Leonel Should not try to run again

LTSteve said:

Why does his party want him to run for a third term?
S

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so they can keep feeding on the gravy train.

reelection is not the same as a dictatorship as long as elections are held fairly. and respecting terms limits does not equal democracy as the pri demonstrated in mexico.
leonel might be far from perfect, but if you look at what happend last time he didn't run, a case can be made for his reelection. it all depends on whether or not a truly competent and honest alternative would really have the change of running on the pld ticket. if not, why replace him. and as for the moment, it doesn't look as if the opposition would be presenting a better candidate.

He isn't going to run...

A commentator last week in one of the daily newspapers (and I don't remember which one or which paper, and for that I apologize) said something that I totally agree with:

Leonel really has no intention of running again, but he is keeping the option open so as to not become a lame duck president as happens in the last two years of a US president who is ineligible for reelection.

By keeping people guessing, Leonel is keeping himself relevant and in power, and when the time comes, he will be able to name his successor.

Following that line of thinking, the senators who went to see him yesterday and ask him to seek a third term were basically saying that they recognize his power and would like to be his successor.

From what I have seen as one who is not a Dominican native or citizen, Leonel is a very, very astute politician, and he enjoys being president of the nation. He seems to enjoy a favorable reputation among the citizenry.

It appears, however, that Leonel is guarding very closely his plans for the future, and only with time will we know his intentions.

Yes, I read that too - it was an Adriano M Tejada column in Diario Libre and it made a lot of sense.

i don't know if it is possible to bastardize the dominican constitution, as far as i know, it has been changed about 35 times, more than any other constitution in the world.
i understand that the latin american fixation on term limits has historical reasons, but i think that they are focusing their attention on the wrong issue.
the personalistic and clientelistic structure of dominican politics did not, and will not change because term limits have been introduced. and as was demonstrated by hipolito, the election of the wrong president can have catastrophic consequences. i also think that his cronies were so shameless in their corruption because of the term limit. as far as they knew, they had four years to make the most of their situation and than it was somebody elses turn.
leonel has structured the party around himself, this ensures his power, but also a certain degree of accountability in government and party. him stepping down could easily result in turf wars and fractionalization of the pld. in the end, they guy with the most clients would succeed him. he would have the most clients, because he was they guy who promised to distribute more spoils than his competitors. all his clients would demand their share once he becomes president, and this could result in what we have seen under hipolito.
if the pld candidate were to loose the elections, the prd would get into power which is already plagued by the same problem, meanwhile the pld as stabilizing force in dominican politics would start to disintegrate.
maybe this is also why he is keeping open the possibility of another run. this gives him the opportunity to select his successor carefully and behind closed doors, thus preventing internal power struggles inside the party.

From where I sit, Leonel is an effective President and an even more effective politicians. It makes perfect sense that he would maneuver to maintain as much political power as possible and not be saddled with the perception that he is a lame-duck; it's really a very smart, astute political move.

I get the impression that LF wants something more than the Presidency of the DR. It seems to me that he has been attempting to set himself up to be a serious international player. If Leonel defies the Dominican Constitution, that he himself shaped and agreed to, he will loose credibility in the world community and hinder his aspirations. LF and his buddies have already amassed a great deal of wealth and they won't be giving that up when they leave the government. Although nothiing that happens in Dominican politics should surprise anyone, I think it unlikely that Leonel will have the consititution amended and/or run for another term.

Term limits don't exist in places like Canada, UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, etc.... it just seems to be an American centric phenomena.

It's not a dictatorship if the guy keeps getting elected fairly. And to be fair, some projects take longer than 8 years to 'finish' - like for example, cleaning up the DR - which will never happen. Just sayin..

LTSteve said:

Leonel is a very polished leader and politician. I am sure he has the best interests of the Dominican people at heart. Perhaps continued stability in the DR is the driving force behind his political motives. What scares me is that any elected official, who can remain in office indefinitely, runs the risk of representing his own interests and not those of the people that elected him. I am an American and that is exactly what has happened in many cases in the US Senate. Some of those in power will abuse it in order to hold onto to.

