Problems with Vaccines.. past and present.

windeguy

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Good morning. The vaccine news continues to be better than many people realize.​
A nurse prepared a dose of the Moderna vaccine in the Bronx on Saturday.James Estrin/The New York Times​

Infections aren’t what matters​

The news about the vaccines continues to be excellent — and the public discussion of it continues to be more negative than the facts warrant.​
Here’s the key fact: All five vaccines with public results have eliminated Covid-19 deaths. They have also drastically reduced hospitalizations. “They’re all good trial results,” Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “It’s great news.”​
Many people are instead focusing on relatively minor differences among the vaccine results and wrongly assuming that those differences mean that some vaccines won’t prevent serious illnesses. It’s still too early to be sure, because a few of the vaccine makers have released only a small amount of data. But the available data is very encouraging — including about the vaccines’ effect on the virus’s variants.​
“The vaccines are poised to deliver what people so desperately want: an end, however protracted, to this pandemic,” as Julia Marcus of Harvard Medical School recently wrote in The Atlantic.​
Why is the public understanding more negative than it should be? Much of the confusion revolves around the meaning of the word “effective.”​

What do we care about?​

In the official language of research science, a vaccine is typically considered effective only if it prevents people from coming down with any degree of illness. With a disease that’s always or usually horrible, like ebola or rabies, that definition is also the most meaningful one.​
But it’s not the most meaningful definition for most coronavirus infections.​
Whether you realize it or not, you have almost certainly had a coronavirus. Coronaviruses have been circulating for decades if not centuries, and they’re often mild. The common cold can be a coronavirus. The world isn’t going to eliminate coronaviruses — or this particular one, known as SARS-CoV-2 — anytime soon.​
Yet we don’t need to eliminate it for life to return to normal. We instead need to downgrade it from a deadly pandemic to a normal virus. Once that happens, adults can go back to work, and children back to school. Grandparents can nuzzle their grandchildren, and you can meet your friends at a restaurant.​
As Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me this weekend: “I don’t actually care about infections. I care about hospitalizations and deaths and long-term complications.”​

The data​

By those measures, all five of the vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — look extremely good. Of the roughly 75,000 people who have received one of the five in a research trial, not a single person has died from Covid, and only a few people appear to have been hospitalized. None have remained hospitalized 28 days after receiving a shot.​
To put that in perspective, it helps to think about what Covid has done so far to a representative group of 75,000 American adults: It has killed roughly 150 of them and sent several hundred more to the hospital. The vaccines reduce those numbers to zero and nearly zero, based on the research trials.​
Zero isn’t even the most relevant benchmark. A typical U.S. flu season kills between five and 15 out of every 75,000 adults and hospitalizes more than 100 of them.​
I assume you would agree that any vaccine that transforms Covid into something much milder than a typical flu deserves to be called effective. But that is not the scientific definition. When you read that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was 66 percent effective or that the Novavax vaccine was 89 percent effective, those numbers are referring to the prevention of all illness. They count mild symptoms as a failure.​
“In terms of the severe outcomes, which is what we really care about, the news is fantastic,” Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, said.​

The variants​

What about the highly contagious new virus variants that have emerged in Britain, Brazil and South Africa? The South African variant does appear to make the vaccines less effective at eliminating infections.​
Fortunately, there is no evidence yet that it increases deaths among vaccinated people. Two of the five vaccines — from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax — have reported some results from South Africa, and none of the people there who received a vaccine died of Covid. “People are still not getting serious illness. They’re still not dying,” Dr. Rebecca Wurtz of the University of Minnesota School of Public Health told me.​
The most likely reason, epidemiologists say, is that the vaccines still provide considerable protection against the variant, albeit not quite as much as against the original version. Some protection appears to be enough to turn this coronavirus into a fairly normal disease in the vast majority of cases.​
“This variant is clearly making it a little tougher to get the most vigorous response that you would want to have,” Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said. “But still, for severe disease, it’s looking really good.”​
A vaccination site in North Charleston, S.C.Cameron Pollack for The New York Times​

