Leonel: il Capo de los Resentidos Sociales como el!

A

Amory Blaine

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Esto es cierto:

http://www.elecciones-en-latinoamerica.de/repdom2004/zgonz-tav.html

Ese man lo que esta es confundiendo al pueblo! Cuidense!


Check that link out dudes, so you can see that Leonel is a LIAR and he will screw you with his "corralito" plan (not refunding the CB certificates) and he will not be able to govern with PRD dogs in Congress and he won't be able to control the strikes that will set the country in flames and he won't be able to execute tax reform and he will bring his socially-resented maids and chauffeurs to the National Palace. He's a poisonous snake that knows no limits.
 
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deelt

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Mar 23, 2004
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Full of hot air...

So sad...A good mind gone to waste. Do you actually believe that Estrella will win? He is there to split the vote! Get over it and vote purple. If you are not careful you will end up re-electing Hippo...and then we will really be up the creek without a paddle.
Peace

Amory Blaine said:
Esto es cierto:

http://www.elecciones-en-latinoamerica.de/repdom2004/zgonz-tav.html

Ese man lo que esta es confundiendo al pueblo! Cuidense!


Check that link out dudes, so you can see that Leonel is a LIAR and he will screw you with his "corralito" plan (not refunding the CB certificates) and he will not be able to govern with PRD dogs in Congress and he won't be able to control the strikes that will set the country in flames and he won't be able to execute tax reform and he will bring his socially-resented maids and chauffeurs to the National Palace. He's a poisonous snake that knows no limits.
Click to expand...
 
Robert

Robert

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Amory Blaine said:
Esto es cierto:

http://www.elecciones-en-latinoamerica.de/repdom2004/zgonz-tav.html

Ese man lo que esta es confundiendo al pueblo! Cuidense!


Check that link out dudes, so you can see that Leonel is a LIAR and he will screw you with his "corralito" plan (not refunding the CB certificates) and he will not be able to govern with PRD dogs in Congress and he won't be able to control the strikes that will set the country in flames and he won't be able to execute tax reform and he will bring his socially-resented maids and chauffeurs to the National Palace. He's a poisonous snake that knows no limits.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't you be doing your homework?
 
M

mondongo

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Amory,

Would you do me a favor?....would you pin-point which page of which document of which link backs up your claim of a "corralito" by Leonel?
 
D

deelt

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Mar 23, 2004
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Link

Mondongo:
Just a few points:

* This is just an OPINION/EDITORIAL article from Fausto Gonzalez-Taveras a MA STUDENT at Harvard which to me just doesn't mean much....

* Fausto (and apparently his partner in crime, Amory who is also at Harvard)
have put together an tag-team effort to impress you Mondongo.

* Fausto can't deny that the GDP of DR was the fastest growing during Leonel(forgets to mention, in the world, that's right even faster than CHINA) not during Balguer.

* While he wants to give credit to Balaguer, fine, but the fact remains that
during this time Leonel efficiently and effectively maximized returns since he maintain and improved the economy. Note all the damage Hippo has been able to do in a 4 year period to DESTROY and RETARD the country while colluding with PRSC. Had Leonel been as bad why did he not destroyed and retarded the country during 1996-2000, why wait?

* Fausto, erred in his analysis by citing the creation of Zona Francas as an external factor of investment. This was part and parcel of Leonel's privatization policy in his following the Washington Consensus. Moreover, it was this money that he was able to modernize the Santo Domingo, the capital which Balaguer ignored. I think Fausto also fails to recognize the hardline international campaign Leonel underwent to improved DR's image internationally during those 4 years, compared to the embarrasment we currently endure under Hippo as he colludes with PRSC.

* Fausto, recognizes the economic boom, but fails to mention that Leonel actually paid down the debt which Hippo with his collusion with PRSC ballooned.

* Fausto, mentions that it is false that Leonel provided stability for risky investments made by banks. This is were his myopic view limits his understanding that an efficient bureacracy translates to enhanced market valued. During 1996-2000 we did not have to pay bribes. There was an actually functional government! Imagine that! Would a bank that would like to invest want to invest in DR now? No, way, because of the very instability exhibited by the current administration. (RE CAFTA:the US is counting on Hippo to be ousted they are just not saying it.)

* Fausto, erroneously attribute the increase in salary to Balaguer, when in fact this was Leonel's idea to deter corruption by instituting a FOREIGN concept in DR government: Efficiency wages!! This is part of econ 101. If this was Balaguer's doing why were wages not raised sooner, pre-1996, when he had the chance?

* Fausto also fails to mention the fact that Leonel actually DECREASED the size of governement, minimizing BOTELLAS which further increased the efficiency of the government.

It is really sad when a good mind goes to waste. Please don't be fooled.
Both Amory and Fausto should really be doing their homework rather than causing havoc in meeting their families little hidden agenda.

Thank you.

