The DR and the Recession of 2008

Naked_Snake

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Sep 2, 2008
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For the latecomers to this thread, to be fair, I think there is a reaction against Picardo's incredibly 'rosy picture' posts .. ;)

Point taken. I guess then that in a barrio he'll be treated as a regular "bocina", if you know what I mean.
 

Naked_Snake

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Sep 2, 2008
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Prices under Hipo were much lower than under Leonel. Food, RE, services, restaurants, everything.

Leonel is good for business owners who can get much higher profits than before and who represent less than 1% of the total population of this country.

But he is bad for the remainig 99% - regular dominicans and retirees-expats on fixed pension/SS income who relocated to this country in hope of a cheap and quiet last sunset years in life. With skyrocketed prices these people are screwed, taken and doomed.

But for RE agents, abogados and hotel/restaurant owners Leonel is good, it is true.

I agree.

Hopefully due to deep recession artificially manipulated, fixed and inflated prices will go back down to their normal, natural and human level and appartments and houses will go back to their normal price of $30 000 - $ 40 000 as of just seven-eight years ago from the today`s speculating bubble $150 000 - $250 000 unthinkeables.

It will be good for everyone and for economy and society in general. Except obviously those few people who rushed of greed and unawareness to overpay in several recent years, but it is their own fault only, nobody pushed nor forced them.

But none of us can not influence the situation, so let`s not be angry at each other for having and expressing different points of view.

Life is too short to allow negative emotions of hate and anger into one`s soul and mind.

Well, buddy, Hipo wasn't good for me, cuz' I remember that, while on my third college year at INTEC, the price of books, food, etc. started to skyrocket as if there were not a tomorrow. While I agree that prices haven't stopped their rising march, it's safe to say that they have stabilized themselves somewhat. The situation was so dire back then that a teacher of mine could not help herself but comparing it with the hiperinflation that Brazil experienced during the 90's, where everyone had to calculate the new exchange rate on a hourly basis.
 

AK74

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Jun 18, 2007
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Well, buddy, Hipo wasn't good for me, cuz' I remember that, while on my third college year at INTEC, the price of books, food, etc. started to skyrocket as if there were not a tomorrow. While I agree that prices haven't stopped their rising march, it's safe to say that they have stabilized themselves somewhat. The situation was so dire back then that a teacher of mine could not help herself but comparing it with the hiperinflation that Brazil experienced during the 90's, where everyone had to calculate the new exchange rate on a hourly basis.

Yeah.
Different people - different life stories and situations.

I communicate alot and close with many regular rank and file Dominicans. From them I hear one thing only - national economy and tourism are booming, fat cats get astronomical profits and keep them in their foreign accounts, but life for regular people becomes worse and worse.

As can be seen above, Dominicans do not demand to be paid higher. They demand prices to be lower.

People in the street want Hipo back. They want low afforable prices back.

Business owners and RE agents do not want low prices back. They are already spoiled with quick mind bogging profits. I know enough RE agents who live comfortably from selling just two-three houses/lands a year. It is not right.

Let`s wait and see who is stronger, more desperate, more determined. Who will win this war.

Difficult to predict now.
 

NotLurking

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Jul 21, 2003
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Yeah.
Different people - different life stories and situations.

I communicate alot and close with many regular rank and file Dominicans. From them I hear one thing only - national economy and tourism are booming, fat cats get astronomical profits and keep them in their foreign accounts, but life for regular people becomes worse and worse.

As can be seen above, Dominicans do not demand to be paid higher. They demand prices to be lower.

People in the street want Hipo back. They want low afforable prices back.

Business owners and RE agents do not want low prices back. They are already spoiled with quick mind bogging profits. I know enough RE agents who live comfortably from selling just two-three houses/lands a year. It is not right.

Let`s wait and see who is stronger, more desperate, more determined. Who will win this war.

Difficult to predict now.

AK74, it was not better for the Dominican people under Hippo by any stretch of the imagination. It was better for foreigners bring in foreign money in the form of retirement checks living fat and drunk off of the Dominican people's future. If Hippo was SOOOO good for the masses why didn't they keep him in office? He went as far as to modify the constitution so he can run for a second term.

