Two days at Banco Central-My personal story

Golo100

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Jan 5, 2002
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If you did not take part in the 36% interest rate party thrown by Banco Central this whole week you were not where the action was. The whole nation had its eyes on this great party. The news headlines were dominated by this. I felt good being part of it.

Let me first say that I do not agree with the Central Bank gamble. I still dont understand why they did this. I will double my income for the next six months, but I am sure many others will only get poorer at my expense. But I had to defend my interests. No one else will. This is the survival of the fittest. I cannot worry for the "padres de familia". Anyway, this are the same people who voted Hippo in and will vote for him , or the PRD again. Let them eat crow.

I woke up at 5am for daily exercises to prepare for the party. You had to be physically and mentally fit for this party. I did not drive. I wore clothes fit for a homeless man in N.Y. I took OMSA to Leopoldo Navarro St. to confuse the muggers. No one knew how much I had in my pockets in checks and cash. I stopped by the famous cafeteria across from the police station and had $60 pesos worth of mangu and spaghetti, plus a Rica cereza juice. Then I went to BC door, placed my metal objects to pass the detector and picked up a number...lucky #583!!!! On my first day I was not lucky. They only served until #334. The crowd looked like a Mercado Modelo mess. Except we were all seated, some standing, air-conditioning, coffee and orange juice served by waiters with uniforms. BC staff was selling one certificate per minute. Very fast and furious. I was worried the money was going to run out. My first day they had already sold up to $7.2 billion. I lost close to $25,000 on penalties for cancelling my Bancredito certificate already. But the gamble was worth it. I am a gambler in finances. I figured if I get in, I could recover the losses and more in the 10 days left in the month. I left dissapointed, but with great hopes for the next day. On day two the crowd was smaller but just as maddening. Same routine, except that newcomers without tickets had to get into a waiting list with names. 76 additionals were listed in addition to the 260 with tickets left. At the rate of 1 per minute I figure I would be in by 1PM. I figured wrong, because the lunch hour slowed the rate. I got in at 2PM. My heart was stumping. I saw how smart asses were trying to switch their old 28% certificates for the new ones. They were screwed!!The computer picked it up and they only got the 36% on the excess over 28%. I went to the computer and passed the first test. You had to have a certified check(cheque de gerencia, or certified payable to BC, cedula or passport if foreigner and proof of a savings account to have the interest deposited. The interest is not cumulative. Your money is frozen for the duration...so what??? At 36% they can keep it till the next ice age. Not a fool went for less than 6 months. Who would? Only a nerd. I killed two birds with one stone. I got rid of my Bancredito worries(the new $10.6 billion blackhole) and doubled my income. We all had to pass by two check and document approvals, then to the cashier(another long line) and when you got your receipt for the money you were richer again. Thanks all to the stupidity of the monetary authorities!!!!! It was damn worth it. I beat the system again. The rich got richer, the poor got poorer. F-ck the "padres de familia". Who told them to rally for politicians carrying flags and sh-t!! The whole scene was like "who is who" in DR. I saw celebrities, singers, playboys, millionaires, socialites and even middle class savers with $25,000 pesos mingling together. The Rosarios were there.All the big business names were there. Generals in uniforms would break into the lines and get served first(Where did they get the money?)I even saw an AMET in uniform with a $100,000 check. The average take by BC was about $500,000 with about 1400 people getting certificates. Yesterday I figure the whole $10 billion were gone. They served everyone including the waiting list. The last person waiting outside when I left was Rafa Rosario, who had a sad face. He must have had a problem he could not get in. Some ventured to go out to eat lunch and missed their number called. They lost it all. Others just did not have the will power to be successful and left. Others did not read and arrived with missing documents and uncertified checks. An idiot brought in a personal check!!! Some came in without cedulas. They all lost the gamble. But I am like a Boy Scout. Always prepared. When it comes to money, I gamble with the right tools. Better luck next time to those who missed the great Central Bank Party, the greatest show on earth. This deal will make the earth tremble. This is a whole new ballgame. What will the bank robber lords do now? They can only increase the rates. They tried to take us for fools and lowered the rates when the Baninter money went their way. How sweet is our revenge. Let them sink in their greed. I dont know where this is going, but if I go down, I will go down with the biggies and with the whole country. This is where the buck stops. In the meantime, I kept my dollar accounts and certificates. The dollar is still king.