Art?culo de opini?n

REP?BLICA DOMINICANA:
Coincidencias que confunden: la suerte del PLD y el crecimiento econ?mico 96-2000

por Fausto Arturo Gonz?lez-Taveras
Estudiante de Econom?a de la Universidad de Harvard. Cambridge, MA (EE.UU.)

http://www.elecciones-en-latinoamerica.de/repdom2004/index.html?repdom2004.html


mondongo said:
Amory,

Would you do me a favor?....would you pin-point which page of which document of which link backs up your claim of a "corralito" by Leonel?
Click to expand...
 
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NALs

NALs

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Leonel is a nice truthful guy...

He's cousin of one of my Godfather's sister husband. And I met the guy about 1 and a half year ago. Personally, very articulate person with alot of ambition. Professionally he is very intelligent and goal oriented. However, as he states constantly, the opposition which holded most of the legislature during his rule in the late '90s made passing the slightest bill a pain in the a**. What ever bill (and there were only a few) that were passed, simply facilitated the economic transparency and activities in the Republic, resulting in maintaining the impressive economic record of the country. Trust me when I say that Leonel is a very very good candidate. He is perfect compared to Hippo, but a good candidate compare to the other guy. I don't know the other guy personally, so I'll leave it at that. Besides, Leonel won't ever get criticize for talking trash at all time :knockedou .
 
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Narcosis

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Democracy can be such a tough pill to swallow..

But since we are in a democracy we must play by the rules or get ourselves in more trouble.

Elections are won with votes and the majority of those votes lie in the barrios with the poor. It is real easy for the PRD to keep the country on the same populist path unless forces are colluded againts them.

Amory, I agree with some of your points, nonetheless your focus should be on attacking the PRD instead.

Why is your focus on Leonel, the real problem is the PRD. You will only help the PRD cause with your words, which by the way are identical to those of PRD followers.
 
A

Amory Blaine

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Counterpoint

Ok. Fausto and I are right here to counterpoint. This is fun. All our rebuffs are in CAPS.

* This is just an OPINION/EDITORIAL article from Fausto Gonzalez-Taveras a MA STUDENT at Harvard which to me just doesn't mean much....

HA. WE WISH WE WERE MA. WE ARE UNDERGRADS. THANKS THOUGH. BY THE WAY, HARVARD DOESN'T MA IN ECONOMICS. JUST PHDS.

* Fausto (and apparently his partner in crime, Amory who is also at Harvard)
have put together an tag-team effort to impress you Mondongo.

NOT TO IMPRESS. TO TELL THE TRUTH, GUYS.

* Fausto can't deny that the GDP of DR was the fastest growing during Leonel(forgets to mention, in the world, that's right even faster than CHINA) not during Balguer.

OH THAT IS TRUE. BUT IT WAS LUCK. NOT LEONEL. PEGNA COULD HAVE DONE THE SAME. PEOPLE, THE RISK TOLERANCE OF 96-2000 INVESTORS WAS SUPER HIGH. THEY DID THE SAME THROUGHOUT LATIN AMERICA. IT WAS NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT LEONEL, IN ANY CASE IT WOULD BE BALAGUER. WE GREW ABOVE 6% DURING BALAGUER'S LAST TWO YEARS. THAT STARTED EVERYTHING AND THEN THE HIGHER RISK TOLERANCE MADE THE CASH POUR IN. IN FACT, THE CASH POURED IN TO DOMINICAN PRIVATE BANKS IN CHEAP LOANS WHICH THEN SPURRED INVESTMENT. IT WAS NOT THAT SOME DUDE SITTING IN CHICAGO SAID, OH THERE'S A COUNTRY IN WHERE I WANT TO INVEST. POPULAR, BANINTER, ETC... ASKED FOR CHEAP LOANS WHICH THEY GOT. THEY LENT THE MONEY OUT AND VOILA. THE LENDERS TOOK THE RISK OF LENDING TO THAT LITTLE COUNTRY NEXT TO HAITI THAT SEEMS TO BE DOING ALRIGHT... BUT THAT WAS AFTER THEY HAD LENT TO EVERYONE EVERYWHERE. FACE IT. WE ARE NOT SPECIAL, IT WAS JUST THE GLOBAL BOOM. HIPOLITO HAD BAD LUCK.

* While he wants to give credit to Balaguer, fine, but the fact remains that
during this time Leonel efficiently and effectively maximized returns since he maintain and improved the economy. Note all the damage Hippo has been able to do in a 4 year period to DESTROY and RETARD the country while colluding with PRSC. Had Leonel been as bad why did he not destroyed and retarded the country during 1996-2000, why wait?

HE COULDN'T HAVE DESTROYED IT EVEN IF HE WANTED TO. HIPOLITO WAS JUST UNLUCKY, PEOPLE. IS IT HIS FAULT 9/11 HAPPENED LOWERING OUR TOURISM? IS IT HIS FAULT THE US INVADED IRAQ SENDING OIL UP TO THE SKIES? IS IT HIS FAULT THAT LEONEL DID NOT HAVE THE BALLS TO RAT RAMONCITO OUT? NO, RIGHT? BECAUSE HE NEEDED TO GET HIS FOUNDATION FOUNDED WITH BANINTER MONEY. WAS IT HIPOLITO'S FAULT THAT THE CDE HAD TO BE REBOUGHT? I DUNNO, THINK ABOUT. THAT IS JUST THAT START. AND TRUST ME.. I AM NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF DEFENDING HIPOLITO. I'M NEUTRAL AND OBJECTIVE HENCE I SPEAK THE TRUTH. I JUST HATE PEOPLE LIKE LEONEL GETTING FLOWERS FOR STUFF HE DID NOT ACTUALLY DO.

