What will it take to end the curfew?

[william webster]

A friend of mine studies this quite a bit.....
Here's his recent report......... I made the colors
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The facts speak for themselves:

The first phase of curfew ended on 30th June and the second phase started on 20th July.

In those 20 days we saw the confirmed cases jump by 20,569 to an average of one thousand a day with and average of 17 deaths daily and a jump in active cases by nearly thirteen thousand to 27,402 from 14,729. along with an increase in positivity from 20% to 30%.

Only now after more curfew, the active cases are diminishing again and the positivity is dropping at times below 20% and the daily numbers are much lower with more testing too. The cases and positivity is still too high and the government knows it.

Curfew works well for DR now and the intelligent view from government is we need to keep the pressure on, whilst bearing down on where cases are happening through local measures and education.

A foolish view is to cease curfew and see another unsustainable peaking of cases as before and another need to damp down the virus. That would be another disaster.
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If the gov't keeps this up and the success continues, it's easy to imagine a 10pm thereabouts curfew

There is no denying that the numbers are improving -
More testing and fewer cases.....

 

[CristoRey]

100% agreed.

This has taken far longer than I expected it to take.

100% agreed.
Barrio homes are not the plush 2,500 square feet
mini mansions with aircon, cable and fully stocked
refrigerator like some of our fellow posters have the
luxury of living in.

 

[habi]

To answer the OP's question...
Something the politicos don't have (worldwide)!!
Balls!
Cojones!
Eier!

 

[chico bill]

I guess they should outlaw motorized vehicles in that case.

And cigarettes as they kill more per year than Covid will, including almost 50,000 innocents, because of second hand smoke.

So any of you smokers out there who are bitching about Covid and wanting more restrictions to protect you - think about that.

Also think about the fact smoking causes erectile dysfunction too.

 

[NanSanPedro]

Here is an

Here is another fine example of people getting fed up
with this covid crap.

Santo Domingo.- Enforcing the curfew is an increasingly difficult task for the authorities who have to face rebellious citizens.
Flying chairs and bottles, hurled stones, sucker punches, beatings, among other aggressions are a large part of what police and
the military must face daily when they enter the barrios sites of parties and gatherings. On Sunday in the Espaillat slum, police
raided a business that sold alcoholic beverages, sparking a brawl where three men escaped arrest under a hail of rubber bullets.
Diario Libre reports that in the Los Peralejos sector north of the capital, a group of people welcomed police with hurled bottles,
which forced the officers to respond with gunfire.
Source: Dominican Today

They did the same exact thing last night where I
used to live in Santiago. Good for them.

I still hate to see it here as well as in the USA.

I’m wondering if they are among the 81%.

 

[Garyexpat]

A friend of mine studies this quite a bit.....
Here's his recent report......... I made the colors
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The facts speak for themselves:

The first phase of curfew ended on 30th June and the second phase started on 20th July.

In those 20 days we saw the confirmed cases jump by 20,569 to an average of one thousand a day with and average of 17 deaths daily and a jump in active cases by nearly thirteen thousand to 27,402 from 14,729. along with an increase in positivity from 20% to 30%.

Only now after more curfew, the active cases are diminishing again and the positivity is dropping at times below 20% and the daily numbers are much lower with more testing too. The cases and positivity is still too high and the government knows it.

Curfew works well for DR now and the intelligent view from government is we need to keep the pressure on, whilst bearing down on where cases are happening through local measures and education.

A foolish view is to cease curfew and see another unsustainable peaking of cases as before and another need to damp down the virus. That would be another disaster.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

If the gov't keeps this up and the success continues, it's easy to imagine a 10pm thereabouts curfew

There is no denying that the numbers are improving -
More testing and fewer cases.....

William, you obviously believe the numbers, I do not. Even the Diario Libre had an article about 2 months ago quoting the Salud Publico saying 42% of the deaths from COVID were "probably" from COVID. The actual deaths from the virus is very low. More lives will be seriously effected by the closures than the virus.
Explain to me William about Colombia. They have had a 24/7 since March and yet recently (last month) had a big increase in cases. They only get to go out once a week based on the last number of their cedula or Gov doc. The elderly and people with pre-existing conditions should take extra care and all others should get along with their lives. I don't expect the population to tolerate the curfews much longer. I see they have social media efforts against it which I applaud. I expect violence to uptick if this continues much longer. Luckily remittence from the states is picking up due to more of the states opening up but that does not help everyone here and people must eat.

 

[Gadfly]

No one I know complains much bout it (Dominicans). Here in the barrios. No biggie. eventually will end. almost there

 

[Caonabo]

No one I know complains much bout it (Dominicans). Here in the barrios. No biggie. eventually will end. almost there

Interesting. May I ask where you are located?

 

[cavok]

Police tried to arrest a guy in La Cienaga over the weekend for not wearing a mask but a large group prevent them from taking him away,

I don't see the curfew lasting longer than the end of November - December 15th at the most. With the holidays coming up, I think the government knows there will be no way to enforce it and they will just look like idiots if they try.