TW
 

Squat

Tropical geek in Las Terrenas
Jan 1, 2002
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Great ! I was starting to miss your posts...
 

Criss Colon

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Jan 2, 2002
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Lets hope you sound so smug in 6 months!

I wouldn't "Bet The Farm" that inflation in the DR doesn't surpass 36% in the next 6 months,or that the money will be accessable when the time comes.Thats why "Risk Takers" get the high interest rates!I'll leave my money in Cambridge Savings Bank,and bet that the US Dollar is worth more against the Dominican Peso in 6 months than it is today!Sometimes the "Hare"(liebre) WINS the race,but the "Turtle" always FINISHES!!!
CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC;)
 
Apr 26, 2002
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I find the whole thing very depressing. DR1 news today was fascinating - comments about how the technicians in the Central Bank have been replaced by political hacks (I figured that this had happened) and how the IMF may be afraid of loaning money to the PRD government because it might be used for political purposes (forget "might", it WILL be used for political purposes).

In response to the Young Entrepenuers Association complaining about government corruption, the government does not respond that it is not corrupt, or even less corrupt, but rather answers that the entrepenuers are corrupt too and will be prosecuted. Talk about taking the "low road"!

There seems to be no limit to the shananagans. Now I know what it's like to be in a HUGE downward spiral.

If the IMF hold off on the loans, it will be interesting to see what is done to get the money needed to buy reelection. Drugs? Money laundering? Rob banks? (In a way, they're already doing the latter.)
 
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Golo100

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Jan 5, 2002
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Criss

Your point is well taken. Just remember that your dollars at lowly Cambridge Savings Bank are depreceating just as fast as my pesos just sitting there earning 1%, while gas, utililities, cars, housing, food, clothing, entertainment, and education is going thru the roof in the good old USA.

At least we can still buy an apartment in Piantini for less than US$100,000. What can you get in Cambridge, Mass for that much?

I will take my chances in this chaos and not be rich in Kankakee, Illinois.

TW
 

Criss Colon

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Jan 2, 2002
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Make that Streator,Ill.!

But when I bring those dollars to the DR,I made about a 100% return over the last 13 months! THAT,I like A LOT"!CCCCCCCCC
 

DCfred

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Jun 19, 2003
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Golo,

The fact that the Central Bank is offering those interest rates is a horrible sign and augurs really bad economic times ahead. The Central Bank is competing with the productive sector for "organic" money, hence the higher interest rates. But this money rather than create wealth, will just speed up the spontaneous economic combustion the country is about to experience. It is unfortunate that this mess is happening in the context of a presidential election: The spending for patronage will continue. They need to bring some University of Chicago economists to the Central Bank. The CB alternates from printing money to restricting money thru their high yield issues. The DR, I hate to say this, needs the "shock therapy" that Bolivia had to digest, after carrying out very similar, I may add, chaotic monetary policies.
 

Formosano2000

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Mar 5, 2003
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The rates are deceptively high.......

Golo has obviously done well for himself, but for others blindly jumping on the bandwagon, it may pay to whip out your calculator again, especially for those wishing to bring in their US$ to "take advantage" of the high rates.

First of all, the "36%" for 90-day CD's is the ANNUALIZED rate. (or APR, in finance jagon) Which means, you'll get the full 36% only if you leave the money locked up for 365 days. But since the maximum period of the BC offer is only 90 days, the return you get back at the end of 90 days is actually 36% x (90/365) = 8.88 %, not 36% !

(How many of you realized this in the rush to "take advantage" of the BC offer ??)

This is what I posted this earlier this morning in the "Living" section of the message board:

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Before you even think about exchaning your hard-earned US$,
let's do some number-crunching here.

Fact: Banco Central rates are 32% for 30-days, 34% for 60-days and 36% for 90-day CD's.

Fact: US$1=RD$35 (today)

For ease of comparison, let's say you put in RD$10,000 (today's US$285.71) into each CD category
so:

31 days from now, you'll have $10,000 x (1 + 32% x (30/365) ) = RD$10,263 on your 30-day CD.

(you are basically getting a 2.67% return)

61 days from now, you'll have $10,000 x (1 + 34% x (60/365))
= RD$10,559 on your 60-day CD

(you are basically getting a 5.60% return)

91 days from now, you'll have $10,000 x (1 + 36% x (90/365))
= RD$10,888 on your 90-day CD

(you are basically getting a 8.88% return)

Let's take the 90-day 8.88% as a bench mark.