It was so bad here under Hippo that even if you had the money you couldn't buy what you needed. One good example of this was propane another was gasoline. The Dominican people were losing any hope of a future with the ever rising exchange rate and general instability in the economy. Small businesses dependant on imports were closing left and right because of the constant and very devastating exchange fluctuation.

If Dominicans sold, what usually represented all they had, their car or their house under Hippo they were getting ROBBED by the exchange. A house that sold for RD$1,000,000 under Hippo era 2004 was worth about US$20k under Leonel in 2004 was worth about US$30k. Yes Dominican do get remittance and under Hippo the exchange favored them however the extra money gained on the exchange was almost completely sucked up by the Dollarizsed market that also had to buy dollars that were that more expensive. Many local producers went broke because the exchange rate priced them right out of buying equipment and chemicals required to produce their crops.

Then there was all the gems of economic wizardry like burning all the rice fields in the Cibao Valley so Hippo and family can import it from Taiwan and make a KILLING selling it at RD$23 per lbs an increase in price of almost 100%. Chicken feed that is also an import paid in US dollars made the price of chicken RD$60+ per lb. Rice, beans and chicken is the dish the typical Dominican eats, and so, Hippo priced these people, that BTW is the group that receives the bulk of remittance, in to desperation. One egg cost RD$5 and all Hippo could say was that if he were a chicken he wouldn't he lay an egg for RD$5. Brilliant! There was also 'Plan RENOVE' that cost the Dominican People US$2 Billion. The 'Bonos Soveranos' at a cost to the Dominican people of US$1.1 Billion. And of course the crown Jewel of the failed banks and the outrageous CB interest payments to Hippo's pals of 60% for all the drug and laundered monies of the like of Quirino and his ilk. Yeah I'm sure you are right the Dominican people were much better under Hippo :tired:

NotLurking
 

AK74

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Jun 18, 2007
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AK74, it was not better for the Dominican people under Hippo by any stretch of the imagination. It was better for foreigners bring in foreign money in the form of retirement checks living fat and drunk off of the Dominican people's future. If Hippo was SOOOO good for the masses why didn't they keep him in office? He went as far as to modify the constitution so he can run for a second term.

It was so bad here under Hippo that even if you had the money you couldn't buy what you needed. One good example of this was propane another was gasoline. The Dominican people were losing any hope of a future with the ever rising exchange rate and general instability in the economy. Small businesses dependant on imports were closing left and right because of the constant and very devastating exchange fluctuation.

If Dominicans sold, what usually represented all they had, their car or their house under Hippo they were getting ROBBED by the exchange. A house that sold for RD$1,000,000 under Hippo era 2004 was worth about US$20k under Leonel in 2004 was worth about US$30k. Yes Dominican do get remittance and under Hippo the exchange favored them however the extra money gained on the exchange was almost completely sucked up by the Dollarizsed market that also had to buy dollars that were that more expensive. Many local producers went broke because the exchange rate priced them right out of buying equipment and chemicals required to produce their crops.

Then there was all the gems of economic wizardry like burning all the rice fields in the Cibao Valley so Hippo and family can import it from Taiwan and make a KILLING selling it at RD$23 per lbs an increase in price of almost 100%. Chicken feed that is also an import paid in US dollars made the price of chicken RD$60+ per lb. Rice, beans and chicken is the dish the typical Dominican eats, and so, Hippo priced these people, that BTW is the group that receives the bulk of remittance, in to desperation. One egg cost RD$5 and all Hippo could say was that if he were a chicken he wouldn't he lay an egg for RD$5. Brilliant! There was also 'Plan RENOVE' that cost the Dominican People US$2 Billion. The 'Bonos Soveranos' at a cost to the Dominican people of US$1.1 Billion. And of course the crown Jewel of the failed banks and the outrageous CB interest payments to Hippo's pals of 60% for all the drug and laundered monies of the like of Quirino and his ilk. Yeah I'm sure you are right the Dominican people were much better under Hippo :tired:

NotLurking


Very good serious post, deserves respect and appreciation.

