Tropical Storm Omar ... was broad area of low pressure

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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east of the Windwards .. shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper level winds are not favorable for development but this system is expected to bring heavy rains over the Windwards. Keep an eye on it as it travels west at 10 miles per hour.
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Good, it is getting dry around here!!!

Just today I was thinking how quiet it has been...not much happening...

Thanks Chris.

HB
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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good morning DR forum world.
good watch Chris.
i am looking on those clouds getting their act together since 2 days, too.
most weather sites just mention Invest 97 on midhighway, but the conditions will not allow development, i say it wanders around there for some days and goes to day mid atlantic NW to it's actual position.
the rainloads over the windwards are the ones to watch, yes, surroundings are bad for development, but it is a lot of rain even without development. let's see what track shows up after it passed over the islands there and what will be left to develop when entering the caribbean Sea waters.
in case of the east the only danger zone for development would be a upcoming disturbance east of puerto rico/virgin islands, but nothing there actually.
the highest possibilities by actual condions would be a formation over the SW caribbean Sea, usually no threat for Hispaniola.
so let;s go on and watch the rain over the windwards.
here on the east we are today again completely calm and quiet, even offshore sea is flat like a lagoon.
HB,
David and Anne are coming in nov 8th, are you over here too in PC for a visit?
would be nice to finally meet.
Mike

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Hillbilly

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Oh, so since this morning #1 has become #2 and #2 is now #1 and orange (with a medium chance of getting organized.)

This could maybe get interesting.

Nice work, fellas.

HB
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Yeah, my spine keeps getting the chills and my nightmares are filled with these systems with no names crawling slowly closer ... and stalling out and raining and raining and raining ...
 

MikeFisher

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that's what nobody often do,
raining and coming out of nothing, no winds ahead of them.
97 has some chances to develop, but it is 2 in one, 2 circulation areas, that hinders development/slows such down, and the track is anyways very most likely towards open atlanticon it's northwest, the so named hurricane graveyard.
let's dig it in, lol.
we had the first rainfalls on the east today, short showers first, some a lil longer showers later afternoon, still isolated by areas, but what is hanger over the klittle antilles and also over puerto rico does not predict a very funny weekend.
it is rained, it is slow, it is a fu... noname nobody, i hate that grap.
what i like less is that the computer models stick since severl days and still to their forecast of a developing subtropical storm north of puerto rico, with that waterloads around who are now still south but slowly moving upwards on the maps such a subtropical storm could gain big waterloads for a very wide area.
we are actually on 16 consecutive sunshine days on the east, all is very dry, sea is very calm and hot, that's not nice.
the conditions in the southern caribbean look similar, we may get numbers or even names during next week.
let's enjoy the weekend, just a bit more than usual rain can be handled, the garden needs it, but NOT MORE.
Mike

btw Chris,
did something happen with the DR Bord today??
i could not get access to the bord til late afternoon from none of my computers, while the internet was working fine with weather maps and other websites.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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the last hours i watch i nice change in the movement of the rainloads which cover the lesser antilles from south to north completely.
it does not seem to come closer, westwards, just towards the north.
we are nearly clear here and it is clear over most parts of puerto rico.
but on the other hand i know of course that the infrared shots over night do not show not nearly the details than the visual daytime sat shots do.
and we have the next number up,
98L,
the southeast corner of the caribbean,
that could associate with the waterloads we have up, too.
the disturbance like movements started down in the SE and are still there, but if we get something developed there it would pull that water together.
we have to watch the next 10-15 hrs very closely,
can't wait for the dailight to get visual sat shots.
if that stuff hinders each others in case of forward movement could provide a huge tropical wave nearly standing still and raining more than i praid for the garden.
97 stears like expected more northwards towards the graveyard, looks pretty much like it will develop before dying, but at least far of any landside.
Mike
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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they will be one.
the disturbance in the southeast caribbean sea marked 98L shows stronger activities, so the rain get pulled down there and that 98L should soon start a circulation and move all that wateroads around it.
tracks of such invests are hard to predict, they move very slow, sometimes stand still, they can change their track from 1 hrs to an other.
from the location where the storm activity is now a northward track would be usual,NNW, that would bring by midweek a lot of rain over puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
what is the biggest unknown factor in the forecast game about 98L is the predicted upcoming subtropical disturbance/storm north of Puerto Rico. that disturbance is a piece of the Jetstream, breaking of and is expected to get placed north of PR. that disturbance with a counterclockwise outflow would pull the 98 towards it, so than more eastwards that will appear than farther from us the center of rainy 98L would pass away.
but that's a forecast of a upcoming subtropical disturbance by computers models which is still not visible nowhere.
without those computer predictions, just by the actual situation and the surrounding conditions, i would say 98L collects those clouds, starts to show spiral bands the next 48hrs and moves northwestwards, and that would bring rain over Hispaniola.
HB,
the numbers on that NOA map are not meant as names, like the number 98L, which will stay the same for that disturbance until it's gone or develops in a tropical depresion and get's a Tropical Depression number or increases in a tropical storm and get's that name.
the numeration 1.2.3.. on that map is only used to differ between several disturbances present on the map.
on the website of the National Hurricane Center where i copied the map from they show under the map the 4 times per day updated descritption and outlook, so to make clear which description is for what piece of clouds on the map, they use that numeration. it get's actualized usually around 2PM, 8PM, 2AM and 8AM
Mike
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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This system is still drifting West-NorthWestward. We've seen no real development of this system as it is up against some upper-level Southwesterly winds and up to now, the winds were winning. However, this is changing and within the next 12 to 24 hours the expectation is that the system will become a tropical depression. There is a recon flight planned for today as obviously there is not good consistent data as to this weather system's intentions.

