short term earthquake prediction?

XanaduRanch

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Interesting Article ...

Conchman said:
In related material, I found this interesting reading ...
I appreciate the impression the author is imparting to his audience about the way the Earth's crust is composed.

As solid as the ground may seem beneath or feet, it's not. We're standing on the very thin, cold, skin of a boiling, bubbling caludron of extremely high temperature gases, and liquids that stretch all the way down to the planets core. Cook some thick spaghetti sauce on the stove and watch the bubbles flowing up and bursting. It's very much like that. But lucky for us much of it goes on many miles below us so we can't tell. But what happens when those pockets of gas, or liquid material rise and burst or even slowly infiltrate the crustal rocks above?

One would naturally assume that this would be a cause for earthquakes. Even the shear-stress models asr based on continental drift. What keeps those rocks drifting anyway? Currents in the mantle, of course. Same thing isn't it?

And as I have said previously there is much anecdotal, and much documented evidence showing changes in the composition of ground water to name just one example just prior to an earthquake event.

This should not be dismissed out of hand. The only problem I see is that the equipment someone like Dr. Shou, or anyone persuing his hypothesis, would need to make truly accurate predicitions or studies of the phenomena don't exist at this time.

Tom aka XR I had to stop driving my car. The tires got dizzy.
 

jsizemore

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Aug 6, 2003
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the future maybe now

Tom do we know that the equipment is not available? It may be that it is a matter of finding what causes the clouds. If that happens the equipment may be off the shelf technology. A Spectagrah is a spectagraph after all.
Please keep the info coming this is really interesting.
John
 

XanaduRanch

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jsizemore said:
Tom do we know that the equipment is not available? It may be that it is a matter of finding what causes the clouds. If that happens the equipment may be off the shelf technology. A Spectagrah is a Spectagraph after all. Please keep the info coming this is really interesting.
I knew someone would catch that. I should have clarified. I meant to say that it's not available to him not that it's not necessarily available. Too many other projects on my plate right now but I have been thinking, somewhere in the back of my head, about what things we might do to help. There needs to be a way to automate the process of inspecting all satellite photos all the time. And, each photo needs to be combined with wind profile maps at a minimum to be able, upon spotting a formation, backtrack a loop of images to help determine the originating point. Much more, but that'd be a start.

I really do find this a very promising area of study, and I too have had my scientific curiosity 'piqued' by what I've seen.

Tom aka XR Just when you finally make ends meet, they move the ends.
 

jsizemore

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Recomended reading

Anyone know of any recomeded reading I should be doing this weekend. I will have some serious surfing times saturday night.
BTW way this must really be a facinating subject none of us have gotten sarcastic once.
John
 

quaqualita

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XanaduRanch

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Dr. Shou on SciFi

Sorry I couldn't warn anybody, missed most of it myself. But I just caught the last five minutes of an "In Search Of ..." episode on the SciFi channel whose topic was predicting earthquakes. One of the featured predictors was in fact Dr. Shou.

I don't know where, when or if that particular episode will be repeated. But I will try and find out.

Tom aka XR Very funny, Scotty. Now beam down my damn clothes!
 

XanaduRanch

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As a Comparison ...

I ran across this article,Scientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within Five Months, written by KTVU-TV Channel 2 in San Francisco.

One of the criticisms here early on of the earthquake predictions of Dr. Shou was the possibility that the predicted area, time length, and magnitude was so broad as to make a positive outcome almost likely. I found that was not the case. Now contrast, for example, the prediction posted here earlier for the Dominican Republic, with this prediction by mainline seismologists.

"The team of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, predict that a quake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5." The alert issued also notes that the "zone is so seismically active that ... the chances of an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.4 occurring randomly in the area sometime before the Sept. 5 deadline is about 10 percent." The researchers base their predictions on a previous history of small quakes at a site, and if it meets their criteria they start a nine month "alarm" period.

Tweleve thousand square miles? Nine months? That makes Dr. Shou's predictions look like pinpoint accuracy.

Tom aka XR I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now.