The DR and the Recession of 2008

[PICHARDO]

https://www.medica.de/vis-content/event-medcom2018.MEDICA/exh-medcom2018.2579441/MEDICA-2018-NATIONAL-FREE-ZONES-COUNCIL-OF-THE-DOMINICAN-REPUBLIC-Paper-medcom2018.2579441-Q9KZ0CxITQiOYgiqaHD5GQ.pdf


Check this out for DR medical devices

And keep in mind is over 4 years old

 

[playacaribe2]

It has already taken place, you just haven’t paid attention since 2008...

The demand market to tilt their supply chains away from China for the long term, as its taking place now

A continued expansion of medical devices field, from simple tools as before, to highly specialized and leading medical tech as of lately. Many world companies in the field are turning their supply chains to the US market away from China and into manufacturing plants in the DR.

Unless you been living in the ISS for the past several months, you would had noticed the effects of two major issues that afflicted the DR’s tourism market: A bad press campaign on the media aftermath and a little thing they call the coronavirus...

Over leverage? Are you kidding? The manufacturers are the ones doing the investments, not the DR!

Again, based on your quote above, you haven’t paid attention to the expansion of global manufacturer’s at the DR’s free trade zones.

Under and after a major crisis, it’s when a country’s potential gives way to opportunities to come to the front.
The DR has for long been a safe supply market for the US. The Chinese miracle came and disrupted supply chains after US firms accepted the Chinese rules and are now paying the price for it.

Clearly, the DR is best positioned to break the large inventories at cut throat prices from China, advent the new political stance in the US for it. The DR has been proven to be an stable supply chain and more so when national security is now intermixed with it. Well connected by Air and marine transport, and an overall cheap labor.

It has surpass them as a matter of fact. Performed the best sustained GDP growth ratios in the region for years and still untapped potential.

I really do believe that you believe this non-sense.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why though.

The DR was at the doorstep of the lender of last resort......the IMF and receiving aid.......from approximately 2003 until 2013. And since that time (2013), the country has expanded its balance sheet beyond safety parameters for an emerging market country. Even the IMF has warned the government of the impending risks of their current debt position..........and now we have the global health crisis which is morphing into a global financial crisis.

And make no mistake, the financial scars on third world emerging market countries will be far greater. The only question left to answer is when again will the DR will be requesting aid from the lender of last resort.

A 60:1 peso/dollar rate before the year is out............looks very doable.......if the crisis continues as some expect.

Respectfully,
playacaribe2

 

[PICHARDO]

Ok
This is your final stand and statement for the DR economy?

I’ll prove you wrong, but this time we won’t need a decade of proven track.
The next months till the end of the year should suffice 100%

I guess you hadn’t paid any attention to each time the DR has placed sovereign bonds in the market?
Each time we pay less in risks interests and the demand outstripped the supply...

IMF??? You really should keep up with the times!

 

[cobraboy]

Ok
This is your final stand and statement for the DR economy?

I’ll prove you wrong, but this time we won’t need a decade of proven track.
The next months till the end of the year should suffice 100%

I guess you hadn’t paid any attention to each time the DR has placed sovereign bonds in the market?
Each time we pay less in risks interests and the demand outstripped the supply...

IMF??? You really should keep up with the times!

Pichardo, the demand reflects an ability to pay based on a growing economy.

That dynamic does not exist today.

 

[playacaribe2]

Ok
This is your final stand and statement for the DR economy?

I’ll prove you wrong, but this time we won’t need a decade of proven track.
The next months till the end of the year should suffice 100%

I guess you hadn’t paid any attention to each time the DR has placed sovereign bonds in the market?
Each time we pay less in risks interests and the demand outstripped the supply...

IMF??? You really should keep up with the times!

I beg to differ. Not only did I pay attention...........so did the IMF.......who sent a nicely wording warning......as they always do.......that your debt levels pre-coronavirus were in warning territory.

And now what will you do...........place more debt?