 

[william webster]

William, you obviously believe the numbers, I do not. Even the Diario Libre had an article about 2 months ago quoting the Salud Publico saying 42% of the deaths from COVID were "probably" from COVID. The actual deaths from the virus is very low. More lives will be seriously effected by the closures than the virus.
Explain to me William about Colombia. They have had a 24/7 since March and yet recently (last month) had a big increase in cases. They only get to go out once a week based on the last number of their cedula or Gov doc. The elderly and people with pre-existing conditions should take extra care and all others should get along with their lives. I don't expect the population to tolerate the curfews much longer. I see they have social media efforts against it which I applaud. I expect violence to uptick if this continues much longer. Luckily remittence from the states is picking up due to more of the states opening up but that does not help everyone here and people must eat.

I have no doubt the death numbers aren't accurate... and actually don't follow them.

The # of cases hold my attention - and where they are.
The number of cases is getting better.

As to Colombia - an unrealistic plan like theirs cannot possibly be enforced and surely will lead to people
going out....IMO
Their plan is NOT working - need a a better solution

RD plans seems to be working however we have yet to see ANYWHERE that another wave can be avoided.

I have little faith in a durable(long lasting) vaccine.
New lifestyle is what we'll get - IMO - distancing and masks

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Read today that a 10% or lower infection rate will need to be achieved to reduce the preventative measures enacted by the govt in this country.

 

[windeguy]

Read today that a 10% or lower infection rate will need to be achieved to reduce the preventative measures enacted by the govt in this country.

That can easily be achieved by reducing the amount of testing.

Other places in the world that were so-called "doing well" are seeing surges. Does anyone not yet see that CV19 is here, there and everywhere to stay?

 

[lifeisgreat]

That can easily be achieved by reducing the amount of testing.

Other places in the world that were so-called "doing well" are seeing surges. Does anyone not yet see that CV19 is here, there and everywhere to stay?

We all get it what’s your point except that we are flocked no matter what? So what’s your plan..

 

[windeguy]

We all get it what’s your point except that we are flocked no matter what? So what’s your plan..

My plan is to take care of myself as best I can. I advise everyone to do the same.
Since the restrictions were put in place in the DR back in the first quarter of 2020, I have been off my property exactly 4 times.
Those were the same 4 times I wore a mask.

The discussion of vaccines is clearly overly optimistic.
Flattening the curve does not necessarily mean the area under the curve is reduced.
Notice the surges in practically every location where alleged "control" was achieved.
CV19 is not going away any time soon, if ever.

Was that clear enough?

 

[william webster]

We all need to accept the new protocol.

I for one, never thought we would be able to cope after 9/11...
and now it's an accepted part of our lives.

Remember walking your friends to the gate to say goodbye?
Putting anything in your carry-on?

 

[lifeisgreat]

My plan is to take care of myself as best I can. I advise everyone to do the same.
Since the restrictions were put in place in the DR back in the first quarter of 2020, I have been off my property exactly 4 times.
Those were the same 4 times I wore a mask.

The discussion of vaccines is clearly overly optimistic.
Flattening the curve does not necessarily mean the area under the curve is reduced.
Notice the surges in practically every location where alleged "control" was achieved.
CV19 is not going away any time soon, if ever.

Was that clear enough?

Now cough three times..
See now we have more insight into the mind of Windy...

 

[william webster]

That used to part of the annual physical exam-

Doctor grabbed you and said - Cough!

 

[william webster]

There will be no vaccine rescue this winter

It would be a mistake to believe it will be safe to wind down emergency economic support this winter


Equity markets have become hyper-leveraged to every snippet of good news on the four western vaccines deemed credible and currently in Phase 3 human trials.


This Pavlovian optimism keeps us happy but the harsh probability is that nothing certifiably-safe and workable will be ready soon enough and at sufficient scale to prevent an autumn/winter second wave, and therefore to avert the risk of recessionary metastasis as recovery fades.


“I think it will be at least the middle of next year before we really have a sense of control,” said Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. Even then it will not be the panacea that financial markets imagine.
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From Today's London Telegraph

 

[CristoRey]

No one I know complains much bout it (Dominicans). Here in the barrios. No biggie. eventually will end. almost there

My former neighbors in La Joya (Santiago)
are complaining. The government is not listening.
Hence the PN getting pelted recently when attempting
to harass the good people who live there.... No biggie.

 

[windeguy]

I have no doubt the death numbers aren't accurate... and actually don't follow them.

The # of cases hold my attention - and where they are.
The number of cases is getting better.

As to Colombia - an unrealistic plan like theirs cannot possibly be enforced and surely will lead to people
going out....IMO
Their plan is NOT working - need a a better solution

RD plans seems to be working however we have yet to see ANYWHERE that another wave can be avoided.

I have little faith in a durable(long lasting) vaccine.
New lifestyle is what we'll get - IMO - distancing and masks

There is no solution. Just various things governments are trying. One does not stop a pandemic by using methods the people will tolerate.
Is all this not yet clear?