Chantel Expected To Pass Over Island Wednesday

There has been a significant change in the course of the storm projected by the National Hurricane Center this morning. Where this morning they were projecting that the storm would remain in the Caribbean until Barahona, then swing to the northwest over Haiti (a very common path for hurricanes), they are now projecting that it will swing to the northwest sooner and pass over the entire island as a tropical storm.

There are a number of storm related charts on the NHC website, but the best one to see there projected track is this one Tropical Storm CHANTAL

The current probability that winds over the DRll tomorrow will be 58 mph or greater is about 30%. In other words, 70% probable the winds will be less than 58 mph.

Tropical Storm CHANTAL

This, of course, is subject to change.

Givadogahome said:

I'm a weatheraphonicist, I have no clue what any of any of this means, maps, wind speeds, nor nothing else. Could you please just tell me if I need to call my daughter and her mother back from their camping trip?

Click to expand...

If they are camping out somewhere in the DR in a tent or something, I'd call them back. If they are in a hotel, it is not necessary. If it follows the presently projected course over the island, there will likely be enough wind and rain to make camping out very unpleasant and perhaps risky.

Keep in mind that we are dealing only with projections. There may be further changes and this will have to watched.

5 PM Projected Track More To West

The 5 pm projection of the track of Chantel over the Dominican Republic indicates is a bit more to the west than the previous projection. Also, the projected arrival time is later than earlier forecast

Tropical Storm CHANTAL

This is normal. Tropical storms and hurricanes tend to wander and wobble and by morning the track may look quite different than it does now. They also speed up and slow down, sometimes even disappearing and then starting up again.

But we can hope that Chantel continues to shift to the west, lessening the effect of the storm on the DR.

The NHC will be updating its projection at 8 pm and giving a complete forecast at 11 pm.