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The drought is here to stay - The UN has spoken
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jstarebel
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Do you have any evidence to back up your post? I ask because the largest hurricane in history was Irma in 2017. This year, Dorian was the strongest surpassing sustained wind speed. Being that hurricanes are basically the oceans air conditioner and sea temperatures have been and continue to rise, It's perfectly logical for the number of hurricanes and their intensities to increase.
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cobraboy
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There is more damage in modern times, because many more humans are living in hurricane zones.
But the "more and more powerful hurricanes" is Warmer hyperbole.
I also don't think we know enough about "history" to say whether Irma was the largest or not.
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chico bill
Guest
Based on widespread destruction and cost (and still used as a comparison today)
It was Katrina - 2005 - 902 millibars - 175 mph - Cost = $161.6 billion
But hurricane Allen in 1980 had the highest measured winds at 190 mph
There was also one in 1932 in Cuba, before good hurricane hunters were around that hit 176 MPH, so that was almost before cars were omnipresent, nor air conditioning or jet travel.
But they really aren't getting stronger nor more frequent since the Global Warming hysteria was coined by Al Gore in 2006.
Seasons with the most hurricanes, 1851 - Present
Rank Year Number of Hurricanes
1. 2005 15
2. 2010 12
2. 1969 12
4. 1887 11
4. 1950 11
4. 1998 11
4. 1995 11
8. 2012 10
8. 1933 10
8. 1916 10
Seasons with the most major hurricanes, 1851 - Present
Rank Year Number of Major Hurricanes
1. 1950 8
2. 2005 7
3. 1999 6
3. 1996 6
3. 1964 6
3. 1961 6
3. 1955 6
3. 1926 6
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jstarebel
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There is more damage in modern times, because many more humans are living in hurricane zones.
But the "more and more powerful hurricanes" is Warmer hyperbole.
I also don't think we know enough about "history" to say whether Irma was the largest or not.
Your links posted reference the USA and not overall numbers. There is a lot more to the world than the USA.
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cobraboy
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Could be, but I would also assume that the same trend would be true overall. It's not like AlGore dispatches hurricanes to specific locations to make a point.
It's all random, and a random sampling of the US would most likely mirror a random sampling of the rest of the tropics.
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drstock
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Olly
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Hi Guys and Girls, On the north coast we have been monitoring rainfall in the same location and on the same devise since 20o7 - some twelve years.
The overall trend is up!
But in the last 2years from March 2018 there has been a significant deficit here.
The lack of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes has not improve the situation but the majority of rainfall here falls in Oct/Nov/Dec . If we forecast to year end using our averages it will be 87 Inches.
So the real problem is water management rather than drought !
Olly and the Team
The overall trend is up!
But in the last 2years from March 2018 there has been a significant deficit here.
The lack of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes has not improve the situation but the majority of rainfall here falls in Oct/Nov/Dec . If we forecast to year end using our averages it will be 87 Inches.
So the real problem is water management rather than drought !
Olly and the Team
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chico bill
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Seriously - Dude just admit you were wrong and lost the argument or post worldwide data. You sound like a 4-year old trying to debate
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Olly
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Etolw, I really like your post# 12 with the info about the rainfall models. Intuitively the temps rise would cause more evaporation and hence more rainfall. Evaporation is world wide but rainfall is not. So the 1.5 Deg rise will cause about 10 % more evaporation. And yet the rains only fall over say 30% of the worlds surface. This implies a 30% increase in rainfall where it does rain !
I am interested in your reference to models as I have been unable to find any global forecasts for rainfail or indeed any global measurements of rainfall.
As we seem to be getting 1000 year floods every few years perhaps a lot more work needs to be done on this aspect of climate modelling.
Olly and the Team
I am interested in your reference to models as I have been unable to find any global forecasts for rainfail or indeed any global measurements of rainfall.
As we seem to be getting 1000 year floods every few years perhaps a lot more work needs to be done on this aspect of climate modelling.
Olly and the Team
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KyleMackey
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Hurricanes have been around forever. Even the Tainos had symbols for them.
Hurricane is derived from a Taino word hurracan or something like that.
Hurricane is derived from a Taino word hurracan or something like that.
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chico bill
Guest
I think ocean temps are a better measure as weather stations are affected by nearby concrete roads and buildings. Many located at airports where air traffic has increased.
And ocean temperatues from the 50s through 1990 were below average but since then have increased. So in the last 100 years ocean temperatures (in the top few meters of ocean) are 0.13 C higher (.23 F) Not very much in 100 years. I imagine that is due mainly to solar activity, but now we are at the beginning of decreased sun spots, aka Maunder minimum, which was what occurred to cause the last 60-year little ice age.
I don't think any one can predict how much temperature could drop or how long a minimum might last but we can say if the sun activity stays low for an extended period everyone will be wishing for Global Warming in order to have food and not freeze to death. The low solar cycle starting now.
https://electroverse.net/nasa-predi...years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/
https://www.express.co.uk/news/scie...today-space-solar-minimum-2019-weather-report
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chico bill
Guest
It's funny the UN would be saying Global Warming is causing a permanent drought, when other Global Warming advocates say it is causing more flooding and higher incidents of record storms and more widespread precipitation. I remember CA Governor Jerry Brown in 2016 (aka Moonbeam) saying a few years of low rainfall was "the new paradigm" of drought for California due to Global Warming. But low and behold record rainfalls occurred in 2017, causing the Oroville Dam to almost fail and finally, as he was about to leave office, Moonbeam said the drought was officially ended but that higher water rates and water restrictions must remain in place ( liberals never give back)
https://www.ucsusa.org/global_warmi.../impacts/early-warning-signs-of-global-3.html
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ljmesg
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The mountains contain 15-20' high rivers of water. RIVERS OF WATER. An ENDLESS SUPPLY.
There is no infrastructure or proper equipment to tap into these rivers.
The way to cure the drought will of course be a flood. A flood is imminent.
Just have to wait it out.
There is no infrastructure or proper equipment to tap into these rivers.
The way to cure the drought will of course be a flood. A flood is imminent.
Just have to wait it out.
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chico bill
Guest
Some DR storm video from this morning
https://noticiassin.com/lluvias-provocan-mas-inundaciones-en-constanza/
https://noticiassin.com/lluvias-provocan-mas-inundaciones-en-constanza/
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etolw
Guest
A lot of data can be found at this site, one can play with different climate models
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/dominican-republic/climate-data-projections?variable=pr
You are right, warming is expected to result in dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in mid- and high-latitude areas.
There are actually relatively few areas that all the models agree will become wetter or drier.
There are 39 different climate models within CMIP5 that provide estimates of precipitation changes in the future. Unlike for temperature, where models show a general degree of agreement about future regional changes, different models may have the same region becoming much wetter or much drier in a warming world.
I have not seen any model that predicts substantial drought to persist in the DR, I believe that assumption is not based on solid science.
More reading about the different models and rainfalls
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall
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etolw
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Current water reservoirs have lost up to 20% capacity due to sedimentation. There is no money budgeted for maintenance of the dams. And more dams may need to be built due to larger demands.
Only 26% of the water available in the country is stored; the rest is not conserved or retained due to lack of infrastructure. The 34 reservoirs are not enough and, Olgo Fernández, director of the Indrhi, hace stressed the need to build another 12 large dams and 52 medium and small dams.
50% of the water are lost due to leaking water pipes before reaching the consumer, needs a lot of funding to fix as well.
If droughts persists those areas might provide the extra needed capacity.
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bob saunders
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etolw
Guest
The last water quality and sedimentation study of eight main dams done in the Dominican Republic was carried out in 2016 by the Infraeco consulting firm for Indrhi in Monción, Tavera, Bao, Rincon, Hatillo, Jigüey, Valdesia and Sabana Yegua. The evaluation, which could be worse now, three years later, found that the most unfavorable dams in terms of sedimentation were Jigüey and Valdesia, which had lost 24% and 30%, respectively, of their storage capacity.
“If measures are not taken in the watersheds, a day will come that when it rains, all the water will go directly to the sea, and the dams will be sedimented and water will go over the dams and we will lose the water,” said Augusto Rodríguez, a member of the Dominican Geology Society and former executive director of Indrhi.
Fix that problem first seems logical then.
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chico bill
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Some more nice fresh water large lakes in DR would be nice. I mean as long as they are not downstream of major populated areas.
Some places lakes would become pollution traps for every piece of plastic and Styrofoam used upstream. One only needs to look at Puerto Plata streams and the ocean outfalls to see what I mean. But I do not think their are many migratory fish (like salmon) that would be threatened here from dams ?
Today has been an acute day for power on / power off. At least 15 times it has gone out and returned in Sosua. Something sure is amiss