If peso slides 8.88% 91 days from now, it will be at US$1= RD$38.08

This means that if the exchange rate on October/24/2003 is US$1 > RD$38.08, you are basically losing money when you convert back to US$. And if US$1= RD$50 by then, you will have actually lost almost 25% of your US$ principal upon conversion.

(at US$1=RD$50, the RD$10,888 you get back are worth only US$217,76, which is only 76% of the US$285.71 you originally started with)

For anybody who earns in RD$, spends in RD$ and have no access to US$, these CD's might prove to be a good idea as a 8.88% hedge against inflation. But in the long run, if the RD$ keeps depreciating, that 8.88% will easily be wiped out and some by rampant inflation because DR is overly reliant on imports.

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Now, for Golo and others who have a large reserve of RD$, instead of exchaning them for US$ and incur loss, it makes sense to take up BC's offers to maximize on the return of the existing pesos. I suppose Golo and many others already have their safe US$ stashed safely elsewhere (ie. abroad) but live and consume locally, so they might as well live off the BC interests.

Still, it can be argued that they could be even better off exchaging excess RD$ into US$ even at the unattractive rate of US$1= RD$ 35.70 (Vimenca and Nacional's quote today and yes they are now selling US$ instead of insisting on perpetual "unavailability" like before), hold on to the US$ and simply convert back to pesos in the future at even better rates.

Let's compare two scenarios, again using today's exchange rate of US$1= RD$35

1. Converting RD$10,000 into dollars = US$285.71 today
Keep the money in a safe place and earn no interest whatsoever.

2. Converting RD$10,000 into BC 90-day CD and earn back RD RD$10,888 after 90 days.

If US$1 still = RD$35, then the 2nd group wins out by gaining 8.88% while the first group sits on the old pile of money getting nothing extra.


If US$1= RD$40 in 90 days, the original US$285.71 will now be worth RD$11,428.40

(a whopping 14.28% return)

versus the RD$10,888 proceeds from the BC. (8.88% return)


The steeper the RD$ devaluation and the larger the amount invovled, the more significant the gap will be.


So who is so brave as to bet the RD$ won't slide to 40 or worse in 90 days ?

Call me chicken, but I ain't that brave ! ;)
 
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XanaduRanch

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Sep 15, 2002
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Nail on the head ...

Formosano2000, you got it right.

This is a great idea for folks who deal only in pesos and a BIG gamble for anyone who deals in dollars or other hard currencies. Just by the fact that these certifcates are being offered it is almost a given that the peso will slide to well beyond 40:1 to the dollar in the coming six months. I would be surprised if it's better thatn 50:1 actually.

thanks, but I will keep my dollars, change only what I need, and make more I'll bet that Golo or anyone else holding these bonds - all with the added benefit of not having to stand in any queues all day.

Tom
 

XanaduRanch

*** Sin Bin ***
Sep 15, 2002
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P.S.

Still, a very interesting narrative, Golo! You write great stories! I hate standing in lines and admire your patience. Don't stop sending those along, it builds up my courage when I have to deal with 'officialdom' here!
 

Criss Colon

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Jan 2, 2002
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In todays DR1 Daily News!!!!!!!

Peso worth 60% less today than in December 2002!!! I sure don't want any 36% certificates that may be worth only half what I payed for them reguardless of what interest rate they might yield!!! I,m 100% with "XR",I 'll bring down the US dollars I need,as I need them, and enjoy more and more pesos each time!!!!I "MADE" 60% on every dollar I left in dollars and bring down now!!!! Beat That!!!!!!! Of course my Dominican Paycheck is now worth "Walnuts".I won't say "Peanuts" just yet!!!
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Girls giving,"2fers" every day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: ;)
 

Golo100

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Jan 5, 2002
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It makes sense on paper...but

Let me say that the figure of $10,000 is not the best example to use. Try using for instance $1,000,000 pesos. If you take the 180 day certificate(90 days was not the maximum), which was taken mostly by the big boys at the end of six months you would end up with $1,183,000 or approx. $30,500 a month calculated on a basis of 360 days(the certificate norm). US$850 dollars a month or $30,500 is still good money in DR, devaluation or not. Some people will be getting monthly sums bigger than their executive salaries in their companies. I will take my $100,000 plus monthly any day. Only senators, congressmen, chief justices, the president, executives at Indotel and top corporate executives earn such figures in DR. But they have to show up to work. I dont. They have to pay payroll taxes. I dont. They have to pay social security. I dont. Some have to run a business and deal with stinky Dominican employees who are a pain in the ass. I dont. I dont have to pay severance pay, vacation, pregnancy pay and bonuses to employees. I just draw an electronic transfer every month free of these inconveniences while I play in my computer.