I will make it clear. The DR has not ever had a real economic plan. You were blessed with remittances from abroad and a lot of private money being invested in places like Punta Cana. For the moment, your three legged economic stool has two legs wobbling.........and wobbling badly.

Yes......this IMF;

https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin...1=260&endDate=2099-12-31&finposition_flag=YES

And their kindly worded observation;

"The fiscal position is under moderate sustainability and affordability pressures; key structural bottlenecks have not been addressed; and social outcomes can be further strengthened. Upcoming elections in 2020 are likely to dominate the near-term policy landscape."

You will prove me wrong?

"The next months till the end of the year should suffice 100%." I cannot wait for you to do so.

Will the peso be 40:1 or 60:1 at the end of the year?

Will Walmart finally buyout Grupo Ramos (La Sirena)?.......remember that call........or your countless others that did not materialize.

The country is plagued by never ending rampant corruption...........and can never succeed in the manner you would like to see, until that issue is dealt with. Period........end of story.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[PICHARDO]

Like I said in a few months we’ll revisit and see who was correct or not.
It’s that simple!

 

[PICHARDO]

Pichardo, the demand reflects an ability to pay based on a growing economy.

That dynamic does not exist today.

So... Are you saying that if the DR would place new bonds there will be no demand for them?

We are no longer in the 18th or 19th century. We are facing a pandemic which causes rapid short term stress on any health care system, but this is something we as people will learn quick to accept, because there’s little to change that other than shutting down the world until the last infected is identified and isolated. Will not happen, can’t happen.

The reality is what it is. It’s now at the point of acceptance and moving on.
Will things change? Of course! But not as many think on the proportion of a halted world.

The rate of infections are dropping in those countries which saw the worst of it and shut down. But the reality is that those identified already have been put out infectious circulation.

Back to normal will not means back to the old normal, but a new one.

We are two or three months away from effective therapeutics. Meanwhile, we will carry on.

China is the perfect barometer to see real-time the post crisis economy.
Needless to say, there will be shortages in all sectors. What’s in stock now, no matter how frivolous might seem, will be quickly out of stock soon after re-opening.

The raw material supply chain will be the one with the crunch first.

The crisis has eliminated most of our extra expending. Even our everyday needs have seen a cut, since we buy what we can find and not exactly what we wish we could.

This is not the first time the DR has faced a national crisis.

 

[playacaribe2]

Like I said in a few months we’ll revisit and see who was correct or not.
It’s that simple!

I will take 60:1 then and you can have 40:1. We can check back in a few months.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[PICHARDO]

...
Will Walmart finally buyout Grupo Ramos (La Sirena)?.......remember that call........or your countless others that did not materialize.
...
Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

You are selective of what you read, but missed a lot of follow up on that.

I did post how both Home Depot and Walmart came with a sell or we come into your market “take it or leave it” offer, the answer was clear as both DR businesses went to expand rapidly across all the sizable market regions in the country. That was their answer which I posted in the thread as well.

You read the icing but not the cake...

In the following 14 months La Sirena, Bellon, Jumbo and other DR retailers, expanded their coverage quickly all around the country. Go back and read on the thread...

 

[johne]

I will take 60:1 then and you can have 40:1. We can check back in a few months.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

LOL. If so sure, why the spread? At least even odds?Why not?

 

[playacaribe2]

LOL. If so sure, why the spread? At least even odds?Why not?

Good question. Perhaps Pichardo is in a confident mood lol.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[USA DOC]

Like I said in a few months we’ll revisit and see who was correct or not.
It’s that simple!

..In a few months?

 

[PICHARDO]

I will take 60:1 then and you can have 40:1. We can check back in a few months.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

It seems to me you are backing my point rather than yours!

When a country’s currency devalues vs the strong foreign demand market currency, exports soars and value over volume increases. The fact that you can easily check the artificial devaluation of the DR peso vs the Dollar via not only the Mac-Index but three other currencies with equal demand market’s dependence, you can see how the DR easily keeps inflation within check year after year. There’s no shocks, nor 1980’s type new zillionaires as a result.

