Is the Government ready to fall?

S

SDecatur

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Please consider this a serious request for information, not a slam or joke.

Is the present Dominican Government in imminent peril of collapsing?

From the information I have gathered from this board, the tales of government corruption, the free falling peso, the presence of U.S Soldiers on the Haitian Border and today?s sailing of the ?Big Stick? on a ?deviated course? all make me wonder if the US is either planning or supporting some type of change in the present Government of the DR
 

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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I would very much doubt that the US is doing anything that could ever be linked to it. It has plenty on its plate right now with Iraq and the war on terrorism. Moving against an elected goverment in the Dominican Republic would make no sense at a time when it is trying to maintain a world coalition in support of removing all weapons of mass destruction from Iraq.
 

MommC

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However if it is uncovered that the DR has become a mass trans-shipment point for illegal drugs and armaments under the auspices of the heads of state........then who knows???
 

Criss Colon

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Nothing will "Happen" this week! Ask me again next week.

"Jesus" Ken,the US Government is not going to "Move" against "Hipolito"! Stop reading all that "Fiction" and try a "History" book! The US will just stand by to protect US "Interests" from the "Angry Mobs" that will rule the streets.The Dominican Generals will then step in to "Restore Order" and after a "time" we can have the "Junta" allow the democratic election of a "new President! ...."MommC" we don't have to "discover" what we already "know"!CRISCCCCCCCCCC
 
S

SDecatur

Guest
Ken said:
I would very much doubt that the US is doing anything that could ever be linked to it. It has plenty on its plate right now with Iraq and the war on terrorism. Moving against an elected goverment in the Dominican Republic would make no sense at a time when it is trying to maintain a world coalition in support of removing all weapons of mass destruction from Iraq.
Ken

Thanks for the reply

I guess I should have been a little more careful in my wording. Certainly the US will not overtly try and change the Govt., I was referring to something along the lines of a "peace keeping" mission if the DR Govt. became unstable and US interests were in peril, or as usual, if a Govt. not "suitable" to US ideas seemed apparent to take over.

I have been told by very reliable people that US troops, specifically the 101st air assault and possibly the HS Truman Group are deploying for unscheduled "warm weather" exercises. maybe this is to prevent choas in Venezuela, i don't know, but an intervention in the DR or Haiti would hardly detact from the mission in Iraq. It wouldn't be much of a burden on US forces to maintain a presence in DR/Haiti, they would face little if any resistance. I am well aware of the previous haitian debacle, but I don't think the same 'white glove" approach will again be employed.

as much as I distrust him, Rumsfeld won't allow Us troops to deploy without proper support again, no more Somalia!!!
 

Pib

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I VERY MUCH doubt that we will have another 1965. Worst thing that can happen is that we have another 1984, resulting in a few dozens dead, something like Navarrete but worse. People living in the worst 'barrios' will suffer the cost in dead and wounded, the middle class will suffer the economical cost. I have to say I don't wish for this government to fall, I don't wish for a revolt, I just wish we out this idiot, in a democratic, peaceful way. Those who wish for a coup or a bloodbath, for any reason, are foolish, irresponsible, cruel and unsimpathetic to the plight of the poor in this country.

Actually, the drug money has done more good than harm to the economy. Just imagine such inept government without the income brought by the drug lords, 1984 would have arrived already.
 

Ken

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SDecatur said:
I guess I should have been a little more careful in my wording. Certainly the US will not overtly try and change the Govt., I was referring to something along the lines of a "peace keeping" mission if the DR Govt. became unstable and US interests were in peril, or as usual, if a Govt. not "suitable" to US ideas seemed apparent to take over.
I don't know if there are ever "normal times" for the US, but they certainly aren't now. A good share of the world is angry at the US and/or suspicious of its motives and increasingly convinced that it is using its military and economic muscle to rule the world. This at a time when the US wants and needs international support for the war on terrorism and some sort of resolution to the Iraq situation. For that reason I don't think it would risk further eroding its international support to by doing something in the DR that a good share of the world didn't agree, grudgingly though it might be, that the action was justified. The way things are unfolding, the day may come, but I don't think it will come as quickly as it might have some years ago.