You have to remember that the peso devaluation affects you more if you depend heavily on imports, or you have to travel abroad to share your living time or to conduct business. If you look for example at real estate in DR, you can still find the same bargains you used to find before. With the same $2,000,000 pesos you bought an apartment a year ago, lets say in Bella Vista, you can pretty much get something similar. Although you see many prices quoted in dollars, most are in pesos and sold by owners who are in dire need of money. Bargains will increase as the number of personal bankruptcies grow. Those who are show offs and buy new expensive cars will pay dearly. But most who do can afford it anyway.

The big gamblers at Banco Central are just as rich in dollars and did not turn in their dollars for certificates. Some did. Most of these people are also increasing their net worth as their real estate increases in value. Their gold, jewelry and other assets are also appreciating. They got nothing or little to lose, but much to gain. These certificates offer quick big returns. When they expire 180 days from now, inflation will be lower than the 36% rate of the certificate(18%). Even if the dollar goes up to 40 to 1, it will only matter if you do not adjust to the Dominican lifestyle.

We have been used to excessive comfort. It is time we adjust to normal living. Instead of having a maid, a gardener and a chauffeur, drive yourself, pave over your garden and start cooking yourself. Sell your house and move to an apartment to share security and other expenses. Houses are a pain in the neck in DR. Stop driving just for the hell of it. Have a purpose to your outings. Dominicans just drive around just to drive. No planning.

I saw people who flew in from New York, Miami and Europe to get these certificates. I dont know what drove them to this. But they must be having one hell of a time in the good old USA and Europe that they want to invest here. Some even slept at Banco Centrals sidewalk. We cannot all be wrong.

If you had the money available for this I am sure you would have been there too.

I rather play this than the lottery or black jack at the Jaragua. At the end of 180 days we will go somewhere else. I had Baninter and Bancredito certificates and got paid very well. I got my money back without problems. BC is the best gamble in town. Thats why they cant keep people away from their doors.

TW
 

Jersey Devil

Bronze
Jul 5, 2002
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Golo

Once again great work. I think you speak to the
idea of velocity of "dinero" and the fact that
risk is just one factor in investing. I can almost
see those in that room with you waiting for their
turn to invest. Once this opportunity is over you'll
find another one somewhere down the road. The
important thing is to maintain your flexability and keep
your assets growing.

JD
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
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It's a shame

That there were no really nasty reporters there to ask the generals, OMSA and other "Public" figures just where they got such huge sums of money????

HB
 

NotLurking

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Jul 21, 2003
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Re: It's a shame

Hillbilly said:
That there were no really nasty reporters there to ask the generals, OMSA and other "Public" figures just where they got such huge sums of money????

HB

Perhaps they didn't want to be thrown in jail?
 
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DCfred

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Jun 19, 2003
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Let me point out that other countries that experienced similar circumstances-( astronomical interest rates by its monetary authority)-- ended up having to terminate their currencies and implemented the dollar or a brand new currency. I think we are seeing hte start of the endstage of the peso as we have known it.
 

ArJay

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Jan 1, 2002
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Good job Golo! It's a penetrating look at the state of the economy.

Since dealing with the monetary situation leaves no illusions as to the fact of the gamble, this unvarnished truth is much appreciated.

The note by a previous poster that the 90 rate was (only?) 8.8% is a good exercise for anyone investing in a CD that doesn't span a full year anywhere.

Please keep us informed going forward for those investing in the DR.

Thanks
 

Golo100

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Jan 5, 2002
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Another interesting side of this

In the business news today and reflected in DR news note that banks are the biggest investors in these certificates and their reasoning seems to be that this is a better business for them than lending to customers. This development throws a dark cloud on our banking system and it begs the question....what are banks for and who needs them? Why dont we all bank at Banco Central?

I can also tell you why news reporters, who were there in masse did not inquire as to the origin of monies from generals and high government officials at the BC certificate party......they were too busy lining up themselves with the money they got from Ramon Baez Figueroa!!!!!

TW