* Fausto, erred in his analysis by citing the creation of Zona Francas as an external factor of investment. This was part and parcel of Leonel's privatization policy in his following the Washington Consensus. Moreover, it was this money that he was able to modernize the Santo Domingo, the capital which Balaguer ignored. I think Fausto also fails to recognize the hardline international campaign Leonel underwent to improved DR's image internationally during those 4 years, compared to the embarrasment we currently endure under Hippo as he colludes with PRSC.


BALAGUER IGNORED THE CAPITAL? EH... OK. WHO BUILT THE TUNNEL OF NUGNEZ DE CACERES? WHO ORIGINALLY HAD THE VISION TO MAKE THE 27? WHO BUILT EL FARO? WHO BUILT EL PUENTE MELLA? WHO BUILT LA LUPERON? THIS IS A JOKE..... BALAGUER DID EVERYTHING.. LEONEL JUST ADDED SOME PAINT ON A HOUSE THAT WAS ALREADY BUILT. PLUS, HE IGNORED ALL THE COUNTRYSIDE. THAT IS SHAMEFUL.
THE ZONA FRANCAS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH PRIVATIZATION. I CAN'T EVEN ARGUE THAT POINT BECAUSE IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
LEONEL DID NOT DO ANYTHING TO PROMOTE THE DR. HE JUST WANTED HIS STAYS AT THE NEW YORK PALACE AND THE PARIS RITZ. IN ANY CASE, THAT IS NOT SOMETHING TO LAUD, THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE EXPECTED FROM A PRESIDENT. HE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING SPECTACULAR IN THAT SENSE. I DO KNOW HE SPENT A WHOLE BUNCH OF MONEY DINING AND WINING HIS BARRIO FRIENDS ON BANINTER'S PLANE.

* Fausto, recognizes the economic boom, but fails to mention that Leonel actually paid down the debt which Hippo with his collusion with PRSC ballooned.

SO WHAT. HE WAS DUMB. HE COULD HAVE ROLLED OVER THE DEBT AT LOWER INTEREST RATES AND USE THE CASH TO THINK ABOUT THE TYPICAL CAMPESINO WHO HAD NOTHING TO BENEFIT FROM HIS PRESIDENCY. IN ANY CASE, IT WAS NOT THAT MUCH THAT HE PAID BACK. IF I OWE 4BILLION USD AND I PAY BACK 5 MILLION, SURE I PAID BACK, BUT NOT THAT MUCH.

* Fausto, mentions that it is false that Leonel provided stability for risky investments made by banks. This is were his myopic view limits his understanding that an efficient bureacracy translates to enhanced market valued. During 1996-2000 we did not have to pay bribes. There was an actually functional government! Imagine that! Would a bank that would like to invest want to invest in DR now? No, way, because of the very instability exhibited by the current administration. (RE CAFTA:the US is counting on Hippo to be ousted they are just not saying it.)

NOW INVESTORS DON'T EVEN LOOK SOUTH OF THE BORDER. IT'S NOT AN HIPOLITO THING, IT'S A GLOBAL THING UNTIL THE US FIRMS UP EVEN MORE. AND THE BRIBES, WELL, AGAIN, LEONEL HAD IT GOOD. BRIBES WENT AWAY BECAUSE PEME AND ACCOUNT 1401 PAID FOR THEM BEHIND THE SCENES.

* Fausto, erroneously attribute the increase in salary to Balaguer, when in fact this was Leonel's idea to deter corruption by instituting a FOREIGN concept in DR government: Efficiency wages!! This is part of econ 101. If this was Balaguer's doing why were wages not raised sooner, pre-1996, when he had the chance?

FAUSTO DID NOT ATTRIBUTE THAT TO BALAGUER. HE ATTRIBUTED IT TO LEONEL. ONE THING IS TO HAVE EFFICIENCY WAGES, ANOTHER IS TO INSTITUTIONALIZE CORRUPTION. POOR LEONEL WANTED TO MAKE ALL HIS BARRIO BOYS NOUVEAU RICHES... IT WAS TOO MUCH TEMPTATION NOT TO INCREASE THEIR SALARIES.... THE POOR CHANCLETEROS NEEDED THEIR GUCCIS AND IT LOOKED BETTER IF THEY "RECEIVED A HIGHER WAGE" THAN IF THEY OUTRIGHT STOLE. IN THE END, IT'S THE SAME THING. THEY WERE OVERPAID.

* Fausto also fails to mention the fact that Leonel actually DECREASED the size of governement, minimizing BOTELLAS which further increased the efficiency of the government.

