Statistic analysis of COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic

jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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Hello, DR1 community, I am Juan Carlos Saladín, industrial engineer, quality director of the law firm Guzmán Ariza and data analyst. The president of the firm, Fabio Guzmán Ariza, told me about this forum and recommended me to publish my statistical analyzes to update the community.

Below, you will find the link to download the latest report with all the data published in the special bulletin of the Ministry of Public Health of the Dominican Republic, clic here.

I will follow up your reply about the analysis. I am at your service.

Best regards,

Juan Carlos Saladín Bonilla
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 
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jsaladin

Member
Apr 4, 2020
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Report # 14 Statistical Analysis 4/5/2020

Thank you very much for your messages.

Today I share the link to download today's report, click here.

Best regards,

Juan Carlos Saladín Bonilla
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza

Hello, DR1 community, I am Juan Carlos Saladín, industrial engineer, quality director of the law firm Guzmán Ariza and data analyst. The president of the firm, Fabio Guzmán Ariza, told me about this forum and recommended me to publish my statistical analyzes to update the community.

Below, you will find the link to download the latest report with all the data published in the special bulletin of the Ministry of Public Health of the Dominican Republic, clic here.

I will follow up your reply about the analysis. I am at your service.

Best regards,

Juan Carlos Saladín Bonilla
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 

joejamchicago

Member
Dec 29, 2008
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Thank you for this information. I realize that there are a few cases of Covid-19 in the Puerto Plata province. Do you know if so far there have been any cases in Sosua, El Batey, Charamicos, Sosua Abajo, or Cabarete? Thanks.
 

Africaida

Well-known member
Jun 19, 2009
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which means that entire document is skewed.
Not at all. The number of infections everywhere is based on the number of persons tested. You could say the same in the US for example if the test was available to asymptomatic persons.

The analysis presented is based on available data.

Very good presentation.
 
Last edited:

alexw

Well-known member
Sep 6, 2008
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NYC-SDQ BABY!
Not at all. The number of infections everywhere is based on the number of persons tested. You could say the same in the US for example if the test was available to asymptomatic persons.

The analysis presented is based on available data.

Very good presentation of available data.
Its impossible to get an accurate reflection of the data when the testing is so limited. In a population of over 9 million and youre averaging simply 148 tests per day tells us this document and data is flawed. What we do know is that if youre tested in the DR youre likely covid positive. That doesnt lower the statistical curve at all and will likely enhance it.
 

Olly

Active member
Mar 12, 2007
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jsaladin - this is great analysis - thank you for sharing.

alexw -this analysis is great and if you can provide better data than those provided officially please do so ! Similarly if you feel you have better analysis than jsaladin them please share it !

Jsaladin - Do you have any projections as to the peak using the Gaussian model ? That would be useful .

Thanks for all you have done - it is great.

Olly and the Team
 

alexw

Well-known member
Sep 6, 2008
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NYC-SDQ BABY!
jsaladin - this is great analysis - thank you for sharing.

alexw -this analysis is great and if you can provide better data than those provided officially please do so ! Similarly if you feel you have better analysis than jsaladin them please share it !

Jsaladin - Do you have any projections as to the peak using the Gaussian model ? That would be useful .

Thanks for all you have done - it is great.

Olly and the Team
Its not that I have better analysis. The problem I have is making growth charts based on limited data. But I digress. The DR is increasing testing on a daily basis which is a huge positive.
 

william webster

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2009
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Prognostications - forecasts - are exactly that
unless you know the premise.... they're useless

Our friend has laid out some scenarios - choose one you like - are comfortable with... and follow your nose

He has indicated that his most dire projection is highly improbable -
yet some/many may want to see a 'worst case' scenario

a smorgasbord we are given..... eat up !!!
 

carlos

Super Moderator
Staff member
May 29, 2002
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Its not that I have better analysis. The problem I have is making growth charts based on limited data. But I digress. The DR is increasing testing on a daily basis which is a huge positive.
But Alex,

You can only provide stats with the data inputs available . In an ideal situation, you would test the whole 11 million plus Dominicans but we know that’s not possible.

I want to thank Juan Carlos, Fabio and everyone else at Guzman Ariza for taking the time to do this.
 

jsaladin

Member
Apr 4, 2020
44
64
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Report # 15 Statistical Analysis 6/5/2020

Hello DR1 community, I have read all the comments about the report and the statistics. First I want to start by thanking you for taking the time to read them and reminding you that these data are taken from the special bulletins issued by the Ministry of Public Health in its press conference from Sunday to Friday.

Regarding the quality of the data, they have improved a lot since the pandemic began and the communication circulation in the country. It is true something, and that is that no country was prepared to suddenly receive this new virus that affects our respiratory system.

In the coming days, I am sure, according to the Minister's comments in his speeches, we will have more results and that is good because we will be able to isolate confirmed patients faster and healthy patients will be distant for their protection.

The report is a tool that has life. Every day I feed it with the new data and the graphs show us the behavior of the virus in the country. Remember that we are a Caribbean country and that makes us very social beings. When social distancing measures are implemented, this culture shock is not easy to assimilate between some social classes and that is why it has been so difficult for people to come to their senses in time. But I am sure that little by little we will be slowing down the exponential growth that COVID-19 has so that it does not get out of control. Statistics will tell us without using words.

I also share the link of the report # 15 updated to date, click here.

Thank you all for your comments.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladin
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza

Visit our Resource Center, click here


But Alex,

You can only provide stats with the data inputs available . In an ideal situation, you would test the whole 11 million plus Dominicans but we know that’s not possible.

I want to thank Juan Carlos, Fabio and everyone else at Guzman Ariza for taking the time to do this.
 

jsaladin

Member
Apr 4, 2020
44
64
18
Report # 16 Statistical Analysis 7/4/2020

Dear members of the DR1 community, and readers who have responded to the statistical analysis, thank you for taking the time to read this report. The main goal of this work is to keep the Dominican and international population informed with official data from the Ministry of Public Health.

According to your questions, I will be answering you little by little.

About today's report, here is the link so you can consult it in PDF, click here.

Take care and we stay in touch.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza


But Alex,

You can only provide stats with the data inputs available . In an ideal situation, you would test the whole 11 million plus Dominicans but we know that’s not possible.

I want to thank Juan Carlos, Fabio and everyone else at Guzman Ariza for taking the time to do this.
 

Conchman

Well-known member
Jul 3, 2002
4,543
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www.oceanworld.net
Only 4500 people tested in DR. Lots of signs that this could get ugly quick. We had Carnival in late Feb and elections March 15th. You couldnt create a better way to spread it. Heard that some doctors are deserting the public hospital but maybe it's a money issue, its prob something else.
 

Africaida

Well-known member
Jun 19, 2009
7,254
503
113
But Alex,

You can only provide stats with the data inputs available . In an ideal situation, you would test the whole 11 million plus Dominicans but we know that’s not possible.

I want to thank Juan Carlos, Fabio and everyone else at Guzman Ariza for taking the time to do this.
Oops, not meant to dislike.