Penn & Schoen Poll favors Leonel by 58%

Golo100

Bronze
Jan 5, 2002
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The Penn & Schoen poll will be announcing its latest opinion poll with 1200 interviews with a margin of 3% diff. showing that Leonel Fernandez would run away with the May 2003 elections if it takes place today. Fernandez would get 58% no matter what PRD candidate runs, be it Hippo, Milagros Bosch or Fello Subervi. The PRSC with the wolfman Estrella is not a factor at about 14-16%. Fernandez would win in the first run without need of a run off, but if it would be necessary, Fernandez would get 64% in a run-off. Most of the PRSC is in Leonel territory now.

The Penn & Schoen brought its own President to make the announcement and the key factor for this is the fact that El Caribe newspaper, which is owned by the Popular Group, belonging to Banco Popular did not extend a contract to Penn 6 Schoen or did not commission this polling firm, as it had done in the past, when Bernardo Vega was president of El Caribe. Vega left El Caribe and since he was a representative of Penn & Schoen, both were left out of El Caribe. Mr. Schoen indicated that he was commissioned by unknown business people to poll the election and keep their names confidential.

My own inpression of this whole deal is that the Popular Group headed by PPH front man Alejandro Grullon and his son, President of Banco Popular did not want Penn & Schoen to conduct a poll at this time because it would clearly show the unpopularity of Hipolito Mejia which carries thru a heavy coattail to the other PRD candidates and the PRD party. Knowing full well what the poll would show at this time, the Grullons fired Penn & Schoen and made life impossible for Vega. The Grullons, the financial brains behind the PPH could not find a way to reduce the damage and tried this. But it backfired and now the poll is out. So is Hipolito, if the elections were held today.

It seems to me that both the largest bank in DR and the largest communications group in DR which is promoting a dumb campaign called "Pa *Alante" which is specially designed for the PPH and was created to look like a political campaign ad, with workers campaigning in the streets and distributing flyers, has not been enough to help the bald asshole we have in the hot chair. This Pa*lante campaign was a follow up of the Hippo slogan "Cuidemos nuestro pais", which was turned into a campaign ad now running.

The arrogance turned into desperation of the PPH has forced Hippo into turning an official ad of the CDE into a political ad promoting the re-election of the bald wonder. This is the only time in our history where an ad for an official department of the government is used directly for a political campaign. Listin Diario, El Expresso and dozens of TV and radio stations have been taken over by Eligio Jaquez, Guido Gomez Mazara(the man without a U.S. visa) to push Hippo with little success. They have forced other stations to fire Hippo critics like Asela Lamarche, Julio Martinez P. and others, who have turned to internet pages to continue thier work.

Regardless, Hippo has to steal the election or direct a coup d*etat to return to power next August. A legal election without fraud would fire his ass in any scenario.

TW
 

Lurch

New member
Aug 8, 2003
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"Regardless, Hippo has to steal the election or direct a coup d*etat to return to power next August. A legal election without fraud would fire his ass in any scenario."


While I was on the island last weekend there was a dinner conversation where it was mentioned that there are substantial rumors of an impending flood of inorganic money (government printing money without any tangible support/backing).

I had assumed it had mostly to due with the December bonus schedule for his 400k government employees/PPH voters, perhaps he is going to try for a bit more.

December would be the optimal choice since he could partially mask the activity because of the traditional spike in hard currency being sent to the island from the US and EU for the holidays. However, it is never possible to hide this activity for any period of time.

Anyone hearing similar rumors? I wouldn?t like to be holding those CB bonds now, if I recall the magic number was about 38 to 1.
 

Golo100

Bronze
Jan 5, 2002
2,138
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inorganic money

The moment of truth will come on January and perhaps before for those who took 60 to 90 day certificates and decided to pull out. Will CB return their money? So far, BC has been paying interests on time via checks or direct deposit to personal accounts. I have a certificate due in January.

Wether the money is organic or inorganic matters little in DR. DR has always been a factory of inorganic money since Trujillo died. We are used to it and continue to live with it. Inorganic money costs more and taxpayers have to pay for their devaluation. Those who stay in this island and want to continue to enjoy the sun rising every morning on time and beautiful weather, have to learn to live with this and risk it. Otherwise, take a boat to New York, freeze to death and get up every morning to gray skies and try to live from your savings earning 1 or 2% a year.

I saw recently a list of poor foreigners and Dominicans whose names were published in the newspapers posting their lost Baninter certificates. I dont know where these people had their certificates to lose them all together and post the ad in the same paper. Perhaps they left the certificates in trust of the bank and now they are lost. Poor souls. Some ran as much as $4,000,000. But these people took the risk knowing this is a high risk society.

You could lose $1,000,000 pesos in a certificate after a gamble in DR, or keep your money in dollars($US$27,000) in Miami or New York and be worth nothing much. This is just pocket change. You can virtually starve to death in the USA or anywhere else with $27,000 dollars. You have to work for a living and at best buy yourself a poor man car, or pay rent for about a year in a low class neighborhood. So the risk is worth taken in DR.

I rather starve to death here and not in the good old USA. I believe as I always have that DR will continue to exist after Hipolito and beyond, and that with our increasing population, the business cycle will not stop. There are far too many people in the entire island, including Haiti, and more services and products are needed to support these many people. Business will continue to thrive and go bust in cycles, but the economy will remain. Some people will lose others will win. Its reality. You either have balls or you are a sissy. You either stay here or go suck tit in the North.

Just think, I have been here 10 years supporting my lifestyle with interest from certificates. I have earned more in interest in those 10 years than my capital was worth and I still have the same capital and more left. If I lose it all, which will take some doing, I would have lost nothing. I enjoyed 10 years of sun and nice weather, never worked a day in 6 years and created a safety nest or net from U.S. investments. Of course, if you spend it all in Presidentes you starve.

TW