The Mark Penn/Stagwell Poll places President Luis Abinader (Modern Revolutionary Party) in the lead with 47%, former three-term President Leonel Fernández (People’s Force) with 32% and Santiago Mayor Abel Martínez (Dominican Liberation Party) with 19%, writes Bernardo Vega in Hoy.
According to the poll, if the elections were held today, Luis Abinader has 15 percentage points over the next highest rating candidate but does not reach the 50% + 1 to win in a first round. The margin of error of the poll is 2.8%.
Other polls, namely Gallup, indicate that Abinader would win in a second round vote.
The numbers mean that an alliance of Fernández and Martínez could mean a win in the 2024 presidential election.
Fernández was President of the Republic for three terms (1996-2000, 2000-2004 and 2004-2008). He sought to be the PLD candidate in the 2020 election, but the party chose Danilo Medina’s public works minister, Gonzalo Castillo. This resulted in Fernández splitting from the party to form the People’s Force (Fuerza del Pueblo) and running separately in the 2020 election.
Vega observes that President Luis Abinader won the 2020 election with 52.52%. His popularity has dropped only 5.5% despite the difficulties in dealing with Covid-19 and the imported inflation resulting from the Ukraine war and high oil prices.
Vega says the poll reveals that Luis Abinader is more prevalent among men and those over 35, while Leonel Fernandez is more prevalent among women and young people.
He says those proclaiming themselves as independents represent 33% of the voters. The vote of these independents is 41% in favor of Abinader, 34% in favor of Fernandez, and 23% in favor of Martinez.
Politicians rated best in the least of favorable were Luis Abinader (52% favorable and 13% unfavorable) and David Collado (51% favorable and 22 unfavorable).
All the other 12 politicians have a net negative unfavorability. Although Leonel Fernandez has a 42% favorable rating, he has a 48% rejection rate. Abel Martinez is viewed favorably by 40% but his rejection rate is 42%.
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Hoy
24 May 2023