Tropical Storm Alpha ... was ... Tropical Depression 25

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Chris

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Tropical Depression 25 has formed in the Eastern Caribbean. Formal Advisories are likely to begin at 11AM. If it were to become a tropical storm, it would be called Alpha since the regular list of storm names for the year has been exhausted.

From this evening onwards, we will start seeing heavy rains from this depression. It currently is about 200 miles South of Puerto Rico and is expected to pass Puerto Rico on the South side and then track across Hispaniola. It is still uncertain when and where, but, we will keep you updated as the National Hurricane Center starts their formal advisories. It may be that at the best we will see heavy rains, and at the worst, the system develops into a tropical storm here on our doorstep.
 
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Chris

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Tropical Storm Warning

At 11 AM a tropical storm warning has been issued by the Governments of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm watch for the Turks and Caicos and for the SouthEastern Bahamas.

The center of the tropical depression is located near 16.1 North and 68 West. The present movement is toward the WestNorthWest at around 12 miles per hour.

We are looking at the data now and will keep you updated.
 
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Chris

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This is what the forecast track looks like http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144732.shtml?3day?large

The center of this tropical depression is about 200 miles SouthWest of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 210 Miles SouthEast of Santo Domingo.

The depression is moving toward the West-NorthWest near 13 miles per hour and a turn toward the NorthWest is expected during the next 24 hours. Winds are near 35 miles per hour

The depression shows signs of becoming a tropical storm later today. By this evening, we should be seeing the first rains from this system.

The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulation of 4 to 8 inches over much of Hispaniola, with possible isolated amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.
 
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DunHill

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dsc08831.jpg


dsc08832.jpg


The normally nice and calm blue beachline is now dirty and the waves are beating, waterlevel is at least 40cm higher than normal

Will make another shot around 18:00
 
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howardruns

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DunHill, are you currently in the Dominican Republic (or are you taking photos via satellite or web cam)?

Howard
 
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Chris

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2pm Interim Advisory

Tropical Depression 25 is now nearing tropical storm strength

The Government of the Dominican Republic has changed portions of the tropical storm warning to a tropical storm watch.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Northern Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano NorthWestward to Cabo Frances Viejo.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Cabo Engano Westward to Pedernales on the Southern Border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A tropical storm warning for the entire coastline of Haiti.

Tropical storm watches for the Turks and Caicos and the SouthEastern Bahamas.

At 2pm the center of tropical depression 25 was located near 16.2 North and 68.8 West or 235 miles SouthWest of San Juan Puerto Rico and 175 miles SouthSouthEast of Santo Domingo.

The depression is moving toward the West-NorthWest near 15 miles per hour and a turn toward the NorthWest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the cyclone is expected to pass near or over Hispaniola late tonight and early Sunday.

Sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour with higher gusts. The depression is becoming better organized and will most likely pass us as a tropical storm.

Here is the satellite http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
An updated track will be posted as soon as it is available.
 
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DunHill

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It is the tropics, that means nothing is for sure, this can be over in a few days, or kick around for a week, but after rain there is always sun in the DR
 
Hillbilly

Hillbilly

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Nothing is going to happen.

Ten days from now, nobody will remember ALPHA

The storm track is to the wst of us, and all of the tourist attractions are east of us. North coast and South coast will be fine. Barahona is another matter.

Not to worry :p:p
HB
:D:D
 
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Chris

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Hillbilly said:
Nothing is going to happen.

Ten days from now, nobody will remember ALPHA

The storm track is to the wst of us, and all of the tourist attractions are east of us. North coast and South coast will be fine. Barahona is another matter.

Not to worry :p:p
HB
:D:D
Click to expand...

I'm old enough to have learnt to listen to the voice of experience... but the pictures say a whole lot of water is going to be dumped on us. Now, who do I believe, the voice of experience or what my eyes see... Darn.. another conundrum in my life...I wanted to give you a big smile here... but the forum says we have too many images in this thread... we are apparently limited to only 4 smilies, hugs, kisses and so on... Anyways, smilies, hugs and kisses to you!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8n.GIF
 
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Chris

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Based on observations the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Alpha. Alpha is the twenty second named storm this season and overall makes the 2005 hurricane season the most active on record.

Alpha is forecast to move NorthWestward for the next 12 - 24 hours around an anticyclone to the NorthEast, then recurve to the North and absorbed by weather to the NorthEast.

