USD/DOP

Jan 9, 2004
9,112
447
83
FYI

The US FOMC is expected to raise interest rates .25% today.

This may put pressure on the Peso to begin to move closer to a 50:1 dollar exchange rate.

With 2 more US rate hikes predicted this year, and without the Banco Central raising rates to protect the Peso, 50:1 could very well be on the horizon before 2018 has concluded.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2 
 

Juan Bosch

Member
Dec 8, 2015
337
20
18
We will know for sure on the .25% hike after 2:00 PM today....agreed on 50:1 by the end of year...
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,112
447
83
Up a .25 point.

Fed signaled a total of 4 rate hikes this year........likely the next two will be September and December.

Peso should begin to weaken....again.


ECB announces their decision tomorrow. It is expected the EU economy still requires more stimulus and thus no rate hike by the ECB.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 

kg4jxt

New member
Mar 28, 2014
78
0
0
So, what has been going on with the rate in the last few months? Since the first of the year, the range of day-to-day variability has been much less, then in March the rate popped up and stayed quite level for a few weeks, then dropped to a new steady level until recently. It appears the central bank was doing some sort of currency control but maybe they have discarded that policy - I don't see any news about such activities. The change in rate the last day or so has been significant - more than a peso on the dollar.
 

reilleyp

Active member
Dec 12, 2006
537
4
38
FYI

The US FOMC is expected to raise interest rates .25% today.

This may put pressure on the Peso to begin to move closer to a 50:1 dollar exchange rate.

With 2 more US rate hikes predicted this year, and without the Banco Central raising rates to protect the Peso, 50:1 could very well be on the horizon before 2018 has concluded.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2 


Let’s start a pool to guess the day that it hits 50:1 as determined by both Ban reservas and Banco Popular as published on their website.
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,112
447
83
Let’s start a pool to guess the day that it hits 50:1 as determined by both Ban reservas and Banco Popular as published on their website.
Rates at both Ban Reservas and Banco Popular will likely lag the real rate given at Casa de Cambios.

That having been said, a 50:1 guess at the Cambio's would likely come at the end of the year.........barring a black swan event........so for an unscientific guess based on nothing other than events as they look today:

1/2/19.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 

chico bill

Lobotomy Surgeon
May 6, 2016
7,032
1,008
113
Rates at both Ban Reservas and Banco Popular will likely lag the real rate given at Casa de Cambios.

That having been said, a 50:1 guess at the Cambio's would likely come at the end of the year.........barring a black swan event........so for an unscientific guess based on nothing other than events as they look today:

1/2/19.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
50:1 by end of August
 

Mauricio

Gold
Nov 18, 2002
5,607
7
38
The banco central is so much controlling the exchange rate for a while now that most of my customers can’t get any usd for their pesos. If you need 20k or 50k yes, but 100k+ the commercial banks will simply not sell you the dollars at the rate the central bank extra officially tells them to sell at. This is doing more damage to the economy than letting the rate slide a bit and have a greater deficit than they budgeted.

It has never been this hard to collect in the past years as it is now. But being away doesn’t help ofcourse. 
 
Feb 7, 2007
7,533
323
83
Most Latin currencies are holding well versus the Doller, but for example Argentine Peso has devalued from 25 to 28 in just a week. That's after a substantial hike in the beginning of May from 20 to 25. Before that, it dropped from 17 in the beginning of December 2017 to 20 in April.

Going from 17 to 28 in just 6 months... Dominican peso is not doing that bad compared to ARS. If mods allow it, I would like to hear Playacaribe's take on why ARS devalued so much in the past 6 months.
 

reilleyp

Active member
Dec 12, 2006
537
4
38
Rates at both Ban Reservas and Banco Popular will likely lag the real rate given at Casa de Cambios.

That having been said, a 50:1 guess at the Cambio's would likely come at the end of the year.........barring a black swan event........so for an unscientific guess based on nothing other than events as they look today:

1/2/19.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
OK, name the peg which everyone can watch online, which we will base the 50:1 Can we watch the Casa de Cambios online?
Your guess is 1/2/19

everyone selects a date. The one who wins gets all the fame, glory, and international accolades.
Everyone else has to donate 1,000 pesos to the Dominican person in your community who works the hardest, is the most honest, yet does not get reimbursed financially as much as he should.

