I hear you. To me, an expert is some one who is paid to do what they do and is regulated by the SEC. The fact that Cid is #1 (according to Forbes) I would say qualifies him as an expert. But that's my humble opinion. NALs has a history on this website that make his "contribution" suspect, and frankly wordy and just plain time consuming. So tread with care.
Regarding the article you referenced, I think I have to agree that all the signs are there for a down turn on the US economy, namely the increasing prices of oil and truly fiscal irresponsibility by the Republican lead Bush Administration. (shocking!).
In light of the never ending Iraq invasion, China's new thirst for oil, we need an expert to lead the economy and has mastered the subject of oil markets. This is an area Bernanke commands. Apparently based on the article, DR-CAFTA is apparantely doing more harm than good to the US, given the severely of the US's trade deficit.
While I am not adverse to Paulson (ex-Goldman Sachs CEO, worth $700 mill +) leading Treasury, post Snow's resignation, he's a political appointee. Knowing what I know about the Bush Admin, his contribution will be deeply WH driven, as compared with Rubin (Clinton) or O'Neil (GWB, first-term) and other free thinkers who were allowed to do what they do best, allow money to make more money. Bernanke is beyond that despite that fact that he has to know how to play the game.
Deelt
PS. The meat of the article you reference is as follows:
An increase in the value of gold is really the same thing as a decrease in the value of a dollar, relative to the oldest, most solid benchmark of all. And there are plenty of reasons dollars should be losing value. Americans have been sending billions of them overseas to buy other countries' products, causing the world to be awash in dollars. The federal government has been spending much more money than it takes in, and the Federal Reserve pumped the economy full of cash a few years ago to avoid a deep recession.
There are legitimate reasons, in other words, to wonder if the gold surge is the start of the crisis that economists have long feared. "The gold value of the dollar appears to be going into free fall," two investment strategists recently wrote on The Wall Street Journal's editorial page, long a home for gold worriers. "What we are facing is a money crisis: an alarming outbreak of inflation and all its consequences."
...
When gold is moving with those other materials, it's a sign that basic economic dynamics are at work. Prices rise when the world's economy is growing rapidly, and they fall when there is more supply of the commodities than demand for them.
But when gold prices spike and prices for other materials do not, Mr. Bernstein says, it means that investors are treating gold as a place to store their money in advance of a crisis. This is precisely what happened in the late 1970's.
In the last few years, however, the prices of gold and the other commodities have gone up sharply. Computer makers are using copper, airplane manufacturers are buying more aluminum and the rise of India — the world's most gold-crazy country — is increasing the demand for jewelry.
And because commodity prices actually fell from the late 1980's to 2002, the recent surge has in part been making up for lost ground. The price of gold still hasn't risen as much, in percentage terms, as the price of milk over the last 20 years.
...
There is no question that the trade deficit and budget deficit are real problems, as Mr. Bernstein acknowledges. "All the necessary conditions for a mess are there," he said. The mess itself, however, doesn't seem to have arrived.
Market Economy said:
Deelt,
No, not more expert that the experts (and who are they by the way???), but it is a precaution to highlight the fact that DOWS' members are not offering investment advice and that those who read this board should be forewarned that what we post is only our personal opinion.
That aside, the equities market took a tumble yesterday. Why? Inflation fears?. Peter Bernstein is quote in a great NYT articles where he explains that the recent runup in gold prices is NORMAL. He says follow the GRIM index. Read on.
Note: This is my personal opinion, an should not constitute investment advice. E-mail me at my personal address if you want to develop a dialogue