Just take a look at PPP for the DR to get the picture. It’s clear as water.

Now, can you imagine the change if the DR became really competitive?

The reason the DR started devaluations on the Pesos, was to gain market share for our poorly competitive products(btw at the start of it mostly sugar, agricultural products, tobacco and some mined goods) which later became the only way for each passing administration to plug the lack of industrial development and fiscal deficits.

 

[PICHARDO]

..In a few months?

Dec 31 2020

 

[playacaribe2]

[

QUOTE=PICHARDO;2020926]You are selective of what you read, but missed a lot of follow up on that.

I did post how both Home Depot and Walmart came with a sell or we come into your market “take it or leave it” offer, the answer was clear as both DR businesses went to expand rapidly across all the sizable market regions in the country. That was their answer which I posted in the thread as well.

Yes you did.....and it did not happen. Just like all those wired classrooms with laptops in every classroom and on and on.

As to selective, you gave us all such a smorgasbord of things that never happened.....there is no need to be selective. Your public relations/marketing studies were interesting to read......but lacked credibility for those that know the country.

As I said, I truly believe, that you believe the stuff you posted......but then reality.......got in the way of most of it


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[playacaribe2]

It seems to me you are backing my point rather than yours!

When a country’s currency devalues vs the strong foreign demand market currency, exports soars and value over volume increases. The fact that you can easily check the artificial devaluation of the DR peso vs the Dollar via not only the Mac-Index but three other currencies with equal demand market’s dependence, you can see how the DR easily keeps inflation within check year after year. There’s no shocks, nor 1980’s type new zillionaires as a result.

Just take a look at PPP for the DR to get the picture. It’s clear as water.

Now, can you imagine the change if the DR became really competitive?

The reason the DR started devaluations on the Pesos, was to gain market share for our poorly competitive products(btw at the start of it mostly sugar, agricultural products, tobacco and some mined goods) which later became the only way for each passing administration to plug the lack of industrial development and fiscal deficits.

How much will the tourism hit shave off of GDP?............and how do you plan to make up for it by December 31, 2020?

Ditto remittances?

You do not export enough goods to have a weak peso provide any serious impact to the economy.

Answer is more debt. The 2020 budget is busted. Where will you go........the capital markets, the IMF (hint).

I wish the reality were different. My wife's tio employs 600 people countrywide.........and is more than a bit nervous as to what he is hearing from the powers that be about the economy going forward.

But I love your optimism.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[PICHARDO]

Yes you did.....and it did not happen. Just like all those wired classrooms with laptops in every classroom and on and on.

As to selective, you gave us all such a smorgasbord of things that never happened.....there is no need to be selective. Your public relations/marketing studies were interesting to read......but lacked credibility for those that know the country.

As I said, I truly believe, that you believe the stuff you posted......but then reality.......got in the way of most of it


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

Hmmm? Are you confused? First you said I did do it and then interject the laptops for students never happened? ( never said in laptops in every classroom but for all students)

I see that you are truly missing a lot about the DR since last year...

Beat cops to be fitted with a system they can use to scan and check for a person’s info right on their cell units(tested and underway)

Smart guns (tested in a pilot) implementation was rejected by the Danilo administration based on their insistence in favor of an outright limitation and later ban for handguns policy(which is still in the chambers).

Which others you need me to address?

Just like most other countries, policies and priorities change with new administrations. DR is not immune to that.

 

[PICHARDO]

How much will the tourism hit shave off of GDP............and how do you plan to make up for it by December 31, 2020.

Ditto remittances.

You do not export enough goods to have a weak peso provide any serious impact to the economy.

Answer is more debt. The 2020 budget is busted. Where will you go........the capital markets, the IMF (hint).

I wish the reality were different. My wife's tio employs 600 people countrywide.........and is more than a bit nervous as to what he is hearing from the powers that be about the economy going forward.