My guess is sooner. August 1st. 2018
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,112
447
83
Most Latin currencies are holding well versus the Doller, but for example Argentine Peso has devalued from 25 to 28 in just a week. That's after a substantial hike in the beginning of May from 20 to 25. Before that, it dropped from 17 in the beginning of December 2017 to 20 in April.

Going from 17 to 28 in just 6 months... Dominican peso is not doing that bad compared to ARS. If mods allow it, I would like to hear Playacaribe's take on why ARS devalued so much in the past 6 months.
Argentina has not learned any lessons. Of all the countries in LA they have one of the worst default records.

They have again, via a web of institutionalized government policies that have plagued the country no matter what type of government is in charge, managed to achieve high levels of debt and slowing growth. So to combat that they at first lowered interest rates and when growth did not materialize, but debt climbed.....(that debt is denominated in dollars).........they printed more money to service that debt.....all the while devaluing the peso........and creating inflation.

This was pretty much the same script the DR tried and that failed in the early 2,000's. The final catalyst for near collapse, including a mismanaged economy, came when it was discovered Baninter, the countries second largest commercial bank was also involved in some shadow banking and there was some serious embezzlement/fraud issues implicating amongst others the infamous Pepe Goico............and its (Baninter) failure would have brought the whole country to its knees......but for a rescue by the IMF.

But in Argentina's case it is not a bank bringing it down but mismanagement and world commodity prices......and now a strengthening US dollar.....................but the bulk of the blame belongs to former Argentine President Cristina Fernandez and her populist social welfare policies, money printing and interference in the economy....are the real root causes.

And the same scenario is also playing out elsewhere in LA.........Venezuela and to a lesser extent Brazil.

Fortunately the DR has done a better job economically than Argentina, Brazil or Venezuela..........but that does not mean they are not vulnerable.............just one of the better houses in a bad neighborhood...........but they still cannot escape some pain from rising interest rates in the US..........and the reason why the peso will move toward 50, not with lightning speed, but perhaps in a quicker pace.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,112
447
83
OK, name the peg which everyone can watch online, which we will base the 50:1 Can we watch the Casa de Cambios online?
How about we use a real transaction, by a real person, who posts on DR1....

That can be accomplished by watching our own Exchange rate thread. The date someone posts when/where they actually got a 50:1 rate can be used as the official date.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 

cavok

Silver
Jun 16, 2014
4,629
513
113
OK, name the peg which everyone can watch online, which we will base the 50:1 Can we watch the Casa de Cambios online?
Your guess is 1/2/19

everyone selects a date. The one who wins gets all the fame, glory, and international accolades.
Everyone else has to donate 1,000 pesos to the Dominican person in your community who works the hardest, is the most honest, yet does not get reimbursed financially as much as he should.

My guess is sooner. August 1st. 2018
Barring some "black swan" event where the peso soars rapidly on the black market, I think we should use the Banco Central rate. Rates at cambios vary too much. Most of the time the rates are below BC, occasionally they go a tad above.
 
Jan 9, 2004
9,112
447
83
Barring some "black swan" event where the peso soars rapidly on the black market, I think we should use the Banco Central rate. Rates at cambios vary too much. Most of the time the rates are below BC, occasionally they go a tad above.
I do not ever remember the Banco Central "official" exchange rates nor bank rates being above Casa de Cambio rates.....it may have happened, but I honestly cannot remember a time.

Best I can remember is that they were the same............but never higher.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
 

USA DOC

Bronze
Feb 20, 2016
1,783
1
36
How about we use a real transaction, by a real person, who posts on DR1....

That can be accomplished by watching our own Exchange rate thread. The date someone posts when/where they actually got a 50:1 rate can be used as the official date.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
.....this morning in Santiago...got 49.36....maybe 50 will be sooner than some think.....
 

estamosjuntos

New member
Jul 14, 2012
3
0
0
49 : 1 from Western Union at Plaza Lama a trusted messenger returned. Three hours before now. Also, that service provided upon request, my to date point to point transactions over a specific period of time.