Great discussion on this topic! Democracy at work.

S

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Well, of what use is a guy who represents the interests of those who have elected him but isn't taken seriously because those around him consider him to be a lame duck? A politician who can be reelected indefinatly has to remember the interests of those who elect him every four to six years, whereas the guy who can not be reelected can just say screw it, i'm not going to be reelected anyway. What reason besides morals, which won't survive for long when you enter professional politics, would motivate an officeholder to represent his constituencies interests besides reelection?
I think Leonel is far from perfect but he is the best the dominican political system currently has to offer. I also think he would be a much better president if he were operating in a less corrupt political system. Unfortunatly every politician has to adapt to the rules of the game around him, and those in the dominican republic won't change any rime soon.

engineerfg said:

Term limits don't exist in places like Canada, UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, etc.... it just seems to be an American centric phenomena.

It's not a dictatorship if the guy keeps getting elected fairly. And to be fair, some projects take longer than 8 years to 'finish' - like for example, cleaning up the DR - which will never happen. Just sayin..

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My understanding is that the countries you mentioned have multi-party parliamentary systems instead of presidential systems. From what little I recall from my political science class years ago, that makes a difference with regards to term limits. There are others on the board who can better explain it.

Russia has a presidential and parliamentary system with presidential term limits. Medvedev became president because Putin could not run for reelction as president under the constitution. The constitution was respected, Medvedev was chosen by Putin as his replacement, he was elected and made Putin prime minister and with all the power. I'm not sure it made that big of a difference, but the rules were followed.

What I have heard from Dominicans is that there is a fear of returning to Balaguer. He continued to run for reelection because "the people wanted it". The situation is different with Leonel, because he was won his elections fairly.

There is talk that Leonel's wife might be a good successor.

RonS said:

I get the impression that LF wants something more than the Presidency of the DR. It seems to me that he has been attempting to set himself up to be a serious international player.

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I sometimes get the impression he wants to be the next Oscar Arias.

He has also hinted about attempting to create a Caribbean entity similar to the European Union.

I'm really surprised to read that LF's electoral victories are considered fair, when in fact, the last elections were bought with the country's money. His administration took on a large amount of foreign debt, and then proceeeded to spend the money on policial campaigning and buying votes/cedulas. How anyone can perceive that as fair, is beyond me!

The majority of the people is not supporting the actual government. In the last election only half of the people voted and of those who voted only a little bit more than 50 % gave their votes to PLD candidates. That means only 25 to 30 percent really supported the PLD AND these votes where mainly bought.

I'm really surprised to read that LF's electoral victories are considered fair, when in fact, the last elections were bought with the country's money. His administration took on a large amount of foreign debt, and then proceeeded to spend the money on policial campaigning and buying votes/cedulas. How anyone can perceive that as fair, is beyond me!

why surprised...seems every democratic society i've ever heard about does the same thing
new roads... new schools...tax breaks...ect...
then they get elected and then comesthe increases in taxes to pay for the promises or the promises get broken...

the more i read about politicians the more i think i was in the wrong business

mido said:

The majority of the people is not supporting the actual government. In the last election only half of the people voted and of those who voted only a little bit more than 50 % gave their votes to PLD candidates. That means only 25 to 30 percent really supported the PLD AND these votes where mainly bought.

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You how they say decisions are made by those who show up...
Besides, what you said means that even less people support the competition.

Mariot said:

You how they say decisions are made by those who show up...
Besides, what you said means that even less people support the competition.

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1. That's good, the competition could be worse.

2. The competition did not have access to government funds to buy the votes.

If any competition would have enough funds, they can win the next election.

never take out of the equation the 600,000 people cashing a check for public services, they were 350,000 in 2004.