Tropical Wave

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Hey,
that?s been faster than i expected.
the disturbance over the lesser antilles is named Invest 93,
thunderstorm activities set in even under heaviest windshear.
i still do not belive the model?s tracks bringing it straight up on a NW track right to the east south east of Hispaniola.
weather conditions on it?s north and northwest let me still count it to move much more west than northwards, but it?s a fu.. big piece of rain down there.
by tomorrow afternoon it may show some face,
it will not develop much over night,
before the weekend conditions do not favor such.
Mike

(Mike wrote this, not me. I just messed it up trying to merge it with another thread - Chris ;)
 
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Chris

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Approaching the DR now, this wave is producing cloudiness and disorganized showers over the Lesser Antilles, with isolated strong thunderstorms. This wave has the characteristics to allow it to strengthen and it may be a stronger tropical system by the time it gets to the DR. So, be aware that heavy rainfall and gusty winds may influence the DR starting this afternoon or later and that the system may strengthen.
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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he he
Chris,
we know you are not steling others weather opinion,
would bee a downgrade, ;cause your;s are just great.
what's your opinion for the next week,
the quiet time will be over in a few days.
it looks like the computer models read my opinion, too,
today they show Invest93L on a western course into the caribbean sea.
still high windshear, no development expected today or tomorrow.
it will be a hard and tough fight for the system to survive this weekend,
chances are good to get that diasappeared,
so let's see what the shots show on monday morning.

what we should watch in case of possible big boys in the mid range is what left the african west coast this morning, under observations since several days, surrounding conditions will be favorable during next week on a western track.
it is shown in the lower right corner of the shot, not the yellow circle(the circle just marks the rainy one of the lesser antilles named 93L).


Mike
 

MikeFisher

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hi Chris,
now i see why you tried to move my post on the other thread.
sorry, i answered there again about this system,
i did not see this new one you opened about that Trop wave.
maybe you should move that over here and close the other thread, so we do not have several threads about the same formations.
today i disagre with you,
we will not feel influence of the sys today and neither tomorrow,
no big development during the weekend.
i also saw the computer models last night predicting all together a track NW towards Hispaniola, i disagreed and today even the models started to swing their predicted track westwards into the caribbean sea.
it develops very slow due to unfavorable surroundings,
during last night it's size shrinked a lot, because it is raining where it is now and for the moment stopped collecting more surrounding water/clouds/rain.
end of the weekend w should see if it can bring some rain to the southcoast during next week.
it's early,
i name the weekend on this side of the island sunny.
happy weekend
Mike
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Hey Mike ..

This reminds me of the systems that we had last year that strengthened, stalled out rained and caused great damage. It is also the time of the year for systems that hang around and don?t move on.

This one is showing signs of organization, even now during raining on Puerto Rico and even though it is somewhat smaller on the sats. It is expected to be a Tropical Depression today, a recon flight is coming out to check out the system today and it is going to rain on us sometime.

Let?s watch this one a little more. At this early stage in the game, the models do not have much data to work with and they are frequently scattered all over the paper.
 
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Chris

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hi Chris,
now i see why you tried to move my post on the other thread.
sorry, i answered there again about this system,
i did not see this new one you opened about that Trop wave.
maybe you should move that over here and close the other thread, so we do not have several threads about the same formations.

All done ...
 

MikeFisher

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that's right.
actually the sys track is shown as NNW,
but it is not really moving like that, it is much more stationery and rained a lot on it's east and south since days, so it is smaller in it's appearance on the sat shots and looks like it moved a lot north because it's missing the east and south of the former formation.
yes, it will be TD soon and may get TS Kyle.
it's raining over puerto rico now,
it is close, our sunny skies on the east will change this afternoon,
actually we have 10-12 knots NE breeze, and sunny skies
that may double.
when the data of the reconnaisance flight is in this afternoon we know it's track,
it may just run straight northwards over puerto rico, so the rain in PC would be over tomorrow afternoon without a big deal.
it's dangers are not winds, it's water.
on our east coast w are not vulnerable for rainloads,
but huge parts of the island are, so let's hope that one runs north over PR.
back in the afternoon
Mike
 

MikeFisher

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actual shot from 12:15PM today.
shows the water mass.
WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground


i would say such contains at least it's 35mphr+ winds.
still no recon-flight datas available,
still no visible surface circulation,
it's most water is on it's eastern portion.
we had a few drops with very dark clouds on the east when i drove over to bavaro 2hrs ago, few minutes of rain on the way, now again sunny, over the ocean we have very dark huge clouds hanging around.
wind died down at the moment, this water is closing in.
Mike
 
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MikeFisher

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i would say for most parts of the entire island.
by the look of the actual sat shots i would assume that san perdo-la romana-higuey may have had rain this early afternoon.
for the east coast it will start today, yeap.
still sunny,
no wind,
no waves,
but the horizon promises me i will have to move inside before dinner today,
i love to work on the 'puter outside after dinner.
Mike
 

aross

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It has been raining off and on all day here in Cabarere. Sometimes very hard. No thunder and lightening. Sun appeared a couple of times this morning but that was all.
 

MikeFisher

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had to move in rigt away, ha ha.
rain started 2PM,
even nearby no wind down here, yet,
those couds up there move in fast.
wind will come up any moment,
it will not be a short shower over all.
maybe it stops raining for a few time while just on the edge,
but the visual watching promises constant rain for a while.
 

MikeFisher

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my wife is travelling from san pedro to higuey arriving in higuey in around 30 minutes, they drove to strong rain most part of the way.
fridge is stocked,
so i don't have to walk in the maybe rain for some cold ones tonight, lol.
right now the shots show higuey and punta cana clear, yes,
the cloudies are between san pedro and la romana.
and the other cloudies are west of puerto rico,
the tracking for a course is hard,
let's just wait.
Mike
 

MikeFisher

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looks like that one really walks just northwards without bothering.
the little bit of rain we had this afternoon been short and not all over.
it's dark cloudy out over the ocean, but right here on the beach it is quiet and dry.
Mike
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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It is almost becoming a classical pattern as we saw last year. No name, no development, no structure, no definition and yet, when it encounters the big hills of the DR, it stalls out and just rains and rains and rains. Then it get's a 2nd wind and moves on to further destruction.

It will be really interesting to see if this one follows the same pattern.
 

MikeFisher

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i hope not,
actually for puerto rico,
would fill the island to the top.
it is anyways very slow moving, so may stay a while in the area.
the east coast is completely quiet,
very low wind,
but no stars out on Sea, all painted black.
we will se where it is in the morning
Mike
 

Chris

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Puerto Rico has had 10 to 20 inches of rain and it is still bucketing down over Puerto Rico and the Virgins. Yup .. another system that moves very very slowly and stalls out and rains.

Upper level winds are becoming more favorable for development and by the time this system slowly moves across the Mona Passage and reaches the DR, it may be a stronger system. One cannot really determine where the center is, as it is currently an undefined area of disturbed tropical weather. It looks to me a lot more active on the South side, but this system will simply blanket the DR (North, South and East coasts equally) if it remains in its current form. Again, the water is in the tail end of the system.

The East coast should be feeling the effects now. As Mike said, no stars in the sky last night ... because of the heavy cloud cover. This system has the potential to strengthen while it is over the DR and raining.

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg">
 
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mido

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Punta Cana at this time has no rain, very little winds and no overcast but a lot of clouds and it looks dark in the east.