Recession of 2008 and impact on the DR

Jan 3, 2003
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December coming...
Alright Pichardo is back. Give us some good news. Tell us how we who constitute the doom and gloom crowd are wrong. Say it ain't so Joe.

Spin us a yarn. We all just want to feel good. Don't leave us hanging. Give us good news. The Good News according to Pichardo

The Gospel of Pichardo
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,269
861
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
Alright Pichardo is back. Give us some good news. Tell us how we who constitute the doom and gloom crowd are wrong. Say it ain't so Joe.

Spin us a yarn. We all just want to feel good. Don't leave us hanging. Give us good news. The Good News according to Pichardo

The Gospel of Pichardo


Let December come!
You’ll have more than answers then. You’ll have facts, as the facts for the last decade alone...
Those who don’t learn from history?

Here we have a new administration willing to use the true DR potential and clean house...

Change is slow in DR but sure to come.
Just finished renewing passport without setting foot on el huacalito...

Btw: Anybody knows what’s going on with the VPNs here in DR. Mine keeps getting all mixed results, mostly ghosting my DR IP address.

I think Claro is playing foul with some VPN service providers. Could be the want to pitch theirs that badly???
 
Jan 3, 2003
1,310
175
63
Let December come!
You’ll have more than answers then. You’ll have facts, as the facts for the last decade alone...
Those who don’t learn from history?

Here we have a new administration willing to use the true DR potential and clean house...

Change is slow in DR but sure to come.
Just finished renewing passport without setting foot on el huacalito...

Btw: Anybody knows what’s going on with the VPNs here in DR. Mine keeps getting all mixed results, mostly ghosting my DR IP address.

I think Claro is playing foul with some VPN service providers. Could be the want to pitch theirs that badly???
What is the new ADMIN going to do about millions of Haitians living in the DR? If the PLD is setting precedent, then nothing. If folks like you keep blowing the horn of economic prosperity which I don't believe nothing can be done. If they are expelled, then it will be viewed as an arbitrary action against an impoverished African minority. If the truth is spoken on how the DR is economically unable to support another nation as Haiti then the international community will not pounce on the DR. Yet that would obviously risk the rating of the nation in terms of bonds and such. Your types are in a conundrum.
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,269
861
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
What is the new ADMIN going to do about millions of Haitians living in the DR? If the PLD is setting precedent, then nothing. If folks like you keep blowing the horn of economic prosperity which I don't believe nothing can be done. If they are expelled, then it will be viewed as an arbitrary action against an impoverished African minority. If the truth is spoken on how the DR is economically unable to support another nation as Haiti then the international community will not pounce on the DR. Yet that would obviously risk the rating of the nation in terms of bonds and such. Your types are in a conundrum.

So far, as I see it, this administration has been Hands-on when it comes to the Haitian issue here.

The president clearly remarked that Haitians will only be allowed with the proper documents onhand. Meaning work permit or visa issued by Immigration alone.

This precludes illegals 100% and to the point.
Given how we digitized pretty much the whole database with who’s who in the DR, it won’t be much of a problem to carry it out.

He clearly stated that the situation had to change drastically, compared to the past and immediate present.

He has Trump and the US ambassador’s go ahead for this. At least until the end of the year, so we are bound to see fast action to that end in our border and interior.

I also believe he will move to remove the penalty fee for tourists and replace it with a special long term non-immigrant tourist visa.

Venezuelans will also see some relaxation on rules to stay and work legally in the DR, until the situation changes in Venezuela.
 

NanSanPedro

Nickel with tin plating
Apr 12, 2019
3,425
2,801
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So far, as I see it, this administration has been Hands-on when it comes to the Haitian issue here.

The president clearly remarked that Haitians will only be allowed with the proper documents onhand. Meaning work permit or visa issued by Immigration alone.

This precludes illegals 100% and to the point.
Given how we digitized pretty much the whole database with who’s who in the DR, it won’t be much of a problem to carry it out.

He clearly stated that the situation had to change drastically, compared to the past and immediate present.

He has Trump and the US ambassador’s go ahead for this. At least until the end of the year, so we are bound to see fast action to that end in our border and interior.

I also believe he will move to remove the penalty fee for tourists and replace it with a special long term non-immigrant tourist visa.

Venezuelans will also see some relaxation on rules to stay and work legally in the DR, until the situation changes in Venezuela.

How difficult are the work permits and visas for Haitians now?
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,269
861
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
Very, because 70% lacks any official Haitian documents of identity.
Others don’t qualify under the work permit contract requirements. As they are solely seeking to stay here.
The administration says it’s seeking to provide the permits to contracted employees only, which don’t affect the national pool of workers able to fill the same spot.

Or so it goes...
 
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PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,269
861
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
Abinader is seeking to raise wages, so the nationals here see these jobs as worth their salt.

Enabling private-public enterprises to that aim, with Infotep as the enabler for medium to high skills. But having those wages increased vía working together and not by pressure is the key.
 
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Jan 3, 2003
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Very, because 70% lacks any official Haitian documents of identity.
Others don’t qualify under the work permit contract requirements. As they are solely seeking to stay here.
The administration says it’s seeking to provide the permits to contracted employees only, which don’t affect the national pool of workers able to fill the same spot.

Or so it goes...
I hope you are right because I have dozens of videos showing the Haitians doing what no nation would allow. Gangs of Haitians violently protesting in front of police stations, attacking police stations demanding that their criminal gang members be released. Haitians dealing drugs openly on the streets of Santiago. Haitian gangs roaming the streets of Santiago battling one another as if they are in Haiti. Did you see the video of Abel, Santiago's Mayor, pushing out packs of Haitians, in parks throwing dice and gambling? Parks meant for families and children.

The wicked anti-Dominican Witch Beliel with her constant demonizing of the DR has garnered support worldwide. She has played the vicitm card well. While gaining traction in the international community to legitimize the Haitian takeover of the DR, she has grown in strength and popularity while our people suffer deprivations and hunger. It's bad Pichardo. I'm lucky not to be there but I am in constant contact with Trujillistas and other Far Right Wing Dominican groups who have video evidence of what I am telling you. Also Lozano another PRO Haiti Dominican at the helm of Migration is not concerned with what harms the people.

The burning down of the Dominican flag at the border on the Dominican side by Haitian Security Forces. Where is the Army to defend our sovereignty? Are the Dominican authorities so in fear of Europe and its courts that they will not rise up and defend the nation?? Video documentation of hundreds of Haitians crossing the border as if they are crossing any no name street in their country. I feel for all my people from the Cibao region and the Cordilleras who can do nothing but see their country being taken away from them one Haitian at a time.
 
Jan 3, 2003
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Abinader is seeking to raise wages, so the nationals here see these jobs as worth their salt.

I disagree completely.

There are many Dominicans who will do the jobs that Haitians do at the low wages Haitians accept. In a country of 10 million plus, I guarantee you there are at least 1 million Dominicans who are unable to find work at any price and are borderline hungry practically starving by our alimentary standards and would do the job Haitians do.

We know of some families in the Cordillera areas who we personally help out on a monthly basis. They are victims of the aforementioned.

Since they, the Haitians, are occupying that workspace enabled by the wage myth propagated by folks like yourself, hungry able bodied Dominicans are unable to work and feed their families.
 

bienamor

Kansas redneck an proud of it
Apr 23, 2004
5,034
446
83
I disagree completely.

There are many Dominicans who will do the jobs that Haitians do at the low wages Haitians accept. In a country of 10 million plus, I guarantee you there are at least 1 million Dominicans who are unable to find work at any price and are borderline hungry practically starving by our alimentary standards and would do the job Haitians do.

We know of some families in the Cordillera areas who we personally help out on a monthly basis. They are victims of the aforementioned.

Since they, the Haitians, are occupying that workspace enabled by the wage myth propagated by folks like yourself, hungry able bodied Dominicans are unable to work and feed their families.
That sounds like a problem within the dominican hiring community not the haitians. They might not be able to screw over the nationals as they would be more likely to go the employees court whereas the haitians can't or won't. You know damn well construction an farming don't follow the 80 /20 percent law.
 
Jan 3, 2003
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That sounds like a problem within the dominican hiring community not the haitians. They might not be able to screw over the nationals as they would be more likely to go the employees court whereas the haitians can't or won't. You know damn well construction an farming don't follow the 80 /20 percent law.
Agreed!! But the increase in the Haitian population represents an existential threat to Dominican sovereignty and culture and the people. They have annihilated their country economically and ecologically and will do the same to the DR. An impoverished country such as the DR can not support a much more impoverished nation as Haiti.
 
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bienamor

Kansas redneck an proud of it
Apr 23, 2004
5,034
446
83
Agreed!! But the increase in the Haitian population represents an existential threat to Dominican sovereignty and culture and the people. They have annihilated their country economically and ecologically and will do the same to the DR. An impoverished country such as the DR can not support a much more impoverished nation as Haiti.
/
Again the same problem as anywhere else. If you inforce the 80/20 rule there are not enough jobs for the immigrants an therefore no reason to migrate. This is a problem caused by the companies/private entities and the government! Usually the largest culprit is the one incharge of enforcing the law.

Agreed the DR does not have the resources to support Haiti. Therefore the reason to enforce the 80/20
 
Jan 3, 2003
1,310
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/
Again the same problem as anywhere else. If you inforce the 80/20 rule there are not enough jobs for the immigrants an therefore no reason to migrate. This is a problem caused by the companies/private entities and the government! Usually the largest culprit is the one incharge of enforcing the law.

Agreed the DR does not have the resources to support Haiti. Therefore the reason to enforce the 80/20
LOL!! The DR doesn't even have the resources to support itself. Yet, if each subsequent Dominican government continues preaching the gospel of prosperity, the international community will force the DR to keep Haiti afloat. The ones left to suffer the consequences of this institutional misdirection wil be the Dominican poor themselves who number in the millions.

How can an 80/20 rule be enforced that will pass muster with the international community who holds the purse strings over the DR?
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,730
950
113
December coming...
December is here......and the economy is worse..............much worse....................the problems are being masked by massive debt restructuring and new borrowings...............but I await your spin;

https://dominicantoday.com/dr/economy/2020/12/18/dominican-public-debt-could-soar-to-68-1-of-gdp/

50% is considered the top range of the safe zone for emerging market economies.

Without a resurgence in tourism, the situation will be more loans and debt.

My observation stands as before............do not send your money to die (inflation/devaluation) by investing in peso certificates.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,269
861
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
Hhhhhhhhh

Good try!
But no!

Economy is chugging along just fine and this is a worldwide effect.

All players got handed the same hands to play. DR is doing rather well with the hand we got.

Each day in and out supermarkets are FULL. Whatever business is open is doing better than half the economies around the world.

I just visited today at Juguetón to buy some presents for niece and nephews (as it happened today was the day from the past few weeks I saw a chance of it being less full of shoppers) and still was a line to even browse the shelves. A line to pay. A line to get them wrapped. It took me two hours for something that should had been less than 20 minutes any other time.

Tire shop couldn’t schedule me for a tire rotation and balancing until next week as best.

Armerías are stripped naked of stock.

Shipping containers are on a waiting list, because we are having more exports going out than imports coming in.

I went to shop for a new car and have to wait for the next month, because all the ones of that model got sold before they hit the showroom.

Go and see how much higher it’s now to book a hotel in Bávaro/Punta Cana, and how scarcely dates available turn up.

The only thing holding this economy back is the curfews and nothing.

Debt restructuring just saved millions of dollars on interest to the DR just days ago, with more of that to come.

I think we are doing phenomenal as it is and will do much better come the removal of curfews.
 

william webster

Platinum
Jan 16, 2009
26,942
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I have been saying this....
We have more residential & commercial construction going on in my area than I have ever seen

Most have adjusted their life to a shorter day..... and many businesses are thriving
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,730
950
113
Hhhhhhhhh

Good try!
But no!

Economy is chugging along just fine and this is a worldwide effect.

All players got handed the same hands to play. DR is doing rather well with the hand we got.
The DR is chugging along with an increased boat anchor around its neck called debt. 3.8 billion of additional debt it cannot afford.........with more to come.

Each day in and out supermarkets are FULL. Whatever business is open is doing better than half the economies around the world.
Its December in the DR..........absolutely nothing new here. Same thing occurs every December in spite of the overall economy.

I just visited today at Juguetón to buy some presents for niece and nephews (as it happened today was the day from the past few weeks I saw a chance of it being less full of shoppers) and still was a line to even browse the shelves. A line to pay. A line to get them wrapped. It took me two hours for something that should had been less than 20 minutes any other time.
See my response above. And adding, the inefficiencies in the stores in the DR that occur year round are only exacerbated during the holiday period.

Tire shop couldn’t schedule me for a tire rotation and balancing until next week as best.
See my response above.

Armerías are stripped naked of stock.
That is mostly a supply shortage problem............not necessarily a demand one.

Shipping containers are on a waiting list, because we are having more exports going out than imports coming in.
See my response above. There is a worldwide supply shortage of containers..................your export numbers are down..............not up.

I went to shop for a new car and have to wait for the next month, because all the ones of that model got sold before they hit the showroom.
See my response above. There is a shortage of new car supply caused by the pandemic. There is currently only a 65 day supply of new cars. One year ago that number stood at 80.

New and used car imports to the DR have declined year over year.


Go and see how much higher it’s now to book a hotel in Bávaro/Punta Cana, and how scarcely dates available turn up.

I did.....................and there is no scarcity of rooms or dates............only hotel options, as many are still closed. You have too much supply and low demand. Those are not positives for the economy that is so heavily dependent on tourism.

Going further, Punta Cana the tourist engine, will likely conclude 2020 with under 1 million tourists. Comparing that number with 2019, you have 2.5 million less tourists this year than last.

Comparing that to your observations of 1 day or even 1 month as you outlined above is like comparing sales of water and batteries as a hurricane is about to strike. They are short duration events and inconsequential in a macro economic environment. But I do appreciate your tenacity and spin.


The only thing holding this economy back is the curfews and nothing.
If only.

Debt restructuring just saved millions of dollars on interest to the DR just days ago, with more of that to come.
On the contrary. Debt restructuring just cost you millions more in interest as you extended maturity dates albeit at a lower rate.

I think we are doing phenomenal as it is and will do much better come the removal of curfews.
And I believe that you really believe that.



Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 
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PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,269
861
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
I have been saying this....
We have more residential & commercial construction going on in my area than I have ever seen

Most have adjusted their life to a shorter day..... and many businesses are thriving

It’s clearly evident wherever you look...
I hate going food shopping these days. It’s madness.

Went to take the dog for his vet appointment, the vet moved across the street because his old office is being turned into a building. He said he ran out of space as clients more than doubled in the past year.

Most business owners have halved their expenses under the new curfew and are profiting even more as more people have taken to crunch the shopping hours in their visits.

Food delivery has gone triple their load and newer clients are hard to accommodate in some instances.

I get my tipiles, kipes and other Lebanese foods from Tu Quipe at Los Jardines, they now open earlier and do twice as much business than before.

Most fragile businesses are the ones folding tent. It was just a matter of time for them. Pandemic or not, their business model was doomed from the start. The pandemic and curfews just hastened the timing of that demise.

The big losers in this pandemic have been the bars, clubs, centers of entertainment and frills type.

A whole new cadre of businesses savvy people are being formed during these trial times.
Adaptation is the new norm. They learn to evolve and adapt quickly.

The average business in the DR is debt-Free. They can close their doors and hibernate.
Others are quickly adopting the emergence of the internet and apps to their benefit, unlike before.

Local artists Newfound tools of trade online, have given credit to a new profit lane they’d never were interested in exploring before.

If you want to know if your economy is healthy, just look at your banks. If banks are reporting increases in profit, then your economy is chugging along as it should.

