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes and 2- 4 majors.

Get ready!

(Colorado State will be updating their forecast on 1st June apparently.)
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
so far absolutely nothing to worry about.
on the long cycles we are on the aerage or even lower side of stormy actions.
on the short term/for this Season, so far the conditions look like a normal/average phase on the scales.
shiit can hit even on a lowest activity phase, and all can stay fine(as prooved so often) duirng heavy action phases.
until now there is nothing to worry about for the 2017 Season,
hence no time spent to report about "nothing".
we keep watching out for what ever may pop up out there,
in the meanwhile we keep playing on da Beaches, chasing Chicas and GO FISHING!!!

cheers from perfect sunny Eastern Skies

Mike
 
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