Alpha is forecast to slowly intensify in the next 12 hours prior to making landfall along the South Coast of Hispaniola. After weakening over the mountains, some brief re-intensification is possible, prior to the cyclone being absorbed into the larger system.

The most significant impact of this system is expected to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding over Hispaniola.

This gives you a good idea where this storm is now, in relation to us. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210051.shtml?swath?large

Great stuff Dunhill! You're my hero!
 
Hillbilly

Hillbilly

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Dear Chris:
You should know better than to use quotes!! HEHEHEH :p (1)
Regarding the "voice of experience" : While I don't know where "Dunhill" resides, I'm betting it ain't the North Shore. You guys just 'might' be getting some surf from Wilma! That is one huge baby.
The ALPHA will surely wet down a bunch of the DR, you are certainly right about that, but, except for the people down in the far south-Barahona, Pedernales area- this won't make much to do for the rest of the country. Romana and the east might get some rain and some fresh breezes, but not much more. Maybe higher than usual tides since the moon is up.
As foryou denizens of the North Shore, WHAT? It just won't bother you beyond losing a day and a half of sunshine.:p (2)

With the fondest of regards :D (3)

HB :D (4)-----I feel constrained with this new "smilie rule!!" Down with the Smily Rule!!!!!!!!!!!!

Major Revision of my wise - a$$ know-it-all comments.
The 5:00 p.m. map shows that ALPHA is veering more northerly than westerly and heading for the Ázua/Baní area, crossingover the Dominican portion of the Central Mountains. This means that:
1) Major flooding can most certainly occur inthe following areas:
The floodplain of the Yaque del Sur
The area around the upper Haina River and the areas around Valdesia
The floodplains of the Lower Yuna (Castillo and Pimentel)
The floodplains of the Lower Yaque del Norte (from Mao to Montecristi)
2) Important warnings, most certainly RED Alerts will go out to everyone in low-laying areas or along rivers, from a line drawn from Santo Domingo North to the Atlantic and then West to the Haitian Border. In other words about half of the DR.

Ol' Mother Nature squished the "voice of experience" ,,,,that's for d@mn sure!! (Blushing)
 
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DunHill

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Juan Dolio - southcoast - 20 meters from the beach - raining cats and dogs and warm water as well - elecricity back online - sea is brutal with a lot of garbage -
 
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Chris

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Hillbilly said:
Ol' Mother Nature squished the "voice of experience" ,,,,that's for d@mn sure!! (Blushing)
Click to expand...

Heheh! Thanks for the nice update on all the floodplanes. We're in the little town that Mr H's family helped establish.. so we'll no doubt see some of the flooding first hand.

I'll join the crusade - Down with the Smilie Rule - We want more smilies!
 
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DunHill

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18:15 local time Juan Dolio southcoast Dom.Rep.

Suddenly NO WIND - except for the local music everything is QUIET

See is wilder , +/- 60 cm above level, dark clouds are running on the sky

http://www.dunhill.ws/dr1/mov08850.mpg

Most locals don't even know what is coming, white big slow moving clouds, there under black running clouds, and a black wall in the distance


Let's see how long i can keep my satellite link online
 
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DunHill

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20:30 some rainshowers not too heavy, it looks like alpha is a girl and cannot keep directions.

2 Greek names left, tell that to the wheatergods in Africa, new garbage is sent and already on his way, like they want to beat the name race
 
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Chris

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Well, Tropical Storm Alpha is approaching the South Coast of the DR and will enter the island around 2am in the morning, around 20 to 30 miles West of Santo Domingo. It is expected to dump a lot of rain on us, as it crosses over the island and leaves by tomorrow around 12 to 1pm West of Puerto Plata, somewhere between POP and Punta Rucia.

Tropical Storm Alpha is moving at near 15 miles per hour to the North West and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center of the storm reaches the Southern Coast of Hispaniola.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles... So, folks in Santo Domingo, you will probably be woken up in the early hours of the morning with 30 - 40 miles and hour winds and heavy rains. (I trust all of Chiri's belongings are inside by now).

Again this storm is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain over much of our island - some areas could receive as much as 12 inches of rain. Floods and mudslides are almost a certainty.
 
Hillbilly

Hillbilly

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D@mn, and I have a golf game tomorrow morning!!

Veer, ALPHA, VEER!!:ermm: :ermm:

HB :D:D
 
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