Section 6 : Limitations and Opportunities of the Data
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Based on the numbers found in Table 10, one could estimate the number of registered voters.
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Table 10 suggests that Dominicans may comprise a small percentage of the general district population ranging from 1 to 6 percent
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and an even smaller voting population when compared to the entire eligible voting population estimated from
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Table 10: Percentages of Dominican Constituents Relative to Other Populations in the Top Four Congressional Districts (CD) of New Jersey
| CD |
% Dominican Pop/ CD population |
% Dominican Pop / CD Latino Population |
% Dominican Voting Population/ Latino Voting Population |
% Dominican Voting Population / CD Voting Population |
| 8 |
4.33 |
16.76 |
11.72 |
1.96 |
| 9 |
2.02 |
10.74 |
7.51 |
0.92 |
| 10 |
1.23 |
8.66 |
6.06 |
0.56 |
| 13 |
5.53 |
11.62 |
8.13 |
2.50 |
Data source:
Calculations based on numbers acquired from this study and 2000 US Census.
0.6 to 3 percent. Yet, Dominican-Americans constitute a sizable
voting cohort within the Latino community. Potentially, eligible voting
US Dominicans can comprise 9 to 17 percent of the Latino population within
these CDs and consist of 6 to 12 percent of the Latino voting cohort.
A back-of-the-envelope estimate was used, and compared to previous research findings,72
to determine how this information translates in terms of registered voters during the
Primary Elections of June 2002 and the General Elections of November 2002.
The Primary and General Elections of 2002 were used, rather than 2000 Congressional Elections,
since it is the first election post-redistricting.
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The 2002 data is also more comprehensive and
serves to better illustrate the information we are trying to convey.73
A key assumption embedded in this estimate is that the present calculations do not account
for in/out domestic migration or for deaths of registered voters. Thus, it is assume that
the number of registered voters the move into a CD (from within/out of state) is equal to
the number of registered voters that move out (within/out of state) or pass away. As such,
this assumption results in static migration-death for registered voters in the districts that
were eligible to vote in 2002, but not eligible to vote in 2000.74
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This is not an unreasonable
assumption since, "According to the US Census, four of the top ten cities, with the largest
population increases of Dominicans, are in New Jersey." 75
Thus, the findings should be considered as underestimates.
Again, the shift-share method employed assumes a directly proportional
relationship between the percentage of Dominican voting population within
the CD and the percentage of registered Dominican voters within the district.
Table 11 presents the estimated findings.
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Table 11: Estimated Number of Dominican Registered Voters in New Jersey for the Primary and General Elections of 2002
| CD |
Registered Voters June 2002 |
Registered Voters November 2002 |
Estimated Dominican Registered Voters June 2002 |
Estimated Dominican Registered Voters November 2002 |
| 8 |
327,546 |
331,933 |
6,408 |
6,494 |
| 9 |
320,289 |
321,989 |
2,932 |
2,948 |
| 10 |
308,393 |
311,720 |
1,722 |
1,741 |
| 13 |
285,116 |
287,434 |
7,134 |
7,192 |
Data source: New Jersey Division of Elections
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