HERE I AGREE. FAUSTO DID OMIT THAT. BUT IT WENT AGAINST HIS MAIN POINT. ECONOMICALLY SPEAKING HOWEVER, HE MIGHT HAVE LAID OFF ALL THE REFORMISTAS (THAT BROUGHT HIM TO POWER...BY THE WAY) BUT THE NET EFFECT WAS 0 SINCE HE RAISED THE WAGES OF THOSE THAT STAYED.

It is really sad when a good mind goes to waste. Please don't be fooled.
Both Amory and Fausto should really be doing their homework rather than causing havoc in meeting their families little hidden agenda.

YOU ARE WRONG IN SAYING OUR MINDS GO TO WASTE. WE SIMPLY HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS AND INTERPRET THE FACTS OBJECTIVELY AND IN A DIFFERENT MANNER. WE JUST WANT PEOPLE TO REFLECT WHEN THEY VOTE AND NOT VOTE FOR LEONEL OUT OF ANGER FOR HIPOLITO. THAT IS BAD. THAT IS DUMB. THAT IS SAD. THE BEST CANDIDATE IS EDUARDO ESTRELLA... AND I'M NOT EVEN REFORMISTA AND I KNOW HE IS GOING TO LOSE. BUT STILL, THE EDITORIALS HAVE SAID IT, THOSE THAT MEET HIM SAY IT. BUT ALAS.. PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING LEONEL OUT OF RAGE, NOT BECAUSE OF HIS QUALITIES AND THAT IS OUR MAIN POINT.

Thank you.

Art?culo de opini?n
 
A

Amory Blaine

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and i didn't even write this!

I truly want to see Hip?lito out, but am not happy about the return of Leonel. My ideology, which I adopted somewhere around 1994, was that no president that was mediocre or worse deserved a second term. Getting Hip?lito out fits with my scheme, but accepting Leonel doesn't. I rather have a bad new guy than see incompetence rewarded with four more years (and I realize that to many Leonel was stelar, but opinions vary).

Many people see in Leonel a charming guy who's part of the same old politics, only bound to get worse. One of the advantages of the PLD's first term was that the party was small and had a tradition of discipline that helped them govern in order. Like suarezn says, if the PLD grows, this advantage is bound to thin out. Anyway, in many areas this discipline helped the PLD greatly, and PLD followers say that this is the only reason that they got the unjust nickname of 'comesolos'.

However, the party wasn't free of corruption. The PEME scandal, vented out after Leonel's term, is marked at RD$400 million. Compare that with the RD$40 million of Pepegate, and you get some perspective of how the PLD came out swinging in its first term. But it is a testament to the good PR tactics of the PLD and the horrible PR tactics of the PRD that Pepegate served as a more damaging tool. Leonel faced the PEME scandal head on, and was boosted from it. Hip?lito blundered Pepegate like everything else and is still hurting from it. After all, Pepe Goico was involved in scandals in Leonel's term and Balaguer's. A similar case was the scholarship scandal, where some RD$ 100 million in scholarship funds were handled in an ill manner. The names of the recipients of the scholarships haven't been ousted, to avoid hurting innoncent recipients, but the price tag on each scholarship is high to enough to pay for 4 years doing doctorate work at an Ivy League university. Where did that money go? Various PLD officials were mentioned at the time.

El "Comesolismo", as it has been called, had some aspects that were quite illegal. It wasn't just about a small payroll (which was small in persons, not in pesos) that left out workers. The tactics of the PLD breached many contractual obligations. All governments have done this, but in the other cases most people got a share of the pie and kept quiet. Balaguer sorted out many projects among a handful of contractors and cronies (Guin(?) Moya, 'Bebecito' Mart?nez, Pedro Hach?, etc), while Leonel seemed to route all projects through one person, Diandino Pe?a.

Also, Balaguer's cronies handled the easy technical (though profitable) jobs, such as the new Postal Service offices, "La Plaza De La Salud", housing projects and urban streets. These projects are cash cows, easy to build compared to other things. Balaguer still put the complex jobs up for contest. Many engineers got a hand in things by winning legally contracts to build dams, energy plants and irrigation canals. These projects usually involve partnerships between local and foreign companies, and are in consequence more transparent. Many people will dispute this, but the PLD government took steps back in this process, despite appearances to the contrary. One of the biggest companies in electrical contracting today arose during the PLD term and as it turns out, it is headed by a former top official during Leonel's term. To those looking, this is a sign of the same old politics, but sugar-coated. The projects started during Leonel's term are dubious to say the least.

Leonel also failed to boost the provinces, which cost his party the 2000 and 2002 elections. The PLD is strong in Santo Domingo, where Leonel endeavoured to create his vision of "un Nueva York chiquito". Outside, it's quite easy for the PLD to lose ground.

In my opinion. If the 2003 crisis hadn't taken place, Hip?lito could be spitting at cameramen and Leonel would have a tough time beating him. It is only because of the PRD's gross mismanagement of the crisis that Leonel has one cheek on the seat.

