Borrowing and Hipolito
Hipolito again just borrowed $US500 million to pay the interest on the debt. he just keeps borrowing to pay the debt and it's just piling up.
His chances right now of winning again are good. I have stated before that in spite of his denials, he will run again. He is just waiting for the right time to announce. Depending on how the congressional elections go and the next two years, his chances will either stay the same or become worst.
He can win over Leonel now by about 10 points, but when 2004 arrives he will win by a slim margin. Naturally, if Balaguer dies before that time, his chances will get slimmer as the Red party will become disorganized and leaderless.
The Reformists without Balaguer would have to turn to the PLD for an alliance since they stand no chance of getting the spoils of power without the old man's intelligent strategies.
In addition, Hipolito's power ring will do him much harm between now and the next elections. Scandals will be the order of the day and extreme corruption will weaken his presidency. The only reason he is still favored is because Leonel Fernandez has been too sheepish in the opposition and has not taken advantage of the mistakes.
TW