Subtropical Storm OLGA was Late Season Tropical Depression 94

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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First post by A.Hidalgo
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000
WONT41 KNHC 092158
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
..AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

bolding by me
 

Chris

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Chris

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A tropical storm may well develop from 94 which is a surface trough and currently around 550 miles NorthNorthEast of Puerto Rico. It is motoring fast, 15 - 20 miles per hour to the West. For this time in December it is way outside the usual envelope.

We still have conditions (sea surface temperatures, upper level environment and winds) favorable enough to support a tropical storm but the changes for development are low. Let's watch it anyway, even just for potential rainfall.
 

Chris

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Noaa is saying that there still is a possibility of a tropical cyclone forming in the next 24 hours although the surface conditions are not very favorable. The system is moving Westward at around 20 miles per hour and is now 250 miles East of Puerto Rico. It looks like rain and showers well to the North of where we think this system is. So, be aware that you may have to deal with gusty winds and heavy rainbands/squalls tonight and tomorrow over the North East and South Coasts.

storm_94.gif
 

Chris

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We're getting the same warning pattern from the NHC than with Tropical Storm Noel.
"Heavy squalls and gusty winds of near gale force... "
"Heavy rains over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides".

So, better be on the lookout from this evening onwards and do any basic preparation that you need to do, now! The strongest thunderstorms are on the North and Northeast side of the center of the system which again indicates a 'long tail'. It is still called an 'area of low pressure' and there are no indications from the official met offices in terms of how much rain the system contains.

Yes, formal hurricane season is over but last I checked, the weather does not obey the calender. :cheeky: Differences between this system and Noel, is that this one is moving fast, so far.

If all goes well, these images will auto-update.

Caribbean Visible Satellite Image

vis-l.jpg


Infrared

avn-l.jpg


Water Vapor Image

wv-l.jpg
 

Chris

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Apologies to the posters in this thread. I wanted to split it off from Hurricane Season 2007 but lost some posts. I put it together again as best I could. Please feel free to post your comment if I did not include it.
 

Chris

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A tropical cyclone could form at any time during the next 24 hours, but this is not certain. However ..

regardless of whether this low pressure develops further, the expectation is for near gale force winds and heavy rains over Hispaniola as the system moves Westward or West-Southwestward at 15 to 20 miles per hour.

We could again see conditions of flash floods, flooding and mudslides.

clark17latest.png
 

Chris

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Here you can see the rain and in which areas of the storm most rain is. Apologies for the large images. I'll resize them in the next while.

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg">
 

whirleybird

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Feb 27, 2006
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We have just had some more very heavy rain here out near Sabaneta with far more wind than normal.... I just pray that it is okay for those in the lower lying areas. I was not here in DR when Noel hit and left her trail of destruction but hope nothing happens to destroy Christmas for people here.
 
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quaqualita

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Feb 4, 2002
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I read in ElCaribeCDN.com that the Dominican authorities COE gave 'red alert' for following provices: Santiago, Puerto Plata; Espaillat; Hermanas Mirabal (Salcedo); Duarte, en especial el Bajo Yuna; Mar?a Trinidad S?nchez; Saman?; Monte Cristi; Valverde, Mao; S?nchez Ram?rez; el Seibo; Hato Mayor en especial Sabana de la Mar; la Altagracia; La vega y Mose?or Nouel.

Does anybody know if red alert means also that schools will be closed in this provinces?
Just want to avoid getting up early and get my daughter ready only to learn that there is no school :ermm:

Hope everybody stays safe!
 

~~anna~~

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Oct 27, 2003
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Just caught the end of Channel 7 ABC weather out of New York. Ch 77 on our cable here in Juan Dolio. They spoke briefly on this storm. Said it could become Tropical Storm Olga, and be a heavy rain producer for Hispaniola. Here we go again???
 

Chris

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There should be a small craft advisory on the North Coast and around the Samana area. Don't plan to go out boating for the next 48 hours or so.

Also, the expectation is high and battering waves.

I cannot yet get a good feeling on how much rain is inside this system.

So, all on the North Coast, North East and up the South Coast should better shake off their hurricane preparedness kit, just for incase we have a late development and this system decides to strenghten. The Puerto Rican North Coast is reporting high waves, winds and of course, rain.

I'm glad to see that the visitor count to this post has gone up dramatically over the past few hours - this tells me that people are paying attention.
 
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DrChrisHE

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Jul 23, 2006
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Thanks Chris & everyone...Is there a way that DR1 could put a RED ALERT banner when people go to sign in? I just stumbled upon this by accident because I was looking at the US National Weather service report on the US ice storm--and then PR came up with an alert. It's just an idea and I'm not even sure it's a good one because people hate pop-ups; beats dying though.
 

CJnNJ

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Aug 7, 2005
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Tropical Storm Olga

Is it too early to tell the track path of this storm over DR? It looks like it's heading for the North and Northeastern part of the island.

CJ