In closing, you can still contest that Leonel is the lesser evil. But many people have cause to not be in love with the guy. Mushy 's' don't make the guy Sean Connery!
 
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suarezn

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Amory Blaine said:
Ok. Fausto and I are right here to counterpoint. This is fun. All our rebuffs are in CAPS.

FACE IT. WE ARE NOT SPECIAL, IT WAS JUST THE GLOBAL BOOM. HIPOLITO HAD BAD LUCK.

Don't think it was just bad luck, but bad management. The global boom did help Leonel, but I firmly believe that The PRD would have screwed up no matter what. The fact that every economic decision The PRD makes is a populist one would have done the same to the economy as we're seeing now. Taking tons of loans that will produce no economical payback is just not a wise decision from any government.

HE COULDN'T HAVE DESTROYED IT EVEN IF HE WANTED TO. HIPOLITO WAS JUST UNLUCKY, PEOPLE. IS IT HIS FAULT 9/11 HAPPENED LOWERING OUR TOURISM? IS IT HIS FAULT THE US INVADED IRAQ SENDING OIL UP TO THE SKIES? IS IT HIS FAULT THAT LEONEL DID NOT HAVE THE BALLS TO RAT RAMONCITO OUT? NO, RIGHT? BECAUSE HE NEEDED TO GET HIS FOUNDATION FOUNDED WITH BANINTER MONEY. WAS IT HIPOLITO'S FAULT THAT THE CDE HAD TO BE REBOUGHT?

Hippo has not been just unlucky. 9/11 had very little effect on tourism in The DR. It was just a temporary bleep in the radar. The amount of tourists visiting The DR has increased every year Hippo has been in power, so that's not a valid point. It may not be his fault the Leonel did not rat Ramoncito out, but Hippo also knew what was going on and did nothing to stop it. On the contrary they continued to benefit from the fraud. It was totally Hippo's fault that the CDE was re-bought, which BTW there was no need to buy it back, specially at such exorbitant price.

BALAGUER IGNORED THE CAPITAL? EH... OK. WHO BUILT THE TUNNEL OF NUGNEZ DE CACERES? WHO ORIGINALLY HAD THE VISION TO MAKE THE 27? WHO BUILT EL FARO? WHO BUILT EL PUENTE MELLA? WHO BUILT LA LUPERON? THIS IS A JOKE..... BALAGUER DID EVERYTHING.. LEONEL JUST ADDED SOME PAINT ON A HOUSE THAT WAS ALREADY BUILT. PLUS, HE IGNORED ALL THE COUNTRYSIDE. THAT IS SHAMEFUL.
THE ZONA FRANCAS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH PRIVATIZATION. I CAN'T EVEN ARGUE THAT POINT BECAUSE IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
LEONEL DID NOT DO ANYTHING TO PROMOTE THE DR. HE JUST WANTED HIS STAYS AT THE NEW YORK PALACE AND THE PARIS RITZ. IN ANY CASE, THAT IS NOT SOMETHING TO LAUD, THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE EXPECTED FROM A PRESIDENT. HE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING SPECTACULAR IN THAT SENSE. I DO KNOW HE SPENT A WHOLE BUNCH OF MONEY DINING AND WINING HIS BARRIO FRIENDS ON BANINTER'S PLANE.

Balaguer did do some things in The Capital, but a lot of his projects were just a waste of money with no real benefit or payback. El faro? Complete waste of money...El aquario? nice, but again a lot of money spent that could have been used for better purposes

NOW INVESTORS DON'T EVEN LOOK SOUTH OF THE BORDER. IT'S NOT AN HIPOLITO THING, IT'S A GLOBAL THING UNTIL THE US FIRMS UP EVEN MORE. AND THE BRIBES, WELL, AGAIN, LEONEL HAD IT GOOD. BRIBES WENT AWAY BECAUSE PEME AND ACCOUNT 1401 PAID FOR THEM BEHIND THE SCENES.

Don't agree with you there. Countries with a stable economy and a friendly investment environment (i.e. Mexico) are still seeing large amounts of foreign investments coming in. Of everything Leonel did his one greatest achievement was to mantain a stable economy. This is no small feat and as I'm sure you know it's the foundation and the basis for any country to prosper. For that alone he's got my vote.

Art?culo de opini?n
Click to expand...


I'm not going to answer every snippet in here, but I've added some comments of my own (in red). I do agree with some of your comments, but I also think you should attack Hippo who's the real culprit here. Leonel was not perfect...I personally think he could have done a lot more. For instance, I think he should have put a lot of corrupt reformistas in prison. All he needed to do was support his ex-fiscal (Moreno) and we would have had very little corruption in The DR. Instead he caved in to Balaguer and his cronies. He should have gone all the way with the privatization of public companies (specially the CDE) and not do a half assed privatization to appease certain sectors.
 
G

gmiller261

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Dec 29, 2002
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Just parrot-ing

Very nice read, issues well put.

