Statistic analysis of COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic

XTraveller

Active member
Aug 21, 2010
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Thank you Sr. Saladin.
Very interesting and professional analysis. Following it ever day.
Can you explain how is the "Factor de Infecion" calculated?

XTraveller
 

jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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Report # 17 Statistical Analysis 8/4/2020

Dear members of the DR1 community, and readers who have responded to the statistical analysis, thank you for taking the time to read this report. The main goal of this work is to keep the Dominican and international population informed with official data from the Ministry of Public Health.

According to your questions, I will be answering you little by little.

About today's report, here is the link so you can consult it in PDF, click here.

Take care and we stay in touch.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
Visit the Guzmán Ariza Resource Center for COVID-19, clic here


Thank you Sr. Saladin.
Very interesting and professional analysis. Following it ever day.
Can you explain how is the "Factor de Infecion" calculated?

XTraveller
 

jsaladin

Active member
Apr 4, 2020
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Report # 18 Statistical Analysis 9/4/2020

Dear members of the DR1 community, and readers who have responded to the statistical analysis, thank you for taking the time to read this report. The main goal of this work is to keep the Dominican and international population informed with official data from the Ministry of Public Health.

According to your questions, I will be answering you little by little.

About today's report, here is the link so you can consult it in PDF, click here.

Take care and we stay in touch.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
Visit the Guzmán Ariza Resource Center for COVID-19, clic here


Dear members of the DR1 community, and readers who have responded to the statistical analysis, thank you for taking the time to read this report. The main goal of this work is to keep the Dominican and international population informed with official data from the Ministry of Public Health.

According to your questions, I will be answering you little by little.

About today's report, here is the link so you can consult it in PDF, click here.

Take care and we stay in touch.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
Visit the Guzmán Ariza Resource Center for COVID-19, clic here
 

jsaladin

Active member
Apr 4, 2020
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Report # 18 Statistical Analysis 9/4/2020

Hello readers, here is the link for today's report. To enter click here.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladin
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza


Dear members of the DR1 community, and readers who have responded to the statistical analysis, thank you for taking the time to read this report. The main goal of this work is to keep the Dominican and international population informed with official data from the Ministry of Public Health.

According to your questions, I will be answering you little by little.

About today's report, here is the link so you can consult it in PDF, click here.

Take care and we stay in touch.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
Visit the Guzmán Ariza Resource Center for COVID-19, clic here
 

austriaco

Active member
Mar 16, 2020
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which means that entire document is skewed.
I am sorry to break that news, as I can see there was going a lot of work in doing a correct analysis, but as with every statistic its garbage in results in garbage out.

The number of tests is beyond ridiculous low.

In Austria there was 130 000 tests done so far with the same population size and now they did a random sample and found out that there is still 3 times more cases then they found with 130 000 tests. Imagine how the situation is with the 5000 tests done. They also compared the full tests with the rapid tests and abandoned the rapid tests because they are worthless wrong.

If you compare the number of tests being 26 times lower, you can estaminate, that the real number in DR are 50 times higher than the reported numbers. All the statistic looks different with 50 times higher numbers. I can see there was a lot of effort put in the statistics, but until the data to build the statics on its unfortunately not worth reading.

Unfortunately its even putting people in risk giving them the hope of false security. It should be obvious that testing only 0,05% of the population and the newspaper full with people begging to be tested and not being tested that you give a false impression using those numbers for more advanced calculation when they are so obviously wrong.
 
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Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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jsaladin - this is great analysis - thank you for sharing again.

It seems a shame that we have to repeat Post #13 for a new comer to DR1

austriaco -this analysis is great and if you can provide better data than those provided officially please do so ! Similarly if you feel you have better analysis than jsaladin them please share it !



Jsaladin -
Thanks for all you have done - it is great.

Olly and the Team
 
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jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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Report # 19 Statistical Analysis 10/4/2020

Hello, Olly and other readers of the community, thank you very much for your message and the follow-up you have given me since the beginning. The information I share with you is the official information offered by the institutions of our country. According to all the articles that I have read about the data that they are presenting outside the DR (China, North Korea, USA), they all have a margin of error and our resources cannot be compare with other countries more wealthy and with a more trained technical staff. I understand that we must improve the sampling and the way we carry the data, but it is what we have. I understand that it would be worse if we did not have numbers or data to hold on to and make good decisions.

I also take this opportunity to share the report # 19 updated to April 10. To enter click here.

In addition, I opened a form for those readers who wish to leave me their email and send them the reports periodically. To fill out the form click here.

I also invite you to read the articles that are published in the resource-center of our firm, Guzmán Ariza, to enter click here.

Take care.

Best regards,

Juan C. Saladín Bonilla
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza



jsaladin - this is great analysis - thank you for sharing again.

It seems a shame that we have to repeat Post #13 for a new comer to DR1

austriaco -this analysis is great and if you can provide better data than those provided officially please do so ! Similarly if you feel you have better analysis than jsaladin them please share it !



Jsaladin -
Thanks for all you have done - it is great.

Olly and the Team
 
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austriaco

Active member
Mar 16, 2020
213
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28
jsaladin - this is great analysis - thank you for sharing again.

It seems a shame that we have to repeat Post #13 for a new comer to DR1

austriaco -this analysis is great and if you can provide better data than those provided officially please do so ! Similarly if you feel you have better analysis than jsaladin them please share it !



Jsaladin -
Thanks for all you have done - it is great.

