Tropical Storm Alert: Fabian Is Headed This Way

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Hillbilly

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Not to get upset or anything, but as of 10:49 this morning (Sunday) Fabian was heading due West at 13 miles per hour about two days East of here, at 18.1 degrees North.

However, the probablities of a direct hit are reasonably low. It will either veer to the North (most likely) or go to the South. My experience shows that at this latitude and at this distance, the hurricane will go to the North. Maybe some good waves in Cabarete...

WE WILL GET RAIN--and this is good since we need it.

However, you should take normal precautions and keep water batteries and some canned food on hand... See DR1 Archives for safety tips.


HB
 

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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I've been tracking this storm for the past 2 days. Some times it goes west, sometimes west north west. The latest report showed it going west, but the National Hurricane Center believes it will pass well north of the Dominican Republic
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1003W+GIF/311508W.gif

The storm is still a long way from the DR. It was 1050 miles from Samana as of 11am this morning. Like all hurricanes in the region, Fabian's progress should be watched since these storms don't always perform as the National Hurricane Center expects them to. But there is reason to believe that the storm will pass to the north since storms on the track it is following most always take a turn toward the north.
 

XanaduRanch

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Sep 15, 2002
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Fabian is a relatively small hurricane so if it takes the track expected we won't even see any rain, unfortunately. Maybe, just maybe, some good surf in Cabarete as it passes.

All hurricanes in that part of the Atlantic to strengthen significantly require a fair sized area of high pressure on the north side of the system to cut down on shearing which might otherwise tear the system apart. Fabian has that. It is tracking along the south side of this high pressure area which is in the central Atlantic and moving east. As Fabian gets around the other side of the high it is expected to steer northwest and maybe eventually north 1) because it's around the high by that time, and 2) because an area of low pressure, a trough or cold front, will be moving off the eastern U.S. at the same time that will literally provide a 'valley' for the storm to roll into and curve in that direction.

Tom (aka XR)
 

andy a

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Feb 23, 2002
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? for Xanadu

Do you have any info as to the water temperature along the projected route of Fabian?

It seems to me that the summer has been slightly cooler than normal (despite hotspots like Western Europe and the Northwest US). I wonder if this can be confirmed (or denied) by ocean temperature.
 

andy a

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Feb 23, 2002
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If the western Atlantic should happen to be slightly cooler than normal (not yet confirmed), I would expect that to put somewhat of a damper on the intensity of hurricanes. Of course there are other factors as well.

Edited to add:

How did you edit your post so fast to correct my name and not get tracked?
 
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Hillbilly

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At 5:00 p.m. still tracking West

At 12 mph. A Cat 2 storm. I agree that it will probably head North, for all the good reasons that XR put up and the fact that they go North more often than not.

Keep your finger crossed for the rain...

Hb
 

XanaduRanch

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Yeah, Ken, you beat me to it. I just looked at the latest sat photo from our dish here and the eye is very distinct and I thought no way this hasn't strengthened. It's now CAT4 with winds to near 140 mph. But on Thursday it's still expected to be about 1/2 between the Northcoast and Bermuda.
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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beautiful

This is a very beautiful hurricane -- perfectly formed. Let's now hope that it turns just a tad more north and expend its fury and energy somewhere harmlessly in the ocean - and of course leave some rain in its wake to keep HB happy! Well, it better turn a tad more north otherwise it will smack us silly.
 

XanaduRanch

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One last update before I go back to bed.

It is a beautiful system from a meteorologists perspective, too. It's a classic. As of midnight the eye has opened and warmed, the cloud tops cooled. NOAA's satellite based wind estimation programs as of midnight DR time indicate sustained winds between 146mph to 161mph depending on which model you believe. So, it's probably already a Category 5, with gusts up close to 200 mph. Yikes!

They have left the officially posted speed at 138mph awaiting tomorrow morning as a hurricane hunter airplane will enter the system around 6AM to actually measure the winds for real.

The storm is still expected to curve northwest over time and as such even the leewards, or Puerto Rico, do not have so much as tropical storm watches in effect at this time.
 
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XanaduRanch

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Good News Continues

A Gulfstream IV from NASA/NOAA sampled Fabian this morning. The worldwide computer weather modeling systems used this actual data instead of estimates ti 'initialize' where Fabian was, what it was doing, etc. and extrapolate. And the good news is that the forecast track predicted by almost all of the models is if anything even a little more to the right (North) than previously.

So, little impact if any expected here in the Dominican Republic at all at this time. Probably not even rain.

The storm to me looked a little more raggedy in the morning photos, Still even probably having lost a little the airplane found flight level winds of around 135kts. That would translate to about 136mph at the surface. If the storm were in the gulf or Caribbean where waters are warmer it could strengthen much more, where it is in the Atlantic I would expect 3 days maybe close to this intensity before slowly losing strength. The only changes in intensity really will be what we saw the last 24 hours. As the eyewall strengthens or weakens, replaced and reformed by new thunderstorms as others die out, the strength of the system will fluctuate.

Still, a neat storm to watch! Now, if I were in Bermuda I might be a little more nervous ...
 

XanaduRanch

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Personally

Except that all the tourists would have a fit I'd love to see it come closer to the North coast. Just enough to see the storm bands, get some nice rain and thunderstorms, good breezes, and watch the high surf pounding the beaches for a day or two. We still need the rain and I enjoy a good storm. And we have a good view here from Xanadu.
 

Ken

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If you had a sailboat moored in Samana harbor like I do, you wouldn't be wishing that.
 

Larry

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Mar 22, 2002
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latest projections

Latest projections have it passing on the east side of Puerto Rico up toward bermuda
Larry
 
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