Tourism to increase by 8% in 2014

cobraboy

Pro-Bono Demolition Hobbyist
Jul 24, 2004
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Because claiming that one can predict the future is beyond normal human abilities.
Calling the name "Asonahores" super cool was actually intended to be satirical.

The US Navy is hard to beat for silly-sounding abbreviations.
XO, every well-managed business on the planet forecasts revenues/costs/etc.

Gubmint forecasts.

I can see bidniz and numbers just aren't your realm...
 

jabejuventus

Bronze
Feb 15, 2013
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that is a blanket statement that has to be examined more closely. if the increase in tourist footfall is not matched by a corresponding increase in carrying capacity, you get Puerto Plata. if you examine most popular tourist destinations, and look at their histories, you will find that they were first discovered by adventurous people, then they became developed, and stabilized. the mass tourism came later down the line. a look at the tourism life cycle expounded by Butler shows that the decline of tourist destinations is usually occasioned by overstressing the carrying capacity, at which time the concept of diminishing returns begins to set in. overspecialization in tourism is a dangerous economic development model, because it is very dependent upon world economic conditions, and since profit margins are razor thin, a minor falloff in footfall, in single digits, can ravage the returns on investment. it is not a very good idea to build a dependency upon a seasonal business such as tourism, because it also generates a high degree of cyclical unemployment, which further stresses the economy.

the potential for tourism expansion is there, in spades. any temptation to try to get as many heads in the beds has to be tempered with the understanding of the negative externalities.

Excuse me. Let's keep it simple. We're not talking about the ultimate demise of Dominican tourism, whether in the long or the short. We're talking about the predicted 8% growth for 2014. Whether it's 8, 10, or 2% doesn't matter as much as it would if the prediction were for negative growth. Predictions run the gamut from nonsense to evidence-based. In the mathematical worlds of statistics and probability predictions can come close to being guarantees. I suspect that Asonahores is basing his statement on just such mathematical principles, not on vague innuendo such as you've made in your statement.
 

the gorgon

Platinum
Sep 16, 2010
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Excuse me. Let's keep it simple. We're not talking about the ultimate demise of Dominican tourism, whether in the long or the short. We're talking about the predicted 8% growth for 2014. Whether it's 8, 10, or 2% doesn't matter as much as it would if the prediction were for negative growth. Predictions run the gamut from nonsense to evidence-based. In the mathematical worlds of statistics and probability predictions can come close to being guarantees. I suspect that Asonahores is basing his statement on just such mathematical principles, not on vague innuendo such as you've made in your statement.

vague innuendo? what innuendo? who is talking about demise? i merely stated FACTS. there has been talk about getting 10 million tourists by 2016. we are at 4.5 million now, so it means doubling the amount in 2 years. my statement is simply that consideration has to be given to a simultaneous increase in the requisites for smooth functioning of the operations. simple issues will have to be taken into consideration, such as adequate supplies of water, disposal of refuse, security considerations, and, importantly, properly trained hospitality personnel. given the current in-place infrastructure at this time, i am not sure that it could tolerate 10 million tourists. what i stated, and stick to, is that there will have to be growth in the segments of the machine that make for sustainable operation. if those factors are neglected, you will get what happened in POP, where the area just could not carry the footfall.

that is not innuendo.
 

jabejuventus

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Feb 15, 2013
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vague innuendo? what innuendo? who is talking about demise? i merely stated FACTS. there has been talk about getting 10 million tourists by 2016. we are at 4.5 million now, so it means doubling the amount in 2 years. my statement is simply that consideration has to be given to a simultaneous increase in the requisites for smooth functioning of the operations. simple issues will have to be taken into consideration, such as adequate supplies of water, disposal of refuse, security considerations, and, importantly, properly trained hospitality personnel. given the current in-place infrastructure at this time, i am not sure that it could tolerate 10 million tourists. what i stated, and stick to, is that there will have to be growth in the segments of the machine that make for sustainable operation. if those factors are neglected, you will get what happened in POP, where the area just could not carry the footfall.

that is not innuendo.

Whatever.
 

cobraboy

Pro-Bono Demolition Hobbyist
Jul 24, 2004
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I find no problem with the Minister's GOAL of 10,000,000 tourists by 2016.