I cannot argue because I see that you know the matter much better than I do.

The only thing that I mentionned was that Dominican people SAY that their life now is worse than under Hipppo. Most of them do not elaborate.

But regarding expats/retirees I know first hand that with their fixed income they were able to afford much more than now. To eat out every day. Not once a month like now. And to buy a house or flat for cash from checking account, and not having to take mortgage like now.

It is a pleasure to communicate with an intelligent and informed person!
 

Malibook

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I just talked to a friend of mine who is a long time taxi driver at Playa Dorada.
He says everything is DOWN, DOWN, DOWN!!!!!:surprised

I told him that I read on the internet that everything is fine in the Dominican Republic.
He said that person must be rich or stupid.:cheeky:

He said that 2 of the Playa Dorada hotels are shutting down.
Puerto Plata Village and Carribean Village, I think.
That's hard to believe with the supposed high season coming up.
I expect tourism to be soft but for this season most should have been booked well in advance.
I could see many cancelling plans but are people cancelling booked trips?

Numerous AI tourists are extremely cheap but now the goods and services in the DR priced in US$ suddenly got a lot more expensive for many, which could make things much worse.:ermm:
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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People in the street want Hipo back. They want low afforable prices back.

That is truly one of the most scary things that I've read on the DR1. If the rank and file think or even speculate that Hipo is synonymous with low affordable prices, we're really in trouble and the level of education is dangerously deficient.
 

AK74

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That is truly one of the most scary things that I've read on the DR1. If the rank and file think or even speculate that Hipo is synonymous with low affordable prices, we're really in trouble and the level of education is dangerously deficient.

Very possible that you are correct. But people do not like changes that happened under Leonel. Just go to the street and ask anyone how much they are happy now.

Naturally I can speak only for fixed-income expats with whom I communicate, and their price perception also is that before Leonel they could afford substantially more with the same money/pension/retirement benefit.

Also you can easily compare RE prices seven years ago and now. In previous 25 years they did not change like in last few years. A friend of mine from Montreal owns an appartment in Blue Bayou from its very construction 30 years ago, since the time when people jumped from rocks to swim as there was no beach. What he paid originally changed only little by little until the time when Leonel came with his political and economic orientation.
 

planner

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Sep 23, 2002
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So much of what the people on the street hate would have happened regardless of who was in power. Maybe it would be a bit better or a bit worse depending which side you happen to side with.

As for pensioners and fixed income ex pats suffering here from rising prices - you think that would not be the case in the U.S. or U.K.? Prices have gone up there as well. Just listen to Fox news or CNN or whomever and listen to people whine about gas prices etc etc etc. It is no different. The economic crisis is eroding purchasing power. Period. Everywhere.

Yes it is drastically effecting the average person in the DR. Prices are higher. They are living on less. Tourism is down. The tourists we are getting on the North Coast are spending less and less outside the resort - be it on tours, eating out or shopping!
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
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Now let's get REAL numbers up and measure accordingly with the REAL situation playing out:


From DominicanToday.com front page:

Dominican economy to grow 5% despite woes, Central banker says.
SANTO DOMINGO.- Central banker Hector Valdez Albizu yesterday said the economy will grow 5 percent this year, well above the Dominican population growth.

He said after the Gross Domestic Product posted a 7.5% increase in the first half, reached 5.4% from January to September, despite the effects of the external shock. Communications grew 15.7 percent, financial intermediation and insurance 14% and energy and water 11%, he said.

Retail business also grew 10.1% and construction 5.3%, after growing 10% in the first half.
Valdez said agriculture declined 8%, blamed on the six tropical storms since last year, two at the end of 2007 and four between August and September this year.

The official, speaking at the Central Bank’s 61st anniversary, noted that the consumer price index in nine months was 10.76%, reaching double digits for the first time, in line with other countries in the region. He said these inflation levels result of the external shock’s effect as international prices jumped more than 72.5%.

Valdez said remittances totaled US$2.33 billion, or 5.1% higher than last year and earnings from tourism topped US$ 3.3 billion. Both figures are US$265 million more than the revenue in the same year ago period.