Hip?lito should not be rewarded for as poor a job he has done in his term, by re-election. To attribute his poor management decisions to ?bad luck? is, in my opinion, foolish and wrong. It is time for a change.

For the other 2 guys, I do not know enough history to comment.

Does anyone know the educational background and pre-politic careers for all the candidates?

Any actors or peanut farmers?

Gary
 
D

deelt

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Mar 23, 2004
987
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And so it goes...

Amory, & Fausto the fact that you are undergrads makes it even worse. The article either intentionally or unintentionally misrepresented Fausto as an MA.
Thus, it is a false claim that taints your credibility. On the MA vs PhD issue...yeah, whateva' that is what all these schools say. One thing you learn in undergrad is all that you learned in economics is false and at best is based on conditional assumptions. Thus, don't pass yourselves off as something you are not.

> HA. WE WISH WE WERE MA. WE ARE UNDERGRADS. THANKS THOUGH. BY THE WAY, HARVARD DOESN'T MA IN ECONOMICS. JUST PHDS.

Suarezn touched on a few of the major holes in your arguments saving me time.

>PEOPLE, THE RISK TOLERANCE OF 96-2000 INVESTORS WAS SUPER HIGH. THEY DID THE SAME THROUGHOUT LATIN AMERICA...WE GREW ABOVE 6% DURING BALAGUER'S LAST TWO YEARS. THAT STARTED EVERYTHING AND THEN THE HIGHER RISK TOLERANCE MADE THE CASH POUR IN. IN FACT, THE CASH POURED IN TO DOMINICAN PRIVATE BANKS IN CHEAP LOANS WHICH THEN SPURRED INVESTMENT....THE LENDERS TOOK THE RISK OF LENDING TO THAT LITTLE COUNTRY NEXT TO HAITI THAT SEEMS TO BE DOING ALRIGHT... BUT THAT WAS AFTER THEY HAD LENT TO EVERYONE EVERYWHERE. FACE IT. WE ARE NOT SPECIAL, IT WAS JUST THE GLOBAL BOOM. HIPOLITO HAD BAD LUCK.

Sorry nearly all the macro indicators speak to the fact that PRSC did not do as much as you would like to process: GDP, unemployment, inflation, etc.
I can produce the number if you like from 1994 to 2003.
Hippo did not have bad luck he had poor fiscal management this is evidenced in his growth of government and wasteful infrastructure spending. Leonel was smart enough to allow private industry to do the work for him. For all it is worth Leonel created financial stability by stabilizing the peso. This in turn also further increased investor confidence.

>HIPOLITO WAS JUST UNLUCKY, PEOPLE. IS IT HIS FAULT 9/11 HAPPENED LOWERING OUR TOURISM? IS IT HIS FAULT THE US INVADED IRAQ SENDING OIL UP TO THE SKIES? IS IT HIS FAULT THAT LEONEL DID NOT HAVE THE BALLS TO RAT RAMONCITO OUT? NO, RIGHT? BECAUSE HE NEEDED TO GET HIS FOUNDATION FOUNDED WITH BANINTER MONEY. WAS IT HIPOLITO'S FAULT THAT THE CDE HAD TO BE REBOUGHT?

I'll grant you this. Leonel could have done more. Even we also need to recognize that he was prevented from also doing more by the PRD and PRSC to be truly effective. 9/11 had MINIMAL to NO effect on DR. This is already known and discussed. You are LATE in the dialogue. Tourism was minimally affected. Remittances in no way shape or form were stalled or decreased. On the contrary as they serve to counterbalance recession by increasing and redistributing at all levels and all sectors.

On CDE...Suarezn answered that better than I could ever have. Thanks.

Amory Blaine said:
> THIS IS A JOKE..... BALAGUER DID EVERYTHING.. LEONEL JUST ADDED SOME PAINT ON A HOUSE THAT WAS ALREADY BUILT. PLUS, HE IGNORED ALL THE COUNTRYSIDE. THAT IS SHAMEFUL.
THE ZONA FRANCAS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH PRIVATIZATION. I CAN'T EVEN ARGUE THAT POINT BECAUSE IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
LEONEL DID NOT DO ANYTHING TO PROMOTE THE DR. IN ANY CASE, THAT IS NOT SOMETHING TO LAUD, THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE EXPECTED FROM A PRESIDENT. HE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING SPECTACULAR IN THAT SENSE. I DO KNOW HE SPENT A WHOLE BUNCH OF MONEY DINING AND WINING HIS BARRIO FRIENDS ON BANINTER'S PLANE.


Suarezn answered v. well much of the issues raised here. Balaguer did everything because he was a so-called democractically elected for 24 years. He better have done something. Evidenced mainly in Santiago. The question is could he/his party have done more and stolen less? I think so.

Leonel travelled and represented the country well internationally. Hippo has travelled and consistently embarrased DR. Everytime I see his behavior or an interview I just hang my head. I do acknowledge that Leonel failed by ignoring the country side. To his defense, he felt the most impact would be in urban areas where the majority of the population of the country resides. Therein lies Leonel's progressive outlook.

