Will there be a second wave of the Covid-19 virus?

Dolores

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Japan, Singapore, South Korea were affected by a second wave of the Covid-19 imported by visitors from abroad. The Asian countries were the first to catch the virus.



Now, the World Health Organization (WHO) is optimistic the second wave may not be as bad. Spanish public health director at the World Health Organization, María Neira, said on Monday, 25 May 2020 in an interview with the Catalan radio RAC-1, spoke of forecasting models with many possibilities, from new punctual outbreaks to a new important wave. She said researchers have been increasingly discarding the latter possibility.



“We are much better prepared in every way,” said the Spanish doctor, who recommended “a lot of prudence and common sense” at a “very critical” stage of the Covid-19 pandemic. She asked the population not to “go into paranoia or become relaxed too much and instead to learn to live with infectious diseases.”...
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windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Social distancing pretty much guarantees another wave of infection will happen when it ends. Flattening the curve is the objective, but that is all social distancing will do based upon humans not wanting to social distance for very long. No pandemic has been stopped by social distancing.

Perhaps additional waves will be dealt with better than the current strategy.
 

NY2STI

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Mar 22, 2020
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As second wave? Probably. Maybe even a third wave. And of course the good 'ol no-name, generic seasonal flu (which is typically ignored despite tens of thousands of deaths). I wouldn't be surprised if some people are dying from this virus as President Trump approaches the end of his second term. You can be sure that even a single death will be headline news.
 

bob saunders

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As second wave? Probably. Maybe even a third wave. And of course the good 'ol no-name, generic seasonal flu (which is typically ignored despite tens of thousands of deaths). I wouldn't be surprised if some people are dying from this virus as President Trump approaches the end of his second term. You can be sure that even a single death will be headline news.
There will have another virus from China, hopefully we will all be told about it right away.
 
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MikeFisher

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or it does not come in any "waves" at all?
the "2nd waves" countries are of the first ones infected, 1st ones loosening their restrictions,
so they may be simply the 1st ones who's numbers rise again of this 1st and maybe unique wave.
social distancing keeps the spread lower than it would be if everything would run as "usual/before",
but social distancing does of course not kill nor bring away the virus.
it came and til now it stayed, nothing went away anywhere.
we only slowed down the spread, so our big brains/scientists have some time to get any kind of idea about the thing to maybe find a "solution".
there may be No Waves at all,
it came and it stays.
til now it does not show any more or less presence due colder/warmer months/yearly seasons/colder or warmer temp countries etc.
so this virus may not have any season like the flu, but just work all year long equally.
numbers going up/down accoring to loosening/tighting up social distancing protocols.
our economies have to go back to work, to not kill more than any virus could,
BUT we have to do so with a "plan", under adjustments to our daily life according to our TODAYS knowledge about the thing,
of course to be changed according to any new explorations about the thing.
at this moment the best known slow down effect is achieved by certain social distancing measures.
this does not mean to stay at home prison and not leave your house and the economy shut down,
but it does mean to keep a reasonable distance at certain points, use a mask at certain locations/activities, desinfect certain areas often etc etc etc.
by now we do not know for how many years it will stay or more likely for ever anyways.
our science needs much more time to be able to bring up a masses-ready solution, if ever.
some promise a vaccine as early as this summer or year;s end,
that's of course BS.
a vaccine, to be safe and tested for the so many possible side effects, needs the appropriate testing time,
so a vaccine brought on the market for the Masses before end of 2021, would not have undergone those important side effect test phases,
hence such vaccine could not be named "safe" to be used for the masses.
til such is done, we have to keep the numbers at a time/per day/per week down as good as possible
to not overrun hospitals, to not decimate the work force of a certain sector/company by so many that this sector would run low/shut down due a missing helthy work force.
while at the same time our economy has to come back to ful force again.
blaming any action as taking away my freedom or to be the fault of democrats, does not help anything.
beeing flexibel for the good of others, by the use of common sence, could be a very helpful thing, even today's a almost unknown behavior by humans.
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
There will have another virus from China, hopefully we will all be told about it right away.
to be told about such or not,
will again be a pure Political Decision of the ones who get notice/find out about such thing first.
sad but the way it is.
such decisions by the world leaders are never taken for the best of the people or anything like that,
they are always taken by egoistic own "political/country advantage/next elections advantage> common sense<" deciding points/priorities.
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
Social distancing pretty much guarantees another wave of infection will happen when it ends. Flattening the curve is the objective, but that is all social distancing will do based upon humans not wanting to social distance for very long. No pandemic has been stopped by social distancing.