But then your guess and that of anyone else is as good as mine.
 

Hillbilly

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101st is training for urban warfare: Bagdad ring a bell? the Harry S. Truman and her 8,000 man/women crew of Navy and Marines is off to the Gulf....

Read PIB's comments. Perfectly on the mark. For some time I have been saying we are getting closer and closer to 1984. Food is going out of sight, dollar is non-existant. Union Fenosa and AES are buying every dollar they can to pack up and get out, perhaps before they are thrown out without a penny (as they well should be!!).
This will not happen during baseball season, but shortly therafter.
1) Inflation is rampant
2)Peso is worth shitt! This affects everyone. A RD$100,000 salary is now worth RD$60,000 and a RD$3,000 peso salary is now RD$2,000 (actually it is less than that!)
3) Everything is more expensive, and therefore unattainable by people that heretofor could afford to buy it., This, in turn, creates enormous frustration within the general populous.
4) The corruption scandals are finally getting to be widely known...but still not widely enough.
5) Hippy comes back like Chamberlain in 1938, crying "Peace in our time!" US$400 million in ?what was that?

In general, it is all coming to a head. Too late....Just sorry we can't dig up the old man and start him up again....country needs fiscal discipline with a steel fist, and no damn velvet glove, either!!

HB, doomsayer
 
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S

SDecatur

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Hillbilly said:
101st is training for urban warfare: Bagdad ring a bell? the Harry S. Truman and her 8,000 man/women crew of Navy and Marines is off to the Gulf....

Maybe I siad something incorrect in my post? the "Big Stick" was scheduled to leave for her rotation in the Med., BUT part of her battle group, including a LST and 2 Aegis destroyers are seperating for unscheduled "warm weather" exercises. by warm weather i was referring to "tropical" equipment, nit the 70o weather one would expect for iraq.

It is highly unlikely the 101st would be used in an Invasion of Baghdad, they have no staging areas and are used primarily as 'shock" troops' not urban warfare as Baghdad surely will require.

the last time the US used Air mobile or air assault in an urban environment, it was a disaster. the 101st is more suited to a quick insertiojn followed by conventional troops or rangers to maintain the foothold set by AA, and the AA could or would then provide light air support for ground troops.

I am not familiar with what happened in the DR in 1984, but am interested?

I think y9u will find this unexpected US troop movement is either going to South America to Stand off shore, or possibly as a show of force for any troops located in the Haitian?dominican border region. they would also be the preferred troops should evacuation of US personell be required, or a rapid insertion into a lightly defended urban area be required, they would not be the force to engage heavy armor such as would be anticipated in Baghdad.
 

Pib

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Funny that you are discussing a possible US intervention based on your views of the DR economy if you don't even know what happened in 1984. Short answer: No. It is very unlikely the US will intervene a la 1965.

In 1984 the PRD government was doing exactly what they are doing now. Inflation skyrocketed, people revolted (Capotillo, of course), a few dozen people died in the hands of the anti-riot police (cascos negros). The IMF would not bail us out (not even Argentina was) and we ended up playing by the IMF's rules in what was one (if not THE) worst economic crisis in this century.

I was a kid then, but I remember.
 

MommC

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Pib- it's too bad more people hadn't remembered before they voted for the PRD in the last election.
No doubt "Hippo" remembers it also but by now he's had enought time for him and his cronies to "line" their safe deposit boxes so that when the going gets tough they'll be "gone"!
 
S

SDecatur

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Pib said:
Funny that you are discussing a possible US intervention based on your views of the DR economy if you don't even know what happened in 1984. Short answer: No. It is very unlikely the US will intervene a la 1965.

In 1984 the PRD government was doing exactly what they are doing now. Inflation skyrocketed, people revolted (Capotillo, of course), a few dozen people died in the hands of the anti-riot police (cascos negros). The IMF would not bail us out (not even Argentina was) and we ended up playing by the IMF's rules in what was one (if not THE) worst economic crisis in this century.

I was a kid then, but I remember.
PIB

Why do you find it "funny" that I am asking about the 84" incident? I don't pretend to know anything aboutthe economy of the DR. If you have read my posts, I asked "based on what I have read on DR1 AND movements of US troops". I don't pretend to know a thing about the DR with the exception of what I have read here and on the net, you apparently have decided WHAT my opinions are in lieu of reading what I posted?

I do have a great deal of insight regarding US military actions and policy, mostly of recent times. I base my discussions on that, something you seem to have knowledge of also as you have decreed it "unlikely the US will act"

I also realize criticizing you is sacriligious on this forum, so say as you wish, or delete, remove etc. sometimes even YOU get posts twisted, I admit no knowledge of the DR economy or politics, can you say the same of your insight into US "Military Politics?"

If you will go to the original question I posted, it was to do with the possibbility of the US acting based upon what I have gathered to be the "truth" according to DR1!

No need for you to change my wording and become insulting, I admit ignorance of subjects, that is why I asked :)
 

Pib

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If you had read things carefully you would know that I can't delete or change anything in this forum. Funny, ain't it that you get your undies all tangled because of my comment. I see that you registered in October, IIRC I hadn't posted on DR1 more than a few times in the last two months and haven't deleted or edited anything in that time. Hmmm.... You've spend too much of that time thinking about me... Have we met in a previous life?

I stand by my original words. I am not an expert on US military, as I am sure that you as an ex-US soldier are, nor do I claim to know anything about the US military. But I think (NOTICE: THINK) that even if we continue this current trend things will not get anywhere near what happened in 1965. At worse 1984 again.
 
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m65swede

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Pib said:
But I think (NOTICE: THINK) that even if we continue this current trend things will not get anywhere near what happened in 1965. At worse 1984 again.
I agree with Pib on this one. I'm certainly no expert on the 1984 crisis, but was living in the DR before, during and after the 1965 revolution. US military sent to the DR in '65 included a few Marines, lots of 82nd Airborne, and a few MP's (503rd, I believe).

This current situation just doesn't have the "feel" of '65. But I sincerely hope that Dominicans can solve this one mostly on their own; the sooner the better.

Swede
 
S

SDecatur

Guest
This makes more sense

Pib said:
If you had read things carefully you would know that I can't delete or change anything in this forum. Funny, ain't it that you get your undies all tangled because of my comment. I see that you registered in October, IIRC I hadn't posted on DR1 more than a few times in the last two months and haven't deleted or edited anything in that time. Hmmm.... You've spend too much of that time thinking about me... Have we met in a previous life?

I stand by my original words. I am not an expert on US military, as I am sure that you as an ex-US soldier are, nor do I claim to know anything about the US military. But I think (NOTICE: THINK) that even if we continue this current trend things will not get anywhere near what happened in 1965. At worse 1984 again.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS PIB
 

jojocho

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Dejando a un lado el chisme....

Does anybody remember the "Operacion Duarte" back in '84?

I sometimes worry that His Dumbness will try to use a similar measure to try and fight the current devaluation of the peso.
 

Tony C

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Don't you people watch the news?
I fully expect the US to send a Navy show of force to the Caribbean. But it is not for the DR.
VENEZUELA people!!!!
 

MikeKO

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************ NEWS FLASH *************

The cold war is over!! Democracies won. Therefore, the danger of geographically sensitive countries entering the communist orbit is zero. That translates into, the US just doesn't care. Unless the place devolves into genocide, there will be no US troops in DR. Venezuela sounds like a good bet, because it does have something US cares about.

Mike
 

MommC

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Oil!!!!!
But the war on drugs is not over yet either and the DR is a great trans-shipment point and becoming moreso every day.........
Keep watching......
 

DRtechie

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Word on the street is that Army forces in Puerto Rico are being relocated to Ft. Hood, Texas. US Troops on the Haiti-Dominican border has more to do with the Armys Souther Command looking to maintain a presence in the area than with any instability in the DR. And Swede, they do include MPs...Army reserve has already started asking for volunteers.