Tropical Storm Ivan

[Dolores1]

The 5 pm track shows Ivan slightly lower to the south, better for the DR. Of course the hurricane is too far away... will have to continue the monitoring till it passes us.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/US...harts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none

Also see http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_strike.html for strike probability.

The UKMET model has it going to Yucatan, which means a more southern course which would avoid the DR. See http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

 

[Mauricio]

I just heard it is currently a Category 2 hurricane

 

[Daithi]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3632636.stm

Looks like Barahona is in for it!

 

[Dolores1]

The more recent forecasts have it passing south of Barahona.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/060908W5.gif

See links above for other models that have it going even more south.

Of course, hurricanes are fickle, so there is nothing more than to monitor it closely and be prepared.

 

[tired_boy]

well ............ one more NHC update on the track before i am on the plane so i am glad that the track has moved abit today.

Lets see what will happen then..........

 

[SaltyDawg]

As of the 5:00 advisories, Ivan is located at 11.6n 55.3w which is 305 miles (14 hours at current speed) east southeast of Barbados .

That is also 1035 miles southeast of the DR or 47 hours away on her current track.

His track has turned slightly north on a heading of 285 degrees - 5 degrees more than the 2:00pm advisories. Still only 15 degrees north of due west.

However, as Delores mentions and as all the marine forecasts currently show, Ivan should pass about 40-50 miles south of Cabo Beata or about 100 miles south of Barahona. So Barahona would probably only see 20-30mph winds at most. But the southeast and southwest coast of the Sierra de Bahoruco peninsula will probably get heavy surf and storm surge and maybe 40-50 mph winds as Ivan passes.

Does anyone know anybody living on Isla Beata? Maybe they can let us know what they see over the next two days.

If Ivan does the above, he will miss Santo Domingo by about 150 miles and the Capital City would then only experience conditions similar to what the North Coast saw 2 weeks ago with the passing of Frances.

So - I don't think we will see much changing in the 11:00pm advisories; but we should still keep an eye on this fella. Tomorrow morning will show what happened in Barbados and St Lucia by mid-day. Tomorrow afternoon should give us a much better feel as to where Ivan might be headed in the Caribbean basin, and how close to the DR.

Enjoy your flight, tired-boy and bienvenido to paradise!

 

[Pib]

Latest from Bok:

Newest info received:

Expected position Sep 9th at 0200 DR time: 130 nautical miles = 240 km south of Sto Dgo Max winds: 120 knots = 220 km/h, gusts up to 145 knots = 270 km/h. Expect winds of less than 30 knots = 55 km/h in Sto Dgo. Track now: From mentioned position passing south of Isla Beata then just south of Haiti then passing over Cuba.

I hope this trend of Ivan taking a course further west and south continues, but a lot can happen in three days. Keep your fingers crossed.

the weatherman

 

[PJT]

Much to the relief of the island the NHC has updated the projected storm path as of the Monday 11 pm report to a "fix to the south of the previous forecast track". It is distancing itself from Hispaniola.

Regards,
PJT

 

[Paulino]

According to the latest NHC advisory (#20) as of 0500 edt Ivan is not likely to hit the DR at all. (OK, this is old news, what I mean is that as far as I can judge the likely path has been moved even farther south than in the preceding advisory).

 

[Ken]

The 8 am update indicates that a plane sent to the storm reports that the eye wall is reforming and the current speed of 110 mph is expected to increase as the storm moves into the warmer water of the Caribbean.

Still anticipated is a course passing between Hispaniola and Jamaica, crossing over Cuba and then..... Keep your eye on the storm, Floridians.

 

[SaltyDawg]

Good old Frances!

8:00am Advisories:

Looks like Ivan is passing between Barbados and Tobago. 115 mph winds and lots of rain.

All the computer models are now showing Ivan passing the DR at least 200 miles south of Hispaniola.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

This tendency to stay south of the DR seems to being caused by a strong tropical ridge in the Southeastern US left behind by Frances! Good old Frances!