Perhaps additional waves will be dealt with better than the current strategy.
with very very very few single exceptions,
none of todays alife humans had to deal with any Pandemic like this, ever.
so no pandemic been handled, let alone stopped by anything, including social distancing.
social distancing does not guarante other "waves", it is simply the by now Only tool at hand to "control" teh ups/downs of daily/weekly new infections.
it would be great to have other tools to choose, but til now i did not her about anything to be added to the tool box.
it is all new for todays alife humans,
so we have to be patient and flexibel, instead of shouting out loud "I know my constitutional rights, I don't allow anybody to tell me to wear a mask or wash my ahnds with 70% alcohol containing liquids several times per day, nobody tells me how close i can be to others on the street, at a bar, in a pool, at work ..".
economy shut downs and Curfews have to go away,
but they only can if we all (at least a mayority, to cover for the usual irresponsible nuckleheads) are willing to be flexibel.
the more we do so, the earlier we will have found a "new normal" acceptable for a while under the given Focking BS situation.
nobody knows today what will be next month or christmas 2020.
who would have thought mid March 2020 that there will not be any Easter Bunny 2020, just 3 weeks later ??
Now we have to give by common sence a nd personal flexibility OUR OWN BEST POSSIBLE,
to get the Easter Bunny back and for the 1st time in history celebrate it together with that Jesus Kiddo end 202.
I have a Ester Choco Bunny safed to eat on dec 24th.
hopefully we will have better ideas and waaaay better agreements on this planet about our future life together, with this one of many Corona Viruses.
 
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Ecoman1949

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I’d be more inclined to say the next killer virus will come out of Africa, a Petri dish with poor mobile populations, ravaged by decades of civil war and limited by a lack of proper medical infrastructure. Ebola eventually escaped its African boundaries. Covid-19 is spreading through Africa and may have the opportunity to mutate into something deadlier before a vaccine is developed and spread outside of Africa. I doubt China will make the same mistake twice.

I prefer the word Cluster to describe more infections rather than Wave. A wave, to me, denotes larger scale events like the initial spread of the virus worldwide. We already have new clusters popping up everywhere and quick responses, tracing and tracking seem to be limiting their size.
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Because of social isolation, herd immunity "still far off" according to the NY Times.
2. Herd immunity is still far off
London, Madrid and other cities around the world have only a small fraction of the coronavirus cases needed to achieve herd immunity, according to new studies. Experts believe herd immunity — after which new infections will no longer cause large outbreaks — is reached when between 60 percent and 80 percent of the population has contracted the virus.​
Even New York, the city with the world’s highest known infection rate, is barely a third of the way there, according to the studies.​
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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or it does not come in any "waves" at all?
or it does not come in any "waves" at all?
the "2nd waves" countries are of the first ones infected, 1st ones loosening their restrictions,
so they may be simply the 1st ones who's numbers rise again of this 1st and maybe unique wave.
social distancing keeps the spread lower than it would be if everything would run as "usual/before",
but social distancing does of course not kill nor bring away the virus.
it came and til now it stayed, nothing went away anywhere.
we only slowed down the spread, so our big brains/scientists have some time to get any kind of idea about the thing to maybe find a "solution".
The waves come because the disease that is not stopped because of social distancing.
A wave is simply the number of new cases increasing regardless of if the source is local or brought in again from elsewhere.

When social distancing is relaxed, the waves happen. It is a simple concept.
Waves will happen if there is no herd immunity.
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Herd Immunity is no answer article.

The discussions I have seen puts CV-19 at about 60% infection rate for herd immunity and not the 70% the article uses. That article ignores the fact that about 30% of the people infected have no symptoms, most of the rest have mild to moderate symptoms and the remaining 0.5% die.

That said, herd immunity may never happen. If not, there will be waves of infections over time.
 

Africaida

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Jun 19, 2009
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I’d be more inclined to say the next killer virus will come out of Africa, a Petri dish with poor mobile populations, ravaged by decades of civil war and limited by a lack of proper medical infrastructure. Ebola eventually escaped its African boundaries. Covid-19 is spreading through Africa and may have the opportunity to mutate into something deadlier before a vaccine is developed and spread outside of Africa. I doubt China will make the same mistake twice.

I prefer the word Cluster to describe more infections rather than Wave. A wave, to me, denotes larger scale events like the initial spread of the virus worldwide. We already have new clusters popping up everywhere and quick responses, tracing and tracking seem to be limiting their size.
That one is not even finished yet and you are already predicting how and where the virus is going to mutate ? Mind you Africa has so far escaped the loom and gloom that everyone was predicting.
I predict the next wave will get you. :devilish: