- Thread starter badpiece33
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When will DR open for International travel??????
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Nearly everyone on the planet *will* catch this virus eventually if no vaccine is available.
Herd immunity is a different concept. When 80% or more of the population has immunity it is difficult for the virus to encounter a new host that it can infect. The number of new infections should fade to near zero as most of the herd is immune and cannot aid in the spread of the virus. That's herd immunity. The more immunity in the population, the harder it is for the virus to be spread to those who are not yet immune by random contact.
There currently is no herd immunity anywhere in the world that I know of. In most countries, much less than 50% of the population has been infected and recovered which is a long way from 80%. As the restrictions are eased and people move about more freely, whether they care or not, they are going to catch CV19 from someone else who is moving about. Without a doubt, the numbers of infected is going to rise. How high and how fast that rise in numbers will be is dependent on how people behave when they leave their homes. If everyone runs over to Grandma's house, they best not forget to say goodbye while they are there.
Those who are convinced that they will not fare well if they catch this disease have no choice but to continue to isolate themselves the best they can for many more months to come. Herd immunity for the planet without a vaccine in 2.5 years. Herd immunity for a country of 10 million people probably 10-12 months if the infection rate is managed. Throw open the barn doors and herd immunity in the DR could be achieved in 6 - 8 months but that would not be a pretty picture.
Well, as proof That he is right you can now see a real world test: Italy is opening up for tourists.
But most of the neighbour countries which have much less cases per capita will put their citizens away for 14 days appon returning. And they have travell warnings against going to Italy resulting in a legal troubles with the insurance.
get your Popcorn and watch Junes tourism numbers of Italy. I bet 5% of before with a lot of luck. Maybe US tourists who have higher cases per capita in the USA going for a escape with A little bit less risk.
Well what could be seen is considered rioting from a dominican point of view. And in most other places armed protesters entering a parlament get shot by police no questions asked.
Or maybe they should rename their next huelgaconstitucional right...
But in dominican forum its correct to call it riot.
Well, it could be intentional to not say who can enter to get that confusion resulting that the least possible amount of persons entering scared away - without the bad press when clearly declaring they can not enter.
This would be a surprisingly intelegent move if it realy was intentionally done. Dont need to get be beaten up by the US and CAN embassy- can say it was a misunderstanding.
That makes it even worse that
The results of a Spanish study on Covid-19 immunity have a scary takeaway
One of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the world isn’t anything close to a worst-case scenario.
www.vox.com
5% immunity in Spain and that after they went through hell and had more then 1% death rate.
this takes years to go to 80% even with the health system colapsing. And its 100000 Dominicans dead at the end ( based on real world numbers of a 1st world health system in Spain)
And I guess the immunity does not last many years, in fact no herd immunity at all if it takes too long to get there. (Mutations)
And there may never be herd immunity. And there may never be a vaccine that is effective. And there may never be a safe and effective treatment. And people will not stay home for month after month. And businesses will not remain closed month after month.
For sure because of the isolation taken, social distancing, there will be additional waves of infection regardless of if herd immunity applies to CV 19.
(By the way, from what I have read about CV19, herd immunity would be reached at about 60% infection of the population , not 80%.
If there is no herd immunity, the situation in the future is that eventually 1 out of 200 people, more or less, in the world are likely to die from CV-19)
That makes it even worse that
The results of a Spanish study on Covid-19 immunity have a scary takeaway
One of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the world isn’t anything close to a worst-case scenario.
5% immunity in Spain and that after they went through hell and had more then 1% death rate.
this takes years to go to 80% even with the health system colapsing. And its 100000 Dominicans dead at the end ( based on real world numbers of a 1st world health system in Spain)
And I guess the immunity does not last many years, in fact no herd immunity at all if it takes too long to get there. (Mutations)
Since we don't know the immunity potential quite yet , it is hard to claim any numbers like 5% in Spain or any duration of immunity. I do agree in general with your other points, but I think 0.5% is closer than 1% to the actual death rate of those infected when it is applied to the entire world. Still a very large number of dead people.
I do not have any specific insight into when the DRGOV should open back up to outsiders. Just an opinion.
I have always found the herd immunity concept (valid or not) to be interesting but I would not base my personal actions on it. It is some what like actuarial work in life insurance. They know pretty accurately how many people are going to die each year in their individual pools. But the do not know who. Herd immunity depends on each one of our personal immunity systems. The herd may be immune but I can still get sick and die. So not much comfort in that.
Comes down to personal risk assessment by everyone involved. I am sure there are people currently here that would also like to visit other countries. Hoping on a plane domestically or internationally is like riding on a bus in my youth. They are just sky busses after all. Others said it better than I can how you get treated when you arrive and return is going to be very important the travel decisions of the general public. I know it is something I think about.
I have always found the herd immunity concept (valid or not) to be interesting but I would not base my personal actions on it. It is some what like actuarial work in life insurance. They know pretty accurately how many people are going to die each year in their individual pools. But the do not know who. Herd immunity depends on each one of our personal immunity systems. The herd may be immune but I can still get sick and die. So not much comfort in that.
Comes down to personal risk assessment by everyone involved. I am sure there are people currently here that would also like to visit other countries. Hoping on a plane domestically or internationally is like riding on a bus in my youth. They are just sky busses after all. Others said it better than I can how you get treated when you arrive and return is going to be very important the travel decisions of the general public. I know it is something I think about.
[B]Yourmaninvegas[/B]. Statistical analysis indeed. Much like actuaries. I very much appreciate your comments.
Personal responsibility will be so important over the next period of time. Stay safe.
Personal responsibility will be so important over the next period of time. Stay safe.
So, after all the conversations about "herd immunity" when do you think SDQ will actually open for business.
SDQ has not been closed for operations. They have had limited operations, receiving and departing ferry as well as commercial flights, but they were never in a complete shut down.
Are you speaking of the RD opening up it's borders to visitors?
Apples and oranges.
August......but international travel to the DR will be unrecognizable from its prior heyday. Fewer flights, far less tourists, new safety protocols. This is going to be a 12-18 month story before it resembles anything like the past.
Respectfully,
Playacaribe2
I meant to type cargo flights instead of commercial flights. I can only be correct 99.9% of the time.
Many of those fretting right now are not concerned about family members, nor a much needed get a way to the RD after trying times on their end.
Their true preoccupation is that their novias, or in some circumstances novios are spending their Western Union money on other things besides food/rent/meds, and what it is they are actually doing during those open hours of the toque de queda when they can't answer their WhatsApp calls.
Ay chi-chi.
Their true preoccupation is that their novias, or in some circumstances novios are spending their Western Union money on other things besides food/rent/meds, and what it is they are actually doing during those open hours of the toque de queda when they can't answer their WhatsApp calls.
Ay chi-chi.
As I mentioned earlier, we came as snowbirds in Dec & didn't leave before they cancelled all the flights. Don't want to take a "ferry" flight to New York. Right now I'm seeing American has flights to other places (Chicago) starting in early June. Just wondering what our chances are of those actually happening.
Others are looking for more space, better weather and a pool to entertain the kiddos while trying to get some work done without having to sell a kidney to pay for it
On a side note, don't think I ever blocked so many people on Whatsapp than during quarantine, lol
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