Section 4: Discussion of Findings
Population Projections
|
Despite all uncertainties, it is role of Dominican-American leaders to
ask the hard questions: What do the findings mean for future generations
of Dominican-Americans? Our population in the US will continue to grow.
But, by how much, how fast? A three-dimensional population projection matrix
was created that ranged over time to the year 2020, over rates from 0.06 percent
to 0.08 percent annual growth64, and over a well accepted range of Dominican population
estimates: the Pew Hispanic Center, the revised US Census figures and the Lewis Mumford
Center of SUNY-Albany.
|
The latter population estimates also offer a more realistic picture of the number
of Dominicans in the US in 2000, then approximated to be 3 percent of the Latino population.
All projections made from 2004 to 2020 were done using a natural logarithmic curve formula.
This model reflects the dynamic that as socio-economic and educational levels increase there
is a stabilization of population reproduction rates.
|
This model is a good first line estimate for the US residential Dominican population.
Based on population projections done by the US Census Bureau, in 2000, Dominicans, at minimum,
constituted 3 percent of the Latino population. By 2020, this figure could grow to be as low
as six percent and as high as ten percent.65 Table 8 below provides a summary of our population
projections from 2004 to 2020.
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Table 5: US Domestic Dominican Population Matrix Projections
| Pew |
|
|
Rate 1 = 0.06 |
Rate 2 = 0.07 |
Rate 3 =0.08 |
|
|
|
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
Year |
time (t) |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
|
1990 |
0 |
520,151 |
520,151 |
520,151 |
|
2000 |
0 |
938,316 |
938,316 |
938,316 |
|
2004 |
4 |
1,188,056 |
1,241,514 |
1,292,181 |
|
2006 |
6 |
1,336,845 |
1,428,081 |
1,516,388 |
|
2008 |
8 |
1,504,267 |
1,642,684 |
1,779,498 |
|
2010 |
10 |
1,692,656 |
1,889,536 |
2,088,261 |
|
2012 |
12 |
1,904,639 |
2,173,484 |
2,450,597 |
|
2014 |
14 |
2,143,170 |
2,500,102 |
2,875,802 |
|
2016 |
16 |
2,411,574 |
2,875,802 |
3,374,785 |
|
2018 |
18 |
2,713,592 |
3,307,959 |
3,960,346 |
|
2020 |
20 |
3,053,434 |
3,805,059 |
4,647,510 |
| Census* |
|
|
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
Year |
time (t) |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
|
1990 |
0 |
520,151 |
520,151 |
520,151 |
|
2000 |
0 |
999,561 |
999,561 |
999,561 |
|
2004 |
4 |
1,270,691 |
1,298,020 |
1,376,523 |
|
2006 |
6 |
1,432,700 |
1,479,167 |
1,615,365 |
|
2008 |
8 |
1,615,365 |
1,685,595 |
1,895,648 |
|
2010 |
10 |
1,821,319 |
1,920,831 |
2,224,564 |
|
2012 |
12 |
2,053,531 |
2,188,896 |
2,610,550 |
|
2014 |
14 |
2,315,350 |
2,494,371 |
3,063,509 |
|
2016 |
16 |
2,610,550 |
2,842,478 |
3,595,061 |
|
2018 |
18 |
2,943,387 |
3,239,165 |
4,218,843 |
|
2020 |
20 |
3,318,659 |
3,691,212 |
4,950,858 |
| Mumford |
|
|
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
Year |
time (t) |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
|
1990 |
0 |
537,120 |
537,120 |
537,120 |
|
2000 |
0 |
1,121,257 |
1,121,257 |
1,121,257 |
|
2004 |
4 |
1,425,397 |
1,505,077 |
1,544,114 |
|
2006 |
6 |
1,607,131 |
1,743,755 |
1,812,035 |
|
2008 |
08 |
1,812,035 |
2,020,283 |
2,126,442 |
|
2010 |
10 |
2,043,063 |
2,340,664 |
2,495,403 |
|
2012 |
12 |
2,303,548 |
2,711,851 |
2,928,383 |
|
2014 |
14 |
2,597,243 |
3,141,901 |
3,436,489 |
|
2016 |
16 |
2,928,383 |
3,640,150 |
4,032,757 |
|
2018 |
18 |
3,301,743 |
4,217,413 |
4,732,485 |
|
2020 |
20 |
3,722,704 |
4,886,218 |
5,553,622 |
*The part in bold is middle-of-road scenario
|
Nevertheless, the table above is only half of the picture, because net international migration rates
must also be included in these figures. That is, there is a need to know the difference
between immigration and emigration numbers for any specific year.
|
While immigration values can be estimated based on entry with assistance of the Bureau of Citizenship
and Immigration Services (BCIS, formerly known as INS),
emigration rates are much more difficult to estimate.
|
According to the US Census Bureau, "little is known about the actual level of US emigration,
making it one of the most difficult components of net international migration to estimate."66
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