According to the ITB World Travel Trends Report, airfares are likely to go up. The report notes that “current airline prices are clearly too low to allow airlines to become profitable again”, so travelers should make the most of the good fares while they exist.
Despite the worldwide recession, the ITB World Travel Trends Report expects commercial aviation to grow dynamically over the next two decades. The Chinese market is predicted to expand by around 8.4% annually, followed by the rest of the Asia-Pacific region (6.9%) and South America (estimated at 6.4%). The European market is forecast to grow by 3.4%, lagging significantly behind the expected global average growth rate of 4.9%.
Martin Buck, Vice President of Competence Center Travel & Logistics, Messe Berlin: “The currently unanswered question facing the world’s airline industries is whether price-conscious consumers will continue to drive the downgrading trend we are seeing in bookings, or whether we will witness a return to the situation we had before the worldwide economic and financial crisis began. It also remains to be seen whether companies will limit their business travel to a minimum and how video conferences and other new forms of communication technology will influence travel behavior.”
According to Dr. Martin Buck the recession has already had a positive effect: “The over-capacity of the world’s airline industries has been reduced and older planes which consume large amounts of kerosene have been taken out of service. In the short term a full recovery of demand is unlikely. Describing the situation he added that “flat is the new growth”.