What would an expert do?​

The biggest caveat is the possibility that future data will be less heartening. Johnson & Johnson and Novavax, for example, have issued press releases about their data, but no independent group has yet released an analysis. It will also be important to see much more data about how the vaccines interact with the variants.​
But don’t confuse uncertainty with bad news. The available vaccine evidence is nearly as positive as it could conceivably be. And our overly negative interpretation of it is causing real problems.​
Some people worry that schools cannot reopen even after teachers are vaccinated. Others are left with the mistaken impression that only the two vaccines with the highest official effectiveness rates — from Moderna and Pfizer — are worth getting.​
In truth, so long as the data holds up, any of the five vaccines can save your life.​
Last week, Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University told my colleague Denise Grady about a conversation he had with other experts. During it, they imagined that a close relative had to choose between getting the Johnson & Johnson vaccine now or waiting three weeks to get the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine. “All of us said, ‘Get the one tomorrow,’” Schaffner said. “The virus is bad. You’re risking three more weeks of exposure as opposed to getting protection tomorrow.”​
 
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windeguy

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Post 141 above is from my daily NY Times email. Bottom line, all of the vaccines prevent death, not infection.That "CV19 passport" that requires you are vaccinated does not mean you are not contagious, you would need a CV19 test for active infection as well. For years to come.
 

Russell

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Unfortunately you need to subscribe to read the article.

I always asked myself if the nasal spray would work. I remember being in a classroom with 15 other people from all over the world a couple of years ago. One of them caught the flu and we were dropping like flies. I tried this stuff from Vicks called First Defence which is supposed to kill the virus in your nasal cavity before it enters your system. Whilst everyone else had a real dose of man-flu, all I got was a runny nose.
You know what?
I agree that a nasal spray with the chemical mix that deters an airborne infection should work.
I have been thinking about that same thing recently...in as much as there are probably natural anti-inflammatory chemicals that can keep the COVID-19 from settling into the sinus causing the Viral infection.
There is also no doubt in my mind that such a spray will be on the market, as a not prescribed treatment like many other products we can buy as over the counter .
Right now the big money is being spent on vaccines and masks. But, it will come.
The Apothecary Genes in me are starting to awaken ...
Great post, beeza ... adds hope to an otherwise bogged down topic.
 

Lobo Tropical

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It s better to have some protection, than none.

As an example the EU is now considering procuring vaccines from Russia and China.
We can only hope that as many people as possible get vaccinated by the end of this year, including funding for developing countries,
By the world community.

The problem is that science takes time to receive useful results from research.
Additional concern are mutants and efficacy of vaccines in this regard.
The trial group was about 22,000 adults over 2.5 months.


This interim analysis of the phase 3 trial of Gam-COVID-Vac showed 91·6% efficacy against COVID-19 and was well tolerated in a large cohort.

Between Sept 7 and Nov 24, 2020, 21 977 adults were eligible and randomly assigned to receive placebo (n=5476) or vaccine (n=16 501;


97 confirmed cases of COVID-19 (63 in the vaccine group and 34 in the placebo group) are not reflected in the analysis of the primary endpoint because they occurred fewer than 21 days after dose 1 (ie, before dose 2; table 2, figure 2). Estimated vaccine efficacy against confirmed COVID-19 occurring at any time after dose 1 was 73·1% (95% CI 63·7–80·1). Notably, in the vaccine group, most cases of COVID-19 occurred before dose 2
 

DonDimi

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All of these vaccines (pick a manufacturer) are in their trial stages. Whether or not people want admit it is a completely different story. The potential problems this "cure" could cause a perfectly healthy person are very real.
You nailed it Mate, just imagine a brand new med. technology is used for the very 1st time to make the very 1st Vaccine ...... "common cense said" WHAT ??? mass human experiment in progress o_O
 
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USA DOC

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Windy..talking to my friends back home in the USA.. the type of vaccine is not the problem... getting the vaccine is the problem. totally a mess......
 

zoomzx11

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Back on topic - somewhat.

Larry King is the latest victim of Covid.

Not to be picky

King was 87 at death.
Health history was lung cancer (smoker) prostate cancer, heart disease, and a stroke in 2019.
Wife number 8 has denied Larry died of Covid.
Media sources listed cod as sepsis, some saying complications of Covid.
The guy was a walking example of what wealth and the best medical care money can buy is able to do for a person's longevity.

Not sure why but there seems to be a negative attitude towards folks being listed as Covid fatalities, maybe the tag is they were careless.
 
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CristoRey

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Not to be picky

Not sure why but there seems to be a negative attitude towards folks being listed as Covid fatalities, maybe the tag is they were careless.
I've yet to hear of anyone having a negative attitude about people dying from Covid but there is good reason for people to question
the authorities when it comes to the number of people who's deaths have been classified as a Covid fatality.

1612307986074.png
 

Lobo Tropical

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You nailed it Mate, just imagine a brand new med. technology is used for the very 1st time to make the very 1st Vaccine ...... "common cense said" WHAT ??? mass human experiment in progress o_O

The less virus there is, the less chances that it mutates.
The less virus out there, the less chance of people getting infected.

Do you expect no trials, scientific research on vaccines.

Governments, medical research and medical services don't have the luxury to pretend and not act on what is happening globally.

What are your recommendations to nail it mate?
 

zoomzx11

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I agree and at the same time those who are eager to get vaccinated
need to stop trying to belittle those who are not.

Judging by behavior I believe most Dominicans are no longer afraid of the virus and also many don't want to take the vaccine.
Now it's "judging by behavior" to get to "I believe"?
Ok, I will bite. What behaviors are you judging, bob?
How about judging by the recommendations of the best available science?

Being "afraid" of the virus is plain dumb and being "no longer afraid" is dumber if that is even possible.
And what " behaviors" are you judging to come up with "many don't want to take the vaccine"?

The usual def of many is " a large number of".
So how many are you talking about here?
You are not repeating chisme here, eh, bob?

There will always be fools in the world and they will behave foolishly.
No value in giving the behavior of fools a forum.

Since we are believing here I believe that the new government listens to the best available science on Covid and if significant numbers of Dominicans refuse the vaccines the government will tie vaccination to popular and desirable activities.
When and if that happens the "many" will fold like a house of cards and get in line.
 
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Lobo Tropical

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Windy..talking to my friends back home in the USA.. the type of vaccine is not the problem... getting the vaccine is the problem. totally a mess......

Add to that the rest of the world,

Hopes are somewhere between June and the end of the year in developed countries to have large quantities of citizens inoculated.
If two inoculations are needed, people still can get infected in-between.
Not to mention the unknown developments of mutants.

The situation is far from being under control, or improving.
 
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Lobo Tropical

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"I've yet to hear of anyone having a negative attitude about people dying from Covid but there is good reason for people to question
the authorities when it comes to the number of people who's deaths have been classified as a Covid fatality."End Quote

If you look at the situation at hospitals since the outbreak last year to the current situation worldwide,
It should be clear to you that something out of the ordinary is happening - Covid 19.

People with pre-existing conditions are obviously more susceptible.
Many without pre-existing conditions have also died.

It is obvious that more people than normally are dying.

It's fine that you have the luxury to question percentages, indicating that in your view there is a lot of hype on behalf of governments or medical authorities.
 
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zoomzx11

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I've yet to hear of anyone having a negative attitude about people dying from Covid but there is good reason for people to question
the authorities when it comes to the number of people who's deaths have been clas

Add to that the rest of the world,

Hopes are somewhere between June and the end of the year in developed countries to have large quantities of citizens inoculated.
If two inoculations are needed, people still can get infected in-between.
Not to mention the unknown developments of mutants.

The situation is far from being under control, or improving.
So far the wealthy countries have gobbled up the available vaccine supplies.
 
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zoomzx11

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"I've yet to hear of anyone having a negative attitude about people dying from Covid but there is good reason for people to question
the authorities when it comes to the number of people who's deaths have been classified as a Covid fatality."End Quote

You do not hear it, have to read it and the source is our friend bob of Jarabocoa.
How about a source from your bit of oft-repeated and totally debunked claim of doctors lying when they sign death certificates?
Repeating a thing does not add to its validity.
Ah, but you do what you do best, leading off-topic.
What does this have what to do with vaccine problems?
 
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CristoRey

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"I've yet to hear of anyone having a negative attitude about people dying from Covid but there is good reason for people to question
the authorities when it comes to the number of people who's deaths have been classified as a Covid fatality."End Quote

You do not hear it, have to read it and the source is our friend bob of Jarabocoa.
How about a source from your bit of oft-repeated and totally debunked claim of doctors lying when they sign death certificates?
Repeating a thing does not add to its validity.
Ah, but you do what you do best, leading off-topic.
What does this have what to do with vaccine problems?
And there you go again switching up people's words to fit your narrative.
Lots of anti vaccine folks running round down here in the DR. It's definitely
place guys like you should stay far away from as we would all really hate to
see you come down here, catch the virus and drop dead.
 
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CristoRey

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Since we are believing here I believe that the new government listens to the best available science on Covid and if significant numbers of Dominicans refuse the vaccines the government will tie vaccination to popular and desirable activities.
When and if that happens the "many" will fold like a house of cards and get in line.
Which activities did you have in mind Dr. Zoom?