Olly and the Team
Yes, of course, I explain my data / how I got there and maybe it can be used to improve the calculation if I can convince:

In statistics you need to not only make the main calculation but always as well calculate your intervall of confidence. This is a fundamental law of statistics and partly of quality managnent of data as well. Thats how I learned it in University and praciticed.

This is even more importaned in cases of a small sample size.

Now the published data used is the absolut lower end of the intervall. Lets use 2000 cases 100 dead at 5000 tests as example of the lower bound.

We know the relation of number of tests to another country with same Population size which did a large complete sample of the population to discover the hidden and asymtomatic cases.

Now at 130000 tests you hace 3 times more hidden cases than discovered cases.

At 5000 tests you do 26 times less tests. Now I assume for the upper bound this means its 26 times more cases not discovered. Of course it will likely be only 20 times BUT we loooking for the upper bound so we have to use the theoretical highest number.

Therefore the upper bound is 3x26 = 78 times the lower bound.

We are looking at 156000 cases as the absolut worst case. However we can say with very high confidence the number of cases is between 2000 and 156000. Now my guess is 77000 cases (the middle of upper and lower bound)

Now the best way forward would be to redo the calculation with the 3 scenarios, lower, middle and higher - then this would be mucho more realistic.

As of number of death, it is proven that in scenarios with notvenough tests the numbers of death are severly underreported. There are studies from Lombardy with up to 6 times underreportimg of death.

Therfore assuming 600 death as upper bound would be prudent. Using that number for the high scenario calculation.

I hope I explained my data on base of statitic science well enough - its basically one most importaned dimension for the modell more which is currently missing, number of hidden cases.


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Conchman

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this is reply to post but now i dont know which one. LOL

you are absolutely correct, the numbers do lie! 2500 positives out of 5000 tests? that means they are only testing really really sick people, that are rich and connected. With Carnival and elections, the perfect distriubtion mechanics, you know its gotta be rampant prob with a lot of young asymptomatic carriers. Look how they crowd on the pick up trucks during elections, yelling, kissing, hugging, shaking hands, come on its a contagion dream. There has to be 20 x more people infected and the gov knows it bec why would they be setting up road blocks to separate the cities?
 
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jsaladin

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UPDATES!

Hello community, first I want to thank everyone for the comments and suggestions they have given in response to statistical analyzes on the evolution of COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic. Second, I had not republished the most recent reports because I had a problem with my internet browser and the new updated of the DR1 forum (wonderful job to the team! Is looks fresh and nice).

Regarding the novelties in the tests to detect COVID-19, I have read many international newspapers and I see that carrying out the tests is a challenge in all the countries where this pandemic has arrived. Only Asian countries have better control of test execution and prompt isolation. This is a challenge for everyone.

Here I share the report # 27 updated on 4/20, to consult click here.

If you wish to receive this report periodically in your email, please fill out this form (click here) and I will add it to the mailing list.

I hope you all are doing well.

Best regards,

Juan Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 

jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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REPORT #28

Hello community, here you will find the report # 28 updated on 4/21, to consult click here.

If you wish to receive this report periodically in your email, please fill out this form (click here) and I will add it to the mailing list.

I hope you all are doing well.

Best regards,

Juan Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 

jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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REPORT #29

Hello community, here you will find the report # 29 updated on 4/22, to consult click here.

If you wish to receive this report periodically in your email, please fill out this form (click here) and I will add it to the mailing list.

I hope you all are doing well.

Best regards,

Juan Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 

XTraveller

Active member
Aug 21, 2010
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Thank you Sr.Saladin
I thought you had abandon us for a while. Also thanks for explaining how "f.i." is calculated in one of your previous works.

Really appreciate your work.

Stay Healthy

Xtraveller
 
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jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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Hello Xtraveller, thanks for your message. I had problems with the platform after the update, but I'm back.

Stay safe and healthy.

Best regards,

Juan

Thank you Sr.Saladin
I thought you had abandon us for a while. Also thanks for explaining how "f.i." is calculated in one of your previous works.

Really appreciate your work.

Stay Healthy

Xtraveller
 

jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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REPORT #30

Hello community, here you will find the report # 30 updated on 4/23, to consult click here.

If you wish to receive this report periodically in your email, please fill out this form (click here) and I will add it to the mailing list.

I hope you all are doing well.

Best regards,

Juan Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 

jsaladin

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Hello, Expat-in-Cabarete, thanks for your message. On the date for flattening the curve, the Minister (during the inauguration of the C5i) said he expects the peak of the curve for the end of May, beginning of June. We still have several days of great care and social distancing. I hope this has clarified your question.

Best regards,

Juan

Thanks for your analysis. I’ve read it but still couldn't find the expected date for flattening of the curve. Anyone knows?
 

jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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REPORT #31

Hello community, here you will find the report # 31 updated on 4/24, to consult click here.

If you wish to receive this report periodically in your email, please fill out this form (click here) and I will add it to the mailing list.

I hope you all are doing well.

Best regards,

Juan Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 

jsaladin

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Apr 4, 2020
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REPORT #32

Hello community, here you will find the report # 32 updated on 4/25, to consult click here.

If you wish to receive this report periodically in your email, please fill out this form (click here) and I will add it to the mailing list.

I will not be publishing this report on Sundays, resuming again on Monday, April 27.

I hope you all are doing well.

Best regards,

Juan Saladín
Quality Manager at Guzmán Ariza
 
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