Dominican households carry very little to moderate debt compared to other similarly economies. Savings have increased, rather than decrease during these trial times.

My extended family has zero debt, and any car financing is done only to increase the credit line and keep it healthy. They can all pay off those financing loans with ease.

A foreigner friend asked me recently why I keep buying apartments in the 3 million range, only to keep them as rentals. I explained to him it’s the safest and most profitable way to earn a minimum yearly $300,000 NOI profit return on each. That’s a cap rate of 10% and more.

I furnish the units and have an overseas rental pitch. Rentals are 1, 2 and 3 years with rent increases after year 1. I include a biweekly full house cleaner, which I employ and acts as a home inspector as well (for me).

In practice I made things easier for tenants, it includes the Netflix, cable, internet, water and electric setup under my control. Tenants receive a copy of the bill electronically, which is charged to their rental account monthly. In some instances I also provide any number of cell lines and wifi dongles to the tenants on request.

All my units are now rented for 3 year contracts. A US based company which carries lots of work here, contracted all the units for their rotating staff. The add-ons are left to each staff to pay for it.

So far I had only one incident with a tenant. A fire caused by a bbq on the balcony left unattended. Minor damages but lots of smoke all over. Ever since bbqs on the units are forbidden.

All units have a rental insurance policy and a 24 hour emergency maintenance 👨‍🔧 guy on call. And no, I’d never rented to locals.

There are no more 3 million range units in nice areas to be had. Now they are selling new units for how much they will be worth in 5 years, not their true present value.

As far as I understand, my extended family and circle of friends are not reporting any loses from any of their businesses here in the DR.

Many have taken the opportunity to expand and remodel their businesses, during the shortened hours.

I often buy empanadas de yuca from an older guy at Rafael Vidal, just on the end corner close to Lumijor. He’s much busier now and tells me he sells more than before on the compacted hours. People just flock to him and buy extra unlike before. He was saying this as he told his calling clients there were no more as I bought all the last stock he had.

If you go to the shopping plazas, you’ll notice the void from all those Little planned businesses with weak to no business plans behind them.

The ones hurting are the conformists, the ones too happy to just make enough to go gone without much hassle. Including the informal vendors that just seat all day by their trinkets as they await buyers.

Now they need to hustle for their livelihoods.

The new practice of all home served deliveries is here to stay for good. This is something people are quickly adapting to in all levels.

Tax revenues increased in the DR this year. I see a healthy economy rebounding well into 2021.
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
13,269
861
113
Santiago de Los 30 Caballeros
The DR is chugging along with an increased boat anchor around its neck called debt. 3.8 billion of additional debt it cannot afford.........with more to come.


Its December in the DR..........absolutely nothing new here. Same thing occurs every December in spite of the overall economy.


See my response above. And adding, the inefficiencies in the stores in the DR that occur year round are only exacerbated during the holiday period.


See my response above.


That is mostly a supply shortage problem............not necessarily a demand one.


See my response above. There is a worldwide supply shortage of containers..................your export numbers are down..............not up.


See my response above. There is a shortage of new car supply caused by the pandemic. There is currently only a 65 day supply of new cars. One year ago that number stood at 80.

New and used car imports to the DR have declined year over year.




I did.....................and there is no scarcity of rooms or dates............only hotel options, as many are still closed. You have too much supply and low demand. Those are not positives for the economy that is so heavily dependent on tourism.

Going further, Punta Cana the tourist engine, will likely conclude 2020 with under 1 million tourists. Comparing that number with 2019, you have 2.5 million less tourists this year than last.

Comparing that to your observations of 1 day or even 1 month as you outlined above is like comparing sales of water and batteries as a hurricane is about to strike. They are short duration events and inconsequential in a macro economic environment. But I do appreciate your tenacity and spin.



If only.


On the contrary. Debt restructuring just cost you millions more in interest as you extended maturity dates albeit at a lower rate.


And I believe that you really believe that.



Respectfully,
Playacaribe2


You are in your own dream boat...

Reality tells us otherwise.