But I love your optimism.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

Like I said, in the next few months you’ll be able to see how confident I’m and why in these remarks I made on the issue.

The DR already has contacted the company that’s manufacturing the almost instant Covid-19 detection tests. Also temperature monitoring of all travelers to be introduced at deplaning along a pre-boarding at origin cleared certification for each passenger.

The DR will introduce strict controls in all border check points to avoid new focus of infections from emerging.

There will also be new guidelines for the industry at large on how to proceed with daily checks for staff as well.

A new sanitation program will be made mandatory in all hospitality oriented businesses.

The DR will first finish with the local infections and then move along with reopening the tourism industry for business.

The air carriers will also adopt new measures to remove the chance of mass infections in their operations. Each country will adopt a set of measures based on an international minimum standard.

Like I said, first deal with the infections that have been identified and any potential outliers.

 

[playacaribe2]

Dec 31 2020

So what will specifically take place to the DR economy by December 31, 2020?

You have talked in generalities here...............give everyone a metric to measure?

I mean it has been ten years since you told us that construction began on the bullet train from SD to Santiago ....or that even motoconcho guys will have hand held debit scanners for riders.........and the economy will have no paper peso..........property owners will be paid by the government as the tenants submit payment directly to them (tax collection)..............or the electricity will be privatized..........ditto the post office............or pesos oro, your predictions in this thread alone are an optimist's dream..............but not anywhere near reality.

Let me know if you need more of your predictions................as the list of what did not occur over the last ten years is long...........very long.

But again, I do love your optimism.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[PICHARDO]

So what will specifically take place to the DR economy by December 31, 2020?

You have talked in generalities here...............give everyone a metric to measure?

I stated that we will see by that date if I was right or wrong (same as others here) in which way the DR economy will had performed on the issues debated. I stated that we had not to wait long but that short time to see it proven.

I mean it has been ten years since you told us that construction began on the bullet train from SD to Santiago ....

The Santiago- SD speed train was in fact being under development at that point, with ground works already started with ground surveys and land approximation/clearing carried out. The Medina administration cancelled the contracts and decided that a “Meteo-cable” was cheaper and better (not).

or that even motoconcho guys will have hand held debit scanners for riders.........

Believe it or not, plenty of providers are indeed employing cell phone apps to get paid and tipped nowadays, you just haven’t taken a ride with one that does yet...

and the economy will have no paper peso..........

It takes time to move 100% of the population to electronic means, but pretty much all gov institutions now have implemented such electronic means, with the private sector in tow.
Again you are out of touch with even how small colmados are utilizing their card readers unlike before, it has become standard in most businesses.

property owners will be paid by the government as the tenants submit payment directly to them (tax collection)..............

It already is happening where any tenant or landlord that brings a dispute to bear, that their cases are handled like this.
It’s a matter of legislation that still has not been addressed by the high court pending in the calendar. But it will be...
Things do take time after all in the DR and I clearly stated so when I posted these. As a matter of fact. Read it...

or the electricity will be privatized..........ditto the post office...........

The Medina administration shelved all these solutions as they wanted to cash in with the new public funded projects as they did and today we see the why. You can take the horse to the water but...

.or pesos oro, your predictions in this thread alone are an optimist's dream..............but not anywhere near reality.

We are still on the Pesos Oro standard in the DR, unless you can post a new monetary law that revoked or supersedes the actual one? If you can be so nice and post it here as I did with the existing monetary law?

These are not predictions but actual long devised plans from the now split party and administrations. It was agreed to continue these projects before hand (including all Metro extensions) with all other parties, but little did they know they would be violated and vacated by their own party.

Let me know if you need more of your predictions................as the list of what did not occur over the last ten years is long...........very long.

Yes you can post them all, and I will give you a reason for where or at what point they are as of now.

But again, I do love your optimism.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

The new generation will always outshine the past one.
We have lots to be optimistic about for our future!

This administration has done some good deeds and some terrible ones, but it’s never too late to retake the correct road and plans as projected. Just a delay more on our long path.