Good point on Zone Francas and privatization. I will parse my thought process better next time. Zona Franca improved the economy because it created what is called a multiplier effect. Companies there depended on local infrastructure and industry to fulfill their needs this is the value of dollars being able to circulate in a town/city. Privatization released the government from bearing an unbearable maintenance and operational cost that heavily depended on botellas and a high level of inefficiency. The incentive for private industry to improve efficiency was a start.

>SO WHAT. HE WAS DUMB. HE COULD HAVE ROLLED OVER THE DEBT AT LOWER INTEREST RATES AND USE THE CASH TO THINK ABOUT THE TYPICAL CAMPESINO WHO HAD NOTHING TO BENEFIT FROM HIS PRESIDENCY. IN ANY CASE, IT WAS NOT THAT MUCH THAT HE PAID BACK. IF I OWE 4BILLION USD AND I PAY BACK 5 MILLION, SURE I PAID BACK, BUT NOT THAT MUCH.

Please learn to express yourself with greater maturity it will go over a long way to emphasizing your point. He was smart because he basically had private invested dollars doing the work for him. Thus, the amount of cash on hand was minimal. We don't disagree that he could have done more. It all is dependent on context.

NOW INVESTORS DON'T EVEN LOOK SOUTH OF THE BORDER. IT'S NOT AN HIPOLITO THING, IT'S A GLOBAL THING UNTIL THE US FIRMS UP EVEN MORE.

Now YOU don't know what you are talking about. The idea private industry investors are not looking south is false. Banks are a whole different discussion...

>ONE THING IS TO HAVE EFFICIENCY WAGES, ANOTHER IS TO INSTITUTIONALIZE CORRUPTION. POOR LEONEL WANTED TO MAKE ALL HIS BARRIO BOYS NOUVEAU RICHES... IT WAS TOO MUCH TEMPTATION NOT TO INCREASE THEIR SALARIES.... THE POOR CHANCLETEROS NEEDED THEIR GUCCIS AND IT LOOKED BETTER IF THEY "RECEIVED A HIGHER WAGE" THAN IF THEY OUTRIGHT STOLE. IN THE END, IT'S THE SAME THING. THEY WERE OVERPAID.

I fully disagree! You are obviously not cognizant of the significance of efficiency wages. The idea that governemnt officials were overpaid is erroneoursly given that previously they were barely paid at all...preserving a the habit of a corrupt governance. Leonel should have gone after more corrupt PRSC and PRD folks. You are right, he erred. I am sure your family wasn't hurting...or then again maybe it was and this is why you doing this to relive the good old days.

>YOU ARE WRONG IN SAYING OUR MINDS GO TO WASTE. WE SIMPLY HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS AND INTERPRET THE FACTS OBJECTIVELY AND IN A DIFFERENT MANNER. WE JUST WANT PEOPLE TO REFLECT WHEN THEY VOTE AND NOT VOTE FOR LEONEL OUT OF ANGER FOR HIPOLITO. THAT IS BAD. THAT IS DUMB. THAT IS SAD. THE BEST CANDIDATE IS EDUARDO ESTRELLA... AND I'M NOT EVEN REFORMISTA AND I KNOW HE IS GOING TO LOSE. BUT STILL, THE EDITORIALS HAVE SAID IT, THOSE THAT MEET HIM SAY IT. BUT ALAS.. PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING LEONEL OUT OF RAGE, NOT BECAUSE OF HIS QUALITIES AND THAT IS OUR MAIN POINT.

Yes we do differ in our opinions. The fact is that you are not sensitive or either lack understanding on the political climate and its fall out. To present your case as you have just done is not helping anyone. THe polls have spoken. Eduardo is part of a dying regime. A paradigm shift is required. PLD can do that by increasing transparency and holding themselves accountable. This is something that is foreign in the PRSC, so I would not expect you to understand. To say that you are not reformista when you leverage Harvard's name and Eduardo is blatantly false. My contacts at Harvard think you'll are crazy. These are YOUR undergrad colleagues, not me.

Peace
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NALs

NALs

Economist by Profession
Jan 20, 2003
13,513
3,203
113
Here are my 2cents!

HIPOLITO: what I don't like about this guy the most is his habit of borrowing too much. Because of all that borrowing, the country is near default, the taxes have been increased even in the alcohol industry causing many things to be over priced due to the taxes, and the lending rating of the country has gone from the As to the Cs, in other words, from Perfectly Lendable to pure junk. I know Hipo had some bad luck with Baninter and Sept. 11, but that doesn't excuse him for his rampant borrowing, his bad style of talking which is an embarrasement to Dominicans and a wonderful jokes to our Latin "brothers" who were envying us in 1990s, but no more. This guy is just a joke!

ESTRELLA: This guy has a 50/50 chance of being either good or bad. The problem is that I don't know, thus I won't take that chance by not voting for him. He talks about change, but he doesn't say how he will impose change. He talks about Hipo lowering the prices of things, he doesn't say how is he going to do that. Obviously he is giving the impression that by lowering the taxes, things will drop in price, but how can he lower the taxes when the government is near default? Obviously, this guy needs to further clarify his way of doing things, but I guess it's too late to that now, considering that it's midweek already and elections are Sunday. Thus, MR. Cambio won't get my vote.