So, the system is still drifting and we cannot really say how fast and when it will be close to the DR. Looking at the satellite views, it looks to be fairly south already to my eye. We?ll update after the recon flight data is available. </pre>
 

barbara.w.

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May 15, 2008
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Going Through the Mona

L98 could be become a problem for the region.

The GFDL model shows the system on a northEASTERLY path bringing it just south of the Mona Passage within 48 hours with parts of hurricane force (Cat.1) embedded.
It's then forecast to cross the eastern part of PR with H2 force winds in its eastern quadrants (max. winds around 100 kts; min. pressure 970 hPa).

Let's hope they are wrong with this as this scenario would also very much affect the eastern part of this country not only with heavy downpours but also with TS winds.
 

MikeFisher

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it builds a center just 170 miles south of the Mona Channel.
no forecasts needed, it is right in front of the door.
rain is on and off on the east coast, strong 20 minutes showers,
still some far pieces of the huge cloudcollection located southwest of us.
i would expect it to be a tropicl depression today,
very slow movement, and that tends to the north with a eastern drift,
that would spare hispaniola from heaviest rainfalls and bring it over puerto rico.
while i prefer the sunshine, punta cana can take the water without fear,
no mountains and no rivers nearby, we will not get wind from that one, it is just water, so let's move eastwards. it is the jetstream bringing the 'strange' movements towards the rare east, Chris. i hope that thing is gone in 2 days and does not park around western puerto rico over the mona channel. usually would've been a straight NW run approaching Hispaniola's southcoast. in case of danger throu heavy rains i prefer the strange NE track, more rain for me but much less danger for the island.
chances are very low to see that running as a tropical storm before wednesday, water is hot on near 29C, but luckily windshear is high, si in case it will reach TS status and it's name it will be passed and on a northern move away from us.
the watching during today's sunlight hours on the visible sat shots can provide funny moves, that rain still can go everywhere.
Mike
two_atl.gif
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Barbara: That would indeed be strange movement..to hit the "eastern part of PR" wouldn't you mean the "DR"????? Seems better, somehow.

NANA is gone? She was there this morning,and now, mean ol' Mr. Fisher has taken her off the screen....apparently, it happened quicker than the forecasters thought.

I'm kidding Mike...kidding.

HB
 

barbara.w.

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May 15, 2008
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Strange Course

Barbara: That would indeed be strange movement..to hit the "eastern part of PR" wouldn't you mean the "DR"?????
Strange indeed, but most of the (spaghetti) models agree on a course that would take TD 15 across the EASTERN part of PR (from SW to NE).
Vamos a ver...



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Hillbilly

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wow, like going backwards!!! I do not think I have seen spagetti like that before...

Man oh man!!

HB
 

planner

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It really is strange - I thought I was seeing it wrong.... I dont' think I've ever seen this pattern in any model or historical graph.
 

Chris

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Wow people! that is why I always caution against looking at models without understanding what you are looking at. You're looking at a SHIPS intensity model. It is an intensity model ... it contributes bupkes to direction...

Ay Ay! OK, I'll do a new post on models, what they are and what they mean...

Anyway, this system is now messing with Nicaragua and the next one is following in its tracks.
 
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barbara.w.

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May 15, 2008
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TD15 in Nicaragua?

Wow people! that is why I always caution against looking at models without understanding what you are looking at.(...)
Anyway, this system is now messing with Nicaragua...

So true... :cheeky:


TD15 is not Invest99.
 

quaqualita

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Feb 4, 2002
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Tropical depression fifteen forecast/advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al152008
0900 utc tue oct 14 2008

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for puerto rico and the
u.s. Virgin islands...the british virgin islands...and the extreme
eastern portion of the dominican republic from isla saona to cabo
engano.

Interests in the netherlands antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.

Tropical depression center located near 14.3n 69.2w at 14/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the southeast or 130 degrees at 2 kt
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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what the heck are ya talking about???
Tropical Depression 15 is what been prior called Invest 98L and is in no way a threat for nicaragua, because it is here with us in the east.
the Invest near nicaragua is a new one, but like it is no threat for Hispaniola i leave it out. we are also lining up on the highway.
yes HB,
i took Nana out, it is dying and gone,
but a piece of Nana is left and got his Invest number, but no threat for Hispaniola or any land area, it will also run upwards to the hurricane graveyeard.
back to TD15, the one threatening the lesser antilles, puerto rico and passing very close to the east coast of hispaniola.
i await that system before wednesday afternoon to be named Tropical Storm Omar.
here in punta cana we've been very close to get that one.
but it is drifting eastwards like i said in the posts of the last days.
actually it is drifting exactly southeast, bringing a little distance between the systems rainloads and punta cana, and it will later on get pulled up to the northeast by the low pressure conditions notrth east of puerto rico.
we had rain from TD15 before yesterday, then the rainloads got pulled south east by the formimg disturbance in the SE caribbean corner, now they are to gether as one formation named TD15.
we are mostly sunny today, we will get few showers and they should be very short. we have just some splitter pieces of clouds from TD15 over the Mona Channel. the center of TD 15 will not cross the mona channel.
the center with it's thunderstorms will cross well south of puerto rico, pass very close to the puerto rican SE coast and make it's landfalls on several small islands east and southeast of puerto rico.
hey Chris,
we discussed strange movements of waterloaded nonames who move very slow and in all directions earlier this season, this is one of the examples that small and slow moving disturbances even with TD strength can get pulled to all directions.
a storm formation usually moves towards the northern and towards the western sides, so a NW is the most typical track of storms in our areas, TD 15 is actually drifting SE, the complete opposite.
i don't know why.
i predicted days ago that this stuff most likely will go NE because the surrounding conditions lead me to that conclusion, but the prior and actually still on SE drift i have no explanation for.
stay dry and save everybody.
Mike
 
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