He affirmed the financial system’s indicators are strong; the exchange rate remains stable; there was a positive outcome of the current account, and the Central Bank’s quasi-fiscal deficit remains within expectations, despite higher interest rates.

Obstacles and Challenges

Valdez said the Central Bank is willing to take on the challenges and the actions needed to maintain confidence and macroeconomic stability, and called on the joint effort of all sectors.

"There’s no better proof of progress of a civilization than the progress of cooperation,” the Central banker said, quoting the English philosopher John Stuart Mill.


Dominican Banks chief slams the doom mongers

Santo Domingo. - Showing how the country’s macroeconomic numbers have remained stable, Banks, superintendent Rafael Camilo today criticized the people who say the global financial crisis will have a calamitous impact on the Caribbean nation’s economy. “We don’t have to inopportunely augur calamities for the Dominican economy, stirring pesimism.”

The official, speaking in the American Chamber of Commerce’s (AmCham) monthly luncheon, said it’s still premature to evaluate and predict the impact the crisis will have on the country, “especially when you don’t have all the elements to judge and make the right prognoses and without considering the peculiarities of our economy and of the external factors that affect it.”

“The future of the external economy in the short term is still uncertain and in an interdependent world like today’s nobody can raise with certainty the effect it can have on our economy”, Camilo said and cautioned that it’s the free zones sector that could be most affected, considering that the United States economic contraction and imminent recession will reduce consumer demand.



Now:

The AI closures "reported" by a DR1 here:
AI do shut down under several conditions in the DR, has happened uncounted times before will continue to do so in the future...

To address the announced closures as "results" of the economic crisis in the US is infantile and completely based on an assumed understanding of the reasons behind them. As a matter of fact, visits by tourists to the DR in this cycle are in keeping with last year numbers, no so growth. Understanding the difference between the two is paramount and needed to form an educated basis for the aforementioned opinion.

Remittances are up compared to last year= Last year 100 dollars, this year 105...
Remittances growth are down compared to last year= The year before last 90 dollars, last year 100, growth % is about 11.1XX % / This year growth was 5% only, yet remittances are GROWING...

Tourism:
Visits to the DR compared to last year are up; growth compared to last year is down... Do the math...

FTZ:
Demand for exports compared to last year is down in some sectors, yet others are experiencing a jump in purchase orders and derivative profits of over 25% compared to last year: Market corrections. The demand for products has turned into the basic necessities to be covered mostly, therefore only sectors within the FTZ are affected to certain degree. In the FTZ even exporters that are affected by the reductions in orders are balancing the effect as raw materials before controlled, are now allowed more leeway and therefore more savings at time of manufacture = costs are down = balancing the loss of orders to upswing in profits = stagnant growth.

But wait!!!! Here we have the experienced word of knowledge from some people, indicating that home prices will be slashed like in the current housing crisis of the US, complete hotel operations will fold tent and shut down in a domino effect, banks will follow suit as the US model and fail b/c of bad loans to actual values loses ( oh! doesn't happen here sorry!)....

For hotels closing in the DR, I can provide you a long list of those that keep shutting and re-open under a new owner/mgment all the time...

As I said before here: Give me ONE (1) piece of actual and tangible proof that the DR's economy is in crisis mode and we'll debate and find out the merits here...
Stop using homes aimed at foreigners and that represent palsy less than 2% from the actual housing market of the DR for your example of economic doom here.

Tell me where in Santiago and SD are homes in Villa Olga, Anacaona, etc... Selling at crisis values = ???????????

The DR economy is unaffected internally as of yet to any degree by the US crisis affecting equally all those that took part in the merry go round of sub prime and over grossly over valued stocks the same. They all ate the same cake and now have food poisoning... The US is not the market of the world nor is it the bread basket of the DR like 4 decades ago... Watch and learn a thing or two about micro-economics that rule today's LA countries...

Within 4 months there will be a re-aligning of the capitalistic model in use by LA countries and a new trade consortium between our countries will take effect, to allow the region to become fully independent of US financial sneezes and pneumonias...

The work is already being done and announcements will be made to the public once the critical bases are agreed upon.

