| This
report estimates the potential electoral voter capacity of Dominican
US citizens in the United States, at a congressional district
level, and identifies potential statistical relations between
Dominican U.S. citizens and actual voters. The findings of this
report should encourage more academically rigorous studies as
well as fuel incentives for political action. Despite the dramatic
political advances of Dominicans in the US over the last three
decades, there does not exist a comprehensive assessment of Dominican
political behavior in the US. Worse yet, it is unclear how many
Dominicans there are in the country. The US Census has estimated
that 25 percent of Dominicans were“misrepresented”
and were not included in the Dominican count. Based on the cadre
of information available it is reasonable to assume that at minimum
there are a million Dominicans in the U.S., and this would reflect
a need in the community to start educating and including these
“new Americans” into the fabric of the American political
system. This report finds that among the “new immigrant”
Latino groups studied, Dominicans have the highest rate of citizenship
(57 percent).2 Moreover, 80 percent of the Dominican youth (under
the age of 18) are US citizens. This underage cohort constitutes
one-third of the entire Dominican population. Even more remarkable
is the finding that Dominicans are located in every single one
of the 437 congressional districts in the country (this includes
the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico). Lastly, based on domestic
population projections done by the US Census Bureau, it is estimated
that by 2020, Dominicans will be nearly ten percent of the Latino
population and, of the adult Dominicans, 50 percent will have
the ability to vote in the US, if registered. This assessment
should serve as a tool to increase the level of funding dedicated
to educate, orient, and facilitate political participation and
civic awareness among Dominicans residing in the United States.A
closer look was given to the top 100 Congressional Districts in
the United States with more than 500 Dominicans and find that
these include states, such as, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maryland,
District of Columbia, Virginia, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, and
Alaska.
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If the data were corrected
for the 25 percent misrepresentation, it could also potentially
add Ohio, North Carolina and Texas, to this 500-person congressional
district list. The number of Dominican adult citizens is extracted
from these numbers. All calculations are compared at the congressional
district level to the population and adult citizenship figures for
Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Salvadorians, and Colombians. The
number of adult citizens is calculated, by Latino group, and used
to measure voter capacity and the need for voter registration. This
calculation is accomplished by using a shift-share method often
employed in economic forecasting. In this report the US Census population
distribution percentages, determined at the state-level, are assumed
to equal those at the congressional district level. Since 99 percent
of Dominicans (and 93 percent of all Latinos) residing in the US
are concentrated in urban centers,3 this proves to be a very reliable
proxy for Dominicans. Through this research effort it was hoped
the number of Dominican registered voters, number of Dominican voter
turnouts, and Dominican population projections at the congressional
district level could be determined. While lack of available data
limited the research findings, this report identifies what information
is needed so that the Dominican community can become more empowered.
Nevertheless, the envelope is pushed through the reporting of interim
strategies that benchmark voter registration and voter turnout for
Dominicans in Hudson County, and benchmark a cumulative Dominican
voter capacity based on national Dominican population projections
to 2020.For Hudson County we found that while Dominicans may comprise
a small percentage of the general district population, ranging from
1 to 6 percent, within the Latino community Dominicans-Americans
can be a meaningful voting cohort. Based on our calculations, Dominicans
comprised 9 to 17 percent of the Latino population within these
Congressional Districts and 6 to 12 percent of the Latino voting
cohort.For the national forecast count, a three-dimensional population
projection matrix was created that ranged over time (from 2004 to
2020), over annual growth rates (from 0.06 percent to 0.08 percent),4
and over a well-accepted range of Dominican population estimates.Based
on our calculations, the residential Dominican population will have
grown from 3 percent in 2000 to nearly ten percent by 2020.A conservative
factor is used to incrementally estimate the number of Dominican
adult citizens. |
The results
project that by 2020, 50 percent of Dominican adults will be able
to vote. A discussion of emigration, immigration and net migration
rates is also provided. Finally, the following recommendations
are presented for potential national agenda items:
• Include and streamline a Dominican self-identifying
box into the Census and other national/local surveys, and produce
a mechanisms to perform national/local surveys, by and for the
Dominican community
• Request race and ethnicity information at the time of
voter registration
• Facilitate voting registration through on-line/same-day
sign up efforts;6 and,
• Create credible and stable research partnerships with
educational institutions.
This report is an exploratory effort to assist
local, state and national Dominican and Latino-focused institutions
interested in increasing voter registration and voter turnout
of the Dominican community at the congressional district level.
Because of the limitations of the data, this can only serve as
a credible starting point. The findings should inspire those in
academia to conduct more in-depth studies that improve our methodology.
It should also engage community activists to advocate for those
Dominicans that do not yet have a political voice and to lobby
for more reliable Dominican focused data collection, which is
critically needed as Dominicans gain political power.Lastly, it
is logical to assume that sustainable institutions and organizations
ought to carry out the work of incorporating Dominicans and Latino
in the American polity at all levels. As such, support to such
institutional entities is critical, and thus, encouraged.
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