Tropical Storm Ivan

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Dolores1

DR1
May 3, 2000
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As of the 5 pm forecast, the DR continued to be far enough away from the track of the storm to be affected.

See http://www.intellicast.com/Local/US...harts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none

Usually people in the DR get their weather from sources that do not provide the most updated information, and thus the rush on supermarket shopping.

Of course, since the storm is far away, it should continue to be closely monitored as it gets closer to the DR.
 
S

skiller

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Aug 9, 2004
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HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

...IVAN REGAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM... WEST OF GRENADA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IVAN IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. GRENADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 116 MPH...187
KM/HR WHEN THE EYE PASSED BY A FEW HOURS AGO.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
 
P

Pib

Goddess
Jan 1, 2002
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Latest:
Newest info received:

Expected position Sep 9th at 0200 DR time: 240 nautical miles = 445 km south of Sto Dgo Max winds: 120 knots = 220 km/h, gusts up to 145 knots = 270 km/h. Small effect in Sto Dgo. Track now: From mentioned position passing 140 nautical miles south of Isla Beata then straight over Kingston, Jamaica then passing north of Cayman islands then over western Cuba.

Looks like it'll pass way south of us. Hopefully it wont stop or change direction.

weatherman
Click to expand...
 
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SaltyDawg

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May 10, 2004
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9:00 am Advisories

9:00 Advisories:

Sorry I didn't post yesterday afternoon or evening. There wasn't much to report for the DR (just a whole bunch of devastation for Grenada and the Windward Islands and Antilles) ... and I was traveling. Thanks, Delores and others for keeping people informed.

Ivan is still forecast to pass well south of the DR. He is still being influenced in a southerly manner by the strong subtropical high over the western atlantic and into the northwestern caribbean sea. This influence should last for at least 2 days before weakening.

However, that does not exempt us from a bit of wind and rain on the southcoast. Tropical Storm Watch has been declared on the South Coast from SD to the Haitian border.

Tonight at 2:00am the storm is forecast to be due south of Santo Domingo but a whopping 280 miles off shore. However, the outer bands will still cause overcast, probably drop some rain, and a bit of wind, but negligable.

Then as he angles north west he will pass about 150 miles south of Isla Beata. Since Tropical Storm force winds of 40 mph or more forecast 150 miles out to the north of the storm, the island and Barahona area will see wind, a lot of rain (Ivan is a pretty wet storm) and storm surge with surf of 12 to 18 feet.

Then he is due to pass over Jamaica and head up to cross Cuba and towards Florida. Boy - 3 major storms in a month! Bush has designated US$ 2 billion for aid to Florida already .... and here comes Ivan!

Fortunately it looks like the DR is in the shade of Ivan except perhaps the southwest corner of the country. Not quite so lucky in south Haiti.

But .... Hurricanes have been known to turn as they approach Hispaniola .... so keep your fingers crossed. It ain't over until the storm has blown itself out.
 
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SaltyDawg

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May 10, 2004
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11:00 am Advisories

Not much change from my last post. Ivan is moving on a track of 285 degrees now - he has turned 5 degrees to the northwest since last advisories. This is to be expected for Ivan to reach the forecast positions from NOAA as he nears the DR.

Here is a really good link with nice definitive graphics (thanks to Julie)

http://www.huracan.com/current/st9/

So we wait for the weather to near the South Coast.

Meanwhile, the next storm is already building. Quote from the 11:00am Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic from the National Hurricane Center:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Worth watching.

Here's a nice graphic that shows Ivan currently and you can see the tropical wave developing in mid-Atlantic. You can also see what is left of Frances sitting over the southeast United States spreading off into the north eastern seaboard.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis_east.html
 
P

Pib

Goddess
Jan 1, 2002
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Newest info received:

Expected position Sep 9th at 0200 DR time: 275 nautical miles = 510 km south of Sto Dgo Max winds: 125 knots = 230 km/h, gusts up to 155 knots = 285 km/h. Small effect in Sto Dgo. Track now: From mentioned position passing 150 nautical miles south of Isla Beata then over western Jamaica then passing north of Cayman islands then over western Cuba.

