Presidential opinion polls

I think many slowly realize that Danilo's government has been worse than Leonel's, as in same corruption but less economic growth. I only heard people as negative about 4 years more when Hipolito.

another poll: http://www.elcaribe.com.do/2016/02/02/encuesta-danilo-485-abinader-371-habria-segunda-vuelta

interesting article here: http://www.elcaribe.com.do/2016/02/02/gallup-responde-pld-sobre-diferencias-encuestas

It's good to see that the Dominican people don't buy Danilo's innocent face and realize there's more corruption in this government than Leonel's or Hipolito's.

I know Leonel was surrounded by a bunch of corrupt crooks but at least he had a clear vision of where the country should go. Danilo is nothing more than a populist.

He is not a populist since there are not massive give away, he is just a guy who enjoys dropping his goverment's pants and offer behind to any foreigner that ask anything...be that American, Haitian or whatever...

My view is that Danilo will win in the first round of voting , maybe 60 to 40% or perhaps a little more . In relation to the presidential performance of Leonel and Danilo ,it is almost to give a educated view until all the advice that they were given by the various departments can be analysed. In most countries , there is a 10 or 20 year rule on the release. My assessment of Danilo is that he is hardworking,cautious and honest and that he is unlikely to go against the advice given to him by the Governor of the Central Bank and a few other senior beaurocrats. I will not be around when we are able to judge him properly but I hope he gets a good report card.

Kipling333 said:

My view is that Danilo will win in the first round of voting , maybe 60 to 40% or perhaps a little more .

Click to expand...

You seem to have forgotten a tiny detail: DM won the presidency with 51%, escaping a runoff by a hair.

According to your "analysis", after 4 years of government, including many controversial decisions, loss of allies, corruption scandals, and the like....not only has DM managed to KEEP EACCH AND EVERYONE of the voters who supported him....he has done far more: he has kept all his voters PLUS added almost 1 for each 5 he previously got!

Unadulterated nonsense.

Of course it is technically possible for a president to keep the support he had as elected, and it is also possible for him to increase his support.

Possible, yes.

But it's extremely difficult to accomplish, unless there are very special circumstance. For example, he may have been elected in a 3-way election, with 3 major candidates, and reelected in the 2-way election. Another possibility is that there may have been MASSIVE improvement in the general well-being of the country (as measured by hard data, such as unemployment, inflation, GNP, crime rates, etc).

But none of the above has happened.

There is ZERO reason to believe that DM has KEPT the same level of support with which he started, much less that he has INCREASED his support.

The ONE poll that I trust (and I have solid reasons for that) has DM's support in the mid to high forties. And that is optimistic, among other reasons, because some people have difficulty admitting that they are against the government candidate when asked in face-to-face (non-secret) polls (they rather lie or not participate which tend to inflate the level of support of the government). The most likely range of support for DM is between 40 and 45 %.

This is not a new word but it has been taken out of the dictionary and I think it needs to be put back in because it is here now..
Kakistocracy
pl. kak?is?toc?ra?cies. Government by the least qualified or most unprincipled citizens. [Greek kakistos, worst, superlative of kakos, bad; see caco- + -cracy.]

i think this probably goes both ways. not a day passes without news that politico X resigned from party A to go to party B and the other way round. smaller local news sites and even FB pages dedicated to news are full of this. it's gonna be messy election for sure.

Do its really matters who's winning?

Dominican Republic president scores 60.3%: Gallup?Hoy Poll

http://www.dominicantoday.com/dr/lo...-Republic-president-scores-603-GallupHoy-Poll.
Its so sad to see the people here continue to vote for the PLD dictatorship of Leonel and his cronies. At the end of Leonel's term everyone called out he and his cronies for massive theft etc. Now here we are again, lost memory, given up, sellout for some free food vouchers etc etc. and they are about to do the same ol thing. I truly believe thepeople here really do not want change for the better, just like to complain about the hardships.

To be honest, I don't think those numbers are right.
I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just saying Gallup saying bs.

Judging from the reaction to his trip along the north coast the other day, I would say he's a clear favourite.

Polls can be bought, can be manipulated. My country just had elections, the government party was predicted 10 percent more than it actually got, the second strongest party was predicted over 15 percent and just got less than 6, the one being predicted 5 got 15, and a far right party was predicted 0.5 percent got 8... Believe the polls, I don't.

I do not think it is sad when you look at the alternative candidate and his total lack of policies.

even if the polls are a bit off, all he needs is 50% plus one vote and he is set...