Section 4: Discussion of Findings
|
The publicly available Census Bureau migration tables do not provide net international
immigration estimates for 2004 through 2020.
Hence, the projection figures were not adjusted for immigrants.
Yet, what is known is that from 1990 to 2002, an average of 3.5 percent per
year of all newly admitted immigrants where from the Dominican Republic.67
The most recent study on emigration, done by Mulder, Guzman and Brittingham, e
stimates that from 1980-1990 Dominicans emigrated at a rate of 2,860 per year, 0.01
percent of total emigrants. 68 The net Dominican migration to the US in 1990 was 7.7%.
The latter is a rough net migration estimate based on the 1990 Census data and the
1990 BCIS data for in and out migration.69
|
Mulder et al were unable to produce reliable 1990-2000 foreign-born emigration estimates.
Despite the authors inability to determine if the assumed flow of foreign-born is realistic,
the data produced is the most recent and the most reliable data available.70 Furthermore,
Mulder et al indicate that thorough analysis and examination of the methodologies and the
characteristics estimates used still needs to be done.
Since the number of those admitted to the country can vary significantly per year it is
difficult to estimate migration numbers, especially after the 9/11 tragedy,
the implication these numbers have on US immigration policy, and the economic
state of the Dominican Republic. Thus, it is anyone’s guess how many Dominicans
will be forced to immigrate and allowed to remain in the US in search for a better quality of life.
|
A middle-of -the-road population projection scenario is used to estimate the
number of potential voters. This scenario is the US Census data projection
estimate under the revised Census figures, with an annual population growth rate of 0.07
(i.e., from 1990 to 2000). Based on immigration data from 1990 to 2000,
Dominicans have been getting naturalized in large numbers (when compared to pre-1990 figures),
at rates ranging from 1 to 3 percent per year of the total US Dominican population.
Also, 30 percent of the Dominican population is under the age of 18, of which nearly
80 percent of them are citizens. A conservative rate of 1.5 percent is used to estimate
how fast the adult citizen population will increase. More specifically, 1.5
percent represents the rate at which both a number of Dominicans turn 18 years of age
and/or become naturalized. Table 6 below shows us the results. Note the percentage of
adult citizens derived in this study was used as the base figure.
|
Table 6: Estimated Number of Adult Dominican-American Citizens by 2020
| Year |
Dominican Population |
% Adult Dominican Citizen |
No. of Adult Dominican Citizens |
Two-year Increase in Dominican Adult Citizens* |
| 2004 |
1,298,020 |
38.5 |
499,738 |
N/A |
| 2006 |
1,479,167 |
40.0 |
591,667 |
91,929 |
| 2008 |
1,685,595 |
41.5 |
699,522 |
107,855 |
| 2010 |
1,920,831 |
43.0 |
825,957 |
126,435 |
| 2012 |
2,188,896 |
44.5 |
974,059 |
148,102 |
| 2014 |
2,494,371 |
46.0 |
1,147,411 |
173,352 |
| 2016 |
2,842,478 |
47.5 |
1,350,177 |
202,766 |
| 2018 |
3,239,165 |
49.0 |
1,587,191 |
237,014 |
| 2020 |
3,691,212 |
50.5 |
1,864,062 |
276,871 |
| % Citizen starts at 57%; adult citizen at 34% (in 2000) |
* This value is calculated by subtracting the current year’s entry number Adult Dominican Citizen by the previous entry of the same.
Despite the lack of statistical rigor used in creating the estimates in Table 6,
this is a conservative estimate given of the number of potential Dominican US Citizens.
This further point is reinforced if children born in the US to undocumented immigrants
were included in the estimate. Thus, if assumptions hold as well as the projection model
used then one can estimate that by 2020, one out of every two Dominicans, in the current
domestic population, will be a US citizen eligible to vote in the US, if registered.
Summary
In this section the findings of this study are discussed.
One of main results is the continued expansion of Dominicans throughout the United States.
|
Dominicans reside in all 437 Congressional Districts and of these CDs almost a quarter of
have a sizeable population of 500 or more. However, population and adult citizenship are
not be directly correlated among the congressional districts as evidenced within the top 25 districts.
Also, Dominicans generally reside in districts that held non-competitive congressional races;
thus, they have not yet had the opportunity to serve as the decisive vote in close elections.
The incumbents have won all the congressional races, in mainland US, by an overwhelming majority vote.
However, what is interesting is that the congressional districts where Dominicans could potentially
have the most influence as Latinos are not necessarily where most Dominicans are located as is
the case of Rhode Island’s District 2 and Massachusetts’ Districts 5 and 6.
|
Dominican-Americans will continue to grow as a community.
Thus, an accurate census count and accurate population projections are ideal for better planning of
this community’s needs. Based on a simple logarithmic formula, a three-dimensional
population projection matrix was created to estimate the population from 2004 to 2020.
The matrix was varied by time, annual growth rates, and initial population estimates in
order to get a wide range of possibilities. Using three percent resident population as a benchmark,
the matrix results illustrate that the Dominican-American’s could potentially consist up to
ten percent of the Latino population by 2020. However, as it is explained, the net immigration
component could not be included due to the difficulty and nature of the estimation, and as such,
the results presented in the matrix remain an underestimate.
|
|