*** I'm looking to buy the property at the corner of Ave. Duarte with Ave Benito Juarez... When will the Juan Dolio's price slashing get here?!? Even a modest 20% would do just fine with me... Any doomers for the taking here?
 

AK74

On Vacation!
Jun 18, 2007
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So much of what the people on the street hate would have happened regardless of who was in power. Maybe it would be a bit better or a bit worse depending which side you happen to side with.

As for pensioners and fixed income ex pats suffering here from rising prices - you think that would not be the case in the U.S. or U.K.? Prices have gone up there as well. Just listen to Fox news or CNN or whomever and listen to people whine about gas prices etc etc etc. It is no different. The economic crisis is eroding purchasing power. Period. Everywhere.

Yes it is drastically effecting the average person in the DR. Prices are higher. They are living on less. Tourism is down. The tourists we are getting on the North Coast are spending less and less outside the resort - be it on tours, eating out or shopping!


Yes, Planner.

I agree. Difficult times.

A lot of great buying opportunities forthcoming in a year or two, but only few people will have disposable and available cash left and protected from free falling stock market.
 

Matilda

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Sep 13, 2006
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Well I have a crisis! Brugal will not be delivering to my colmado until the mid/end November!!! Not enough Brugal being drunk in Juan Dolio at the moment! But they expect it to be better in a months time. Same with Frito Ley and Club Social and Helado Bon are more miss than hit at the moment. Even the Presidente truck and Coca Cola are having the odd week off when they feel like it.

Matilda
 

Malibook

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Dominican Banks chief slams the doom mongers
Even if the doom mongers were right, they would still get slammed, and probably blamed too.

Even if things were getting bad, the politicians would still try to paint a more rosy picture.

Numerous politicians, CEOs, central bankers, etc. claim things are just fine right before epic disasters.
Many people knew they were full of it way before this, regardless of their numbers.

I trust the first-hand personal observations of people like Planner and AZB more than cheer leading manipulative politicians.

Of course Dominican officials want to try to maintain a rosy picture, all countries do, especially the ones who have had recent dealings with the IMF.

This is like the people who claim that the US is not in recession because there have not been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
First of all, people can see the reality around them and secondly, this is not even the definition of a recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of US recessions and business cycles.

It's like the government telling me that inflation is only 2% when my bills are going up 10%+.:tired:
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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I wonder who really pays Picardo? ;)

But he has a point for sure. If some people are feeling a financial pinch, it does not mean that a complete economy is on the skids. It is just kinda impossible to believe that the DR will not be affected by the current 'world'wide crisis. Somehow if the DR has become a safe haven, I'm sure Brugal will continue deliver the goodies to Matilda.
 

Malibook

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But he has a point for sure. If some people are feeling a financial pinch, it does not mean that a complete economy is on the skids.
There will always be some people doing great, some doing okay, and some doing terrible.
It is all a matter of perspectives, proportions, and trends.

I don't believe either extreme view that all is fine and dandy or the complete economy is on the skids.
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
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Again! Give me a tangible proof indicating a crisis rolling out in the DR's internal economy:???????????????????????????????????

We export less than what we import from the US; the current credit crunch only goes to the benefit of our economy as Imports are reduced ever so strongly due to that.

Take what we export to the US and balance it to our imports; you'll notice that more than 65% of our current exports table to that country is not based on goods from FTZ, but mostly on goods from outside the FTZ bloc.

The FTZ exports account for volume, not positive flow for the DR.
The current crunch will provide a natural block to those goods that traditionally provide less to our economy and in return, provide a push to goods that seldom appreciated in those balances.

Matilda's Brugal deliveries are not indicators of our internal micro-economy at all.

Give me a tangible proof of economic doom rolling out in the DR... Not 100 or 10, ONE (1)...

Never said the DR is immune or dandy given the current crisis affecting major world markets, but it's something they brewed themselves and will have to gulp down alone. WE WILL FEEL THE PINCH BUT NO POISON WILL TURN US INTO A RECESSING ECONOMY IN THE SHORT OR LONG TERM FUTURE...

