Lili is Weakening

During the night, Lili lost some of its strength. As of 5 am, the winds had decreased from 70 mph to 40 mph. The National Hurricane Center will send a plane to investigate sometime this morning to determine if Lili is continuing to weaken. In that case, Lili will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

If it moves across Haiti as a Tropical Depression, following the track projected as of 5 am, this will not mean the world has heard the last of Lili. Isidore also was downgraded, then later regenerated as it neared the US mainland. Others have done the same. (I recall Hurricane Hortense a few years ago. It spent days along the south coast of Puerto Rico. A couple of times it was pronounced dead, only to come back to life. So anyone who could be affected by a storm should continue monitoring it until all remnants have moved out of the area of your interest.)

To see the 5 am projected track of Lili http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1302W.GIF

If Center Remains Poorly Defined, Could be Downgraded to Tropical Wave

The 8 am AST report of the National Hurricane Center:

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
TROPICAL STORM LILI AND HAS FOUND STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE CENTER. IF THE CENTER REMAINS POORLY DEFINED...THEN LILI
COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY AND WATCHES MAY
BE DISCONTINUED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 72 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

Little Change Since 8AM Report

The 11 am AST report of the National Hurricane Center indicates no change in wind strength and continued uncertainty regarding the location of the eye. A plane is continuing to monitor the storm, and a decision will be made later today as to whether to downgrade it to a Tropical Wave.

It is not unknown for these storms to weaken, even disappear, then regenerate. With that in mind, the National Hurricane Center now predicts that Lili will pass west of Haiti with little or no effect on the Dominican Republic.

You can see the anticipated track as of 11 am at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1302W.GIF

Lili May be Reorganizing

The 2 pm AST supplementary report (below) of the National Hurricane Center indicates that the eye is now a little better defined. The next complete report will be issued about 5 pm.

See the link in the previous posting for the presently anticipated track of Lili.

...LILI MOVING SLOWER AND GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI FROM PUNTA PALENQUE WESTWARD
TO TIBURON ON THE WESTERN TIP OF THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA LATER
TODAY.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 300 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE STORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND THAT WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS STILL
BROAD...IT HAD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FARTHER TO THE EAST
NEAR THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

The 5 pm Report of the National Hurricane Center

...LILI MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI FROM PUNTA PALENQUE WESTWARD
TO TIBURON ON THE WESTERN TIP OF THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF
HAITI...AND ALSO FOR JAMAICA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN HAITI MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT
THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

For the presently anticipated track of the storm, see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1302W.GIF