The forecasters haven't been able to predict the southerly course it has taken but I don't mind that as long as it stays the hell away from the DR. If they continue to be wrong the way they have been wrong until now I would start worrying if I lived in Belize. On the other hand, the track it has taken means that we will have to battle the wind and seas once we leave Panama tomorrow. DOH!
Click to expand...
Good thing someone translates weather stuff into smaller words for me.
 
K

KateP

Silver
May 28, 2004
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Sto. Dgo. is getting pelted right now with some very strong winds. I imagine it must be from Ivan's outer bands... How's the rest of the country
 
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KateP

Silver
May 28, 2004
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And it's almost stopped... interesting. Welcome to the DR! Looks as if it'll be on and off tonight. For those who haven't left work yet (like me...) it might be a good idea to get going...
 
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SaltyDawg

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May 10, 2004
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5pm Advisories

Nothing much has changed in the forecasts since my last posts.

However, Ivan is now heading at 295 degrees from 285 last report at about 18mph. This indicates Ivan is heading a bit more northwest and as can be seen from the following track:

http://www.huracan.com/current/st9/

I would say that the current rain in Sto Dgo is definitely "the beginning" and is due to the outer bands of Ivan nearing the DR and can be seen clearly in this satellite image:

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis_east.html

Since Ivan is still 380 miles away from Santo Domingo I guess that kind of shows the magnitude of this Cat 4 storm we are dealing with.

If anybody is awake between midnight and 5am, please let us know what you are experiencing and what it sounds like!

Stay out of the wind and rain you Sto Domingoers! Good luck.
 
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KateP

Silver
May 28, 2004
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8:00am in Sto. Dgo. shows pretty much clear skies and relatively nice weather. A bit of a breeze blowing and if I didn't know where Ivan was and this weren't September, I'd say that it looks like a November morning...

DR residents, please don't let your guard down just yet, we might still be getting a few "gifts" from Ivan...

Have a nice day!
 
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SaltyDawg

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May 10, 2004
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8:00 am Advisories

At 8:00 am Ivan was 300 miles due south of Santo Domingo. As you can see from local reports, relatively peaceful. The outer bands are still touching the South Coast but not much weather is being experienced there.

Ivan is now a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 160mph and 200mph winds measured in the eye wall. His track is still 295 or slightly north of west (270), but she has slowed down to about 15 mph which probably contributed to his intensification. So, he is still headed for Jamaica and forecast to go over Cuba and head for Florida. Here's a nice picture as of 8:45am this morning.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_sat.html

So .... it looks like Ivan is almost past the DR and today should tell the story. He will be passing Isla Beata about 2:00pm this afternoon about 200 miles offshore. Don't go to sleep yet, though, as Ivan has a ways to go to leave the Caribbean.
 
D

Dolores1

DR1
May 3, 2000
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Also see http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/ivantrack_adv28.gif

If this track brings the hurricane to Florida, no one will ever be able to say that hurricanes don't hit in the same place. Three hurricanes in less than 30 days!

I think the US government will now do something about making a major contribution to lower global warming that the UN Climate Institute has been urging. The warmer waters of the Caribbean are becoming fertile ground to breed these monsters as dr1 travel news had reported at the start of the hurricane season. See http://dr1.com/travelnews/archive/2004/tnews062904.html

Expect insurance premiums to go up considerably, affecting insurance in the DR because local companies take out reinsurance with foreign companies. Also would expect construction to improve in Florida to better withstand these storms.

The highrise towers in Santo Domingo, many full of glass windows, have yet to prove they can take a major storm. With another storm coming off from Africa, the rollercoaster ride of this year is not over yet.
 
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Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Two months or so to go before Hurricane season dissipates.... Weather systems rolling in currently are:

RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

From Noaa's discussion.... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STRIPPED THE DEPRESSION OF ALL DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REVERSE IN A DAY OR SO IT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER 25C WATER IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING CONVECTION EXCEPT IN SHORT SPURTS.

The good news ---- DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

The good news ---- THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
 
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