It's a goal meant to motivate people inside and outside gubmint, rally the troops.

It's no different than any gubmint official making a pledge/promise/goal of, say, healthcare enrollees, deficit reduction or new job creation...all of which lack the attendant "infrastructure" or cultural attitudes to be successful, and many which tend to be political fluff & pipe dreams.

FTR: Asonahores may be in the top 2 of influential organizations in the DR right next to the transport unions.
 

the gorgon

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Sep 16, 2010
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I find no problem with the Minister's GOAL of 10,000,000 tourists by 2016.

It's a goal meant to motivate people inside and outside gubmint, rally the troops.

It's no different than any gubmint official making a pledge/promise/goal of, say, healthcare enrollees, deficit reduction or new job creation...all of which lack the attendant "infrastructure" or cultural attitudes to be successful, and many which tend to be political fluff & pipe dreams.

FTR: Asonahores may be in the top 2 of influential organizations in the DR right next to the transport unions.

and i simply said that having such goals in mind, without understanding the need for the requisites that go along with the expansion , will cause uneconomic growth, and diminishing returns. POP proved that this is not just theory.
 

cobraboy

Pro-Bono Demolition Hobbyist
Jul 24, 2004
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and i simply said that having such goals in mind, without understanding the need for the requisites that go along with the expansion , will cause uneconomic growth, and diminishing returns. POP proved that this is not just theory.
blah blah blah blah

tumblr_mlvfva51M11rkgbhto1_400.gif


It's a GOAL, Mikey. A GOAL. A rally cry.

It's easy for you to sit on your pathetic broke ass in a POP barrio playing dominoes with uneducated locals and poke holes online at people who are actually TRYING to do something positive.

When you show initiative to do ANYTHING positive in and for the DR, beyond flapping your lips, then maybe folks will think "credible" when you post.
 

jabejuventus

Bronze
Feb 15, 2013
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and i simply said that having such goals in mind, without understanding the need for the requisites that go along with the expansion , will cause uneconomic growth, and diminishing returns. POP proved that this is not just theory.

I bet you live on the north coast. As far as noise, I'll leave that to you.
 

the gorgon

Platinum
Sep 16, 2010
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blah blah blah blah

tumblr_mlvfva51M11rkgbhto1_400.gif


It's a GOAL, Mikey. A GOAL. A rally cry.

It's easy for you to sit on your pathetic broke ass in a POP barrio playing dominoes with uneducated locals and poke holes online at people who are actually TRYING to do something positive.

When you show initiative to do ANYTHING positive in and for the DR, beyond flapping your lips, then maybe folks will think "credible" when you post.

and it is easy for you, in the absence of any real knowledge to make a sensible argument, to resort to ad hominems. if you want to appear to be this informed man you claimed to be, then debate the matter with facts. i am merely saying that having a goal is one thing; realizing that such a goal might generate negative externalities is another. unplanned hasty overexpansion of tourism in POP is exactly what led to its demise. if this is repeated in other places, the results will be the very same. touirism is sustainable only to a point, after which the externalities outweigh the benefits.
 

jabejuventus

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Feb 15, 2013
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and it is easy for you, in the absence of any real knowledge to make a sensible argument, to resort to ad hominems. if you want to appear to be this informed man you claimed to be, then debate the matter with facts. i am merely saying that having a goal is one thing; realizing that such a goal might generate negative externalities is another. unplanned hasty overexpansion of tourism in POP is exactly what led to its demise. if this is repeated in other places, the results will be the very same. touirism is sustainable only to a point, after which the externalities outweigh the benefits.

You have officially been relegated to my PYNM (Pay You No Mind) list. See ya.
 

cobraboy

Pro-Bono Demolition Hobbyist
Jul 24, 2004
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and it is easy for you, in the absence of any real knowledge to make a sensible argument, to resort to ad hominems. if you want to appear to be this informed man you claimed to be, then debate the matter with facts. i am merely saying that having a goal is one thing; realizing that such a goal might generate negative externalities is another. unplanned hasty overexpansion of tourism in POP is exactly what led to its demise. if this is repeated in other places, the results will be the very same. touirism is sustainable only to a point, after which the externalities outweigh the benefits.
more blah blah blah

"Absence of any real knowledge?" Jajajajaja! Really? Do you think I've had no contact with neither Asanahores nor the Ministry of Tourism specifically regarding tourism, current issues and future solutions? Seriously?