Once the DR is able to secure a food for oil exchange with Venezuela, the DR will have less need to secure US funds to make the biggest external pay outs in our balance sheet...

The DR produces internally over 97% of what we consume... We're the largest economy in the Caribbean, save none, and lead all other Caribbean nations in trade alone as well.

The coming days will provide clear proof of the dynamic which rules our local economy.

The balance of payment to power generators will be done without subsidy to the sector as a whole. Once again setting the gov free from a never ending hole.

Electricity will flow to those that pay their bills; those that fail to pay up will not get juiced up as before. The current subsidy to the electrical sector is the biggest drag on our economy, and the backdrop of the current world financial crisis provides the best stage to get rid of it once and for all.

The country generates more than what it consumes (if the people pay their bills and save energy unlike today free-for-all in some sectors) and can supply constant uninterrupted power to all people.

All we need is redundancy when several generators go out for maintenance and repairs, something that is envisioned via the transnational cable link from SA to the DR.

Santo Domingo will be one of the most invigorated cities of LA and the region...
The DR's economy will continue to grow and develop as well.

Will the US crisis affect us? It's affecting the world, why not us! But, the effects of such crisis are not even close to bring our economy into a home crisis or any kind, other than having to send food aid to poor families in the US in kind for their years of USAID in our soil...
 

Fishguy

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Oct 22, 2006
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The country generates more than what it consumes (if the people pay their bills and save energy unlike today free-for-all in some sectors) and can supply constant uninterrupted power to all people.

Not going to argue with any of your points except those are some pretty pink coloured glasses when it comes to the electricity issue.


From Wednesday's news, after AES shut down plants totalling 470mW:
As a result, the grid?s general deficit jumped to 856 megawatts to lower the output to 1,142 megawatts, though the demand is 1,998.


On Thursday, we got Segura talking out of his ass as usual:
The official acknowledged the constant blackouts in recent days after some plants were taken off the system because of technical, and not for lack of payment.


Then in today's news:
due to lack of funds it(AES) cancelled a natural gas shipment slated to arrive December 4, which will undoubtedly affect December?s energy supply.
 

AK74

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Jun 18, 2007
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typists wanted.

So economy of DR is OK and will be OK even without American, German, Canadian and Russian money coming in?

Without consumers` spending?

Without international credits?


Or there are local consumers to replace those stupid and unneeded Americans, Russians and Germans? And local super rich banks to replace bankraupt Wachovia and Lehman Brothers?

Who are they , if not a top secret?

Guys from Los Charamicos? From El Tablon?

Or those fifty super rich Dominican families will be selling to each other and buying from each other those niveras, lavaropas y ordinadores to maintain local economy even more high and flying above the rest of the world?

OK, it will be interesting to see los charamiquienios and los juandolioenos buying condos for quarter mil Am. Doll. formely intended for now broke gringos.

Will be interesting to see.

I do not know about others but I am really intrigued to watch rabbits jumping out of the hat of el mago.

The guy is cool. True. Cool.

His typing finger must be well developed .

I need typists BTW. Please see "Employment" section.
 

Malibook

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Jan 23, 2002
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Again! Give me a tangible proof indicating a crisis rolling out in the DR's internal economy:??????????????????????????????????
A lot of people seem to be indicating that they see things are getting worse, often much worse, regardless of your lengthy posts and those numbers.

I am more interested in the quality of life for the majority of the people and I'd like to see some survey results on consumer confidence and general well being instead of those numbers.
How are the employment numbers and are incomes rising more than inflation?
If the overall quality of life is getting worse, I don't see how your posts and those numbers will bring people any comfort, or food, or cervezas, or .......:tired:
 

PICHARDO

One Dominican at a time, please!
May 15, 2003
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Not going to argue with any of your points except those are some pretty pink coloured glasses when it comes to the electricity issue.


From Wednesday's news, after AES shut down plants totalling 470mW:


On Thursday, we got Segura talking out of his ass as usual:


Then in today's news:

The elec. problem fix up has more to do with dealing with the aftermath of cutting the subsidy and face the people used to, since Columbus time, to illegal hookups...

It's a tough pill to swallow...