For those that can read a synoptic chart, Frances is the low pressure area sitting over Georgia and the trough just south of there (trof) is what seems to be keeping Ivan to the south of the DR

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYEB87.TIF

However - just as we are seeing Ivan's behaviour keep changing as he moves west there is nothing certain about this storm. There isn't a lot of experience of storms formed at the low latitude that this one did so the history is scant. In fact the history of storms similar to Ivan shows there are only 6 since 1878 and their tracks are all over the place. See:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_climo.html

Ivan has slowed down a bit to 18mph (830 miles or 46 hours away from the DR at this speed) and moving at 280 degrees or just slightly north of due west. That will put Ivan just south of Santo Domingo on Thursday morning about 200 miles. Thereafter passing Isle Beata about 120 miles away. If he doesn't speed up again, that gives us a little breathing space to see where Ivan will go as he enters the Caribbean basin.

It feels better to see the forecast track moving more southerly, but it's not time to relax yet. Ivan is hitting the warmer waters today and there's no telling how he will intensify and speed up then. He is becoming more organized right at the moment.

 

[Escott]

The 8 am update indicates that a plane sent to the storm reports that the eye wall is reforming and the current speed of 110 mph is expected to increase as the storm moves into the warmer water of the Caribbean.

Still anticipated is a course passing between Hispaniola and Jamaica, crossing over Cuba and then..... Keep your eye on the storm, Floridians.

Sheesh I am starting to feel sorry for Floridians!

 

[skiller]

You can see the current storm track at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/071503W5.gif

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NEARING
TOBAGO...WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH IN BARBADOS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75
KM...NORTHEAST OF TOBAGO.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

 

[Pib]

Latest from my own private weatherman:

Newest info received:

Expected position Sep 9th at 0200 DR time: 300 nautical miles = 555 km south of Sto Dgo Max winds: 120 knots = 220 km/h, gusts up to 145 knots = 270 km/h. Small effect in Sto Dgo. Track now: From mentioned position passing 150 nautical miles south of Isla Beata then just north of Jamaica then passing over Cuba.

See, all that crossing fingers seems to work. Don't stop now, 2 more days and hopefully it will have passed without anyone in the DR knowing about it.

 

[SaltyDawg]

11:00 advisories.

As of the 11:00am advisories, Ivan is passing between Barbados and Trinidad in the Windward Islands. He is passing about 100 miles south of Barbados and there are 90mph wind gusts reported in Barbados.

Ivan is still moving on a track of 280 degrees at 18mph. "The
hurricane is south of a rather strong subtropical ridge which is
steering the hurricane westward." So let's hope she carries on to the west.

At the moment the forecast position of Ivan at 8:00pm Tomorrow night is about 275 miles due south of Isla Saona.

Then as she moves westward, she should pass south of Santo Domingo about 6 hours later, or 2:00am Thursday also about 275 miles away. My numbers are a little different than Bok's but in the same ball park - even though I use statue miles (1.15 sm = 1 nm)

Then about 6 hours later at 8:00 am on Thursday, Ivan should pass the closest point to the DR which is Isla Beata about 150 miles off.

So even at these forecasted distances, the south coast is not immune. The winds up to 175 miles to the northeast and northwest of the storm are forecast to be in the region of 40mph with gusts to 50 or 60. Barbados is currently experiencing 90mph gusts 100 miles away from the eye.

So let's hope he continues more west than northwest and we spare the folks down in Barahona and the peninsula the discomfort the edges of Category 3 Ivan can bring.

Still worth keeping a close eye on this storm.

 

[dee2123]

I am flying in to Punta Cana on Sunday morning from Chicago. Do you suppose this will have any effect on my flight plans?

 

[Dolores1]

I am flying in to Punta Cana on Sunday morning from Chicago. Do you suppose this will have any effect on my flight plans?

None at all. As per the recent forecasts, the storm will pass a considerable distance from the DR, it might not even be felt, and Punta Cana will be far far away. You can check back with this site on Saturday.

 

[juanita]

10 lbs bag of rice!

Ehhh! Ehhh! Where is the weatherman and its latest forecast on Ivan? I need to know if I should run with all the others and buy my 10 lbs bag of rice! The supermarkets in Santo Domingo are buzzing with all the locals doing their emergency food shopping in case Ivan comes for a visit!! :nervous:

 

[Criss Colon]

Forget The Rice!(Although I did buy 50 lbs. yesterday!)

At the present time,we are looking for heavy winds and rain starting Wednesday night,thru Thursday afternoon.I work in a hospital in Santo Domingo.We will meet again tomorrow at noon to make final plans.We are going ahead with surgerys tomorrow.CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

 

[tired_boy]

We arrived in POP 2 hours ago so i have missed the last two updates , i was glad to see thast the track had moved even further away from the DR. However its sad for Florida if they get poundedn again!