LEONEL: This guy did had some luck with him during his rule. True, the global economy was growing during his time. However, it must be pin pointed out that there were many countries that resembled the Dominican Republic that DID NOT benefit from that global boom. The DR benefited from that boom because of the favorable conditions in the business sector created by Leonel. Even after Hurricane Georges, that was a punch that should have knock the DR to the ground, and even like that, the country kept eyebrows up! In addition, He did a phenomenal job in passing bills, considering how handicap he was in the legislature. It was obvious that Leonel's party was going to focus heavily on the Capital the first time he ruled, after all, 30% of the nation's population lives in the Capital. It was obvious that the other place that came in second place in terms of focus from Leonel was the Cibao, after all the Cibao is home to 60% of the population. That only leaves 10% of the population living in the east, Samana peninsula, and the south combined. It's quite clear where the priorities ought to be, in the places where they were focused. More than half the population lives in urban areas, so it's obvious that urban areas should receive more attention than rural, etc. I'm not going to say that he is flawless and there was some corruption, but again, what government in the world don't have corruption?! The case here is not on the corruption, but on the level of corruption and on how it affects the country. What ever corruption there was during Leonel was not strong enough or threatning enough to destabalize the country like Hipo has done. For all those things and more, Leonel got my vote!
 
D

deelt

Bronze
Mar 23, 2004
987
2
0
Here is my take on your cents...

Nal0whs said:
HIPOLITO: what I don't like about this guy the most is his habit of borrowing too much. Because of all that borrowing, the country is near default, the taxes have been increased even in the alcohol industry causing many things to be over priced due to the taxes, and the lending rating of the country has gone from the As to the Cs, in other words, from Perfectly Lendable to pure junk. I know Hipo had some bad luck with Baninter and Sept. 11, but that doesn't excuse him for his rampant borrowing, his bad style of talking which is an embarrasement to Dominicans and a wonderful jokes to our Latin "brothers" who were envying us in 1990s, but no more. This guy is just a joke!


Deelt: Yes borrowing is an issue but the fact that he put the government in the position when he took on that debt is even worse. It's obvious that no one did their homework. Paying out to a few families that consumed 85-90% of the Baninter bebt was not only irresponsible but illegal. For this alone he should go to jail. Again Sept. 11 DID NOT AFFECT DR! Remittances did not stop and did not decrease. Tourism was only briefly affected the ministry of tourism showed those numbers by Oct. of last year.

ESTRELLA: This guy has a 50/50 chance of being either good or bad. The problem is that I don't know, thus I won't take that chance by not voting for him. He talks about change, but he doesn't say how he will impose change. He talks about Hipo lowering the prices of things, he doesn't say how is he going to do that. Obviously he is giving the impression that by lowering the taxes, things will drop in price, but how can he lower the taxes when the government is near default? Obviously, this guy needs to further clarify his way of doing things, but I guess it's too late to that now, considering that it's midweek already and elections are Sunday. Thus, MR. Cambio won't get my vote.

Deelt: To consume energy on Estrella is like campaigning for Nader = a waste of time. He is there to split the vote. The repercussions? Hippos re-election.

LEONEL: What ever corruption there was during Leonel was not strong enough or threatning enough to destabalize the country like Hipo has done. For all those things and more, Leonel got my vote!
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Deelt: Exactly, my point! Transparency and accountability can assist further minimizing corruption. My take on it is that DR has never had an honest government. How are they to know what it really means or feels like when a country appropriately uses funds to improve a country...it is so much easier to categorize this a comesolismo.

I would venture that most Dominicans are into politics because of the monetary returns. That is if given the opportunity they would do the same as the PRSC and PRD have done: the fleecing of the Dominican Republic. What kind of change is this? I am willing to support on a visionary that can inject youth, new blood, progressive ideas and stymie old habits which die hard in DR.
 
M

mondongo

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
1,533
6
38
Well written article for an undergrad.

I read the article by Fausto Gonzalez-Taveras. He cites 4 reasons why the DR prospered under the PLD. I could only find 3 reasons. I am translating and paraphrasing:

1) "Oil prices averaged US$13.5/barrel during PLD. This fosters economic growth and lowers inflation."
==>> Oil prices were not US$13.5 but close to $20. The abosolute value of oil prices does not create in/deflation. What creates inflation is how Central Banks respond to rising prices.


2) "The USA and EU grew at 4% and 3% respectively and therefore that rising tide lifted the DR economic boat."
==>> During Mejia's term, the USA has grown at about 2.5%. During that time, the DR nominal GDP has fallen from about US$20Billion to about US$14Billion. Positive correlation during PLD, negative correlation during PRD.

3) "Dr. Joaqu?n Balaguer left the country in great shape." This is mainly a political statement, so unless we are willing to pour over the data at the Central Bank website, we will leave this alone.
 
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