Do you actually think you're presenting anything that is not known universally, that their are MULTIPLE challenges in even maintaining current world tourism share?

I'm not attacking you. I am stating FACT. All you do is blabber platitudes you think passes for wisdom.
 

Tarheel

Well-known member
Dec 19, 2005
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more blah blah blah

"Absence of any real knowledge?" Jajajajaja! Really? Do you think I've had no contact with neither Asanahores nor the Ministry of Tourism specifically regarding tourism, current issues and future solutions? Seriously?

Do you actually think you're presenting anything that is not known universally, that their are MULTIPLE challenges in even maintaining current world tourism share?

I'm not attacking you. I am stating FACT. All you do is blabber platitudes you think passes for wisdom.

Gordon, how dare you to challenge CrowBoy. He has never been wrong in his life and he knows everything. If you don't believe me just ask him. He is the big fish in a small pond. We should be happy that he comes on to this board to tell us the facts.
 

cobraboy

Pro-Bono Demolition Hobbyist
Jul 24, 2004
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Gordon, how dare you to challenge CrowBoy. He has never been wrong in his life and he knows everything. If you don't believe me just ask him. He is the big fish in a small pond. We should be happy that he comes on to this board to tell us the facts.
You've never met Mikey and know nothing about him, have you? :cheeky:

(BTW, LOVED your comment on the UN graphic on guns.)
 

Criss Colon

Platinum
Jan 2, 2002
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yahoomail.com
I HAVE met "CB" on several occasions, after I meet, "Gorgon",...aka., "Mike", I'll give you my opinion!
Until then, I'm gonna go with "CB"!
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LTSteve

Gold
Jul 9, 2010
5,449
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The Winter in North America has certainly pushed people to warmer climates for vacations. The DR still has the biggest choice atthe most competitive prices of any country in the Caribbean. I think 8% is a lofty goal but possibly doable.

LTSteve
 

wrecksum

Bronze
Sep 27, 2010
2,063
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It will be the foreign tourists flying, not Dominicans. So you are out of luck.

And btw what is your problem? The airline will be run by a reputable company
Line maintenance will be done by their own maintenance team brought in from Europe. Base maintenance for B and eventual C checks will be done in Canada in Montreal, maybe they will also do it in Miami, there are two facilities there. So again, what's the problem?

ROUTES AMERICAS: Avion Express to Establish Dominican Wings in Americas Market :: Routesonline

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I'm quite sure that a domestic airline could flourish here if correctly run, but

One of those things that Dominicans don't do well is punctuality, and without that, any airline is bound to struggle. That really would be the biggest hurdle to overcome to make a viable service.
 

the gorgon

Platinum
Sep 16, 2010
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I'm quite sure that a domestic airline could flourish here if correctly run, but

One of those things that Dominicans don't do well is punctuality, and without that, any airline is bound to struggle. That really would be the biggest hurdle to overcome to make a viable service.

the term "correctly run" is the fly in the ointment.
 
Aug 6, 2006
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XO, every well-managed business on the planet forecasts revenues/costs/etc.

Gubmint forecasts.

I can see bidniz and numbers just aren't your realm...
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I am aware that government makes forecasts. Everybody makes forecasts. What I said was that ACCURATE forecasts are generally inaccurate, and should be called "goals". Governments can make budgets, in which they say that they will spend $x on various items. As a rule, they rarely ever get it right. The printer will need more or less toner, the soldiers will wear out more of fewer shoes, the president's wife will use more or fewer rolls of toilet paper. Budgets are usually more accurate than forecasts, but still are rarely entirely accurate. This particular forecast is based on luring tourists to the DR from over a dozen countries. I cannot imagine how it could be anything but a goal.

What I know about businesses and governments is that they pretend to know it all, and when it is apparent that they did not know it all, they rewrite history and claim they really meant their forecasts to be as they actually turned out. I read shareholders reports all the time, and it is very rare that the predictions in any given year actually come out in the following year's report. There are either lame excuses or they ignore the previous report